BTC - Be careful, the macro trend is still very bearish

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dolar
Long-term I am extremely bullish on BTC             . However there is no denying we are in a crash pattern. Until we get some bullish signals on the daily chart I would be very careful injecting any more fiat into the market. Also,the macro movements of BTC             are difficult to predict, so the important thing to note in this chart are the price levels and their significance, not the overall pattern itself. As usual, your strategy should be changing based on any new data, and this data will be old as soon as you read it. Always keep that in mind! With my caveats out of the way, let's get started.

I believe we are currently in the "hope" phase of the crash pattern. This hope phase could continue on this leg as high as $10,200 or slightly over. My belief comes from the obvious signs on the chart, but also a few fundamental factors. First, no new money is coming into the market - the tether printer has been quiet and volume has dropped off whereas volatility has gone crazy. Furthermore, whenever BTC             booms alts sink - this means money is just being moved around internal to the market, but not being injected into the market from fiat (which would mean alts would not bleed as much).

Soon we can see a second collapse. This collapse could go as low as 6K although many traders are calling a bounce at $7,200. Either way we will see a run at least to previous lows ($8,500-$9,200) like we are seeing now. If these lows are not broken we will see a final collapse into the "despair" phase, at which point we will likely begin consolidating for a true bull season. Note that the prices and patterns shown on my chart are approximate. I do not try to predict timeframes nor exact prices, simply the overall market pattern.

In short, if you are trading in this market these are the key levels to look out for, in order:

$12K on this run: Bear trend officially broken, all these predictions are out the window.
$10,200 on this run: Likely maximum possible level for bitcoin             .
$6,000-$7,200: Next bounce level, due to strong support from previous bounce and plenty of buyers thinking it must be absolute bottom.
$8,500-$9,200: Likely maximum price level after this bounce.
$4,000-$5,500: True despair prices.

I appreciate any feedback - especially contrarian feedback. It's always important to have your views and opinions challenged, ESPECIALLY when analyzing the market! Thanks, and happy trading!
Komen: Welcome to the bull flag, we got blood and games!

If you have balls of steel you could play the bounce here, but you best have a tight stop, recognizing that the pink arrow is an equally likely possibility

Komen: *bear flag. Silly me. Can't edit comments, sadly.
Komen: Seeing some bullish divergences on smaller timeframes, so a bounce is reasonably likely.

Don't fall to FOMO (unless you day trade and already noticed this and entered a long at 8,900, in which case congrats for recognizing the divergence). I personally don't have the time to baby the charts and monitor the position, so I'm staying out of this one.

Komen: Semi-regular update on this idea.While the trendlines are rough / approximate, it appears we are just consolidating in this zone before another leg down. I find day-trading is for gamblers and bots, which is why the levels are so crazy - bots like to break trendlines and wash out peoples stops on either side. Still, the pattern isn't promising for longs no matter how you look it. Especially of note is that sell volume on the dips is much greater than buy volume. We could even break down today, although its less likely.

its over. without the tether cannon firing daily, spiking btc up inexplicably, people are starting to finally realize this was completely unsustainable. money is leaving the market now, not coming in.

bitfinex only allowing new customers with a minimum of $10k usd, no new fake usdt to prop up prices, tax season FORCING the biggest whales to liquidate and leave the market...especially in "bitcoin friendly japan" (note the 55% tax on big earners after $375k usd)

even with no fud whatsoever now, the market is barely limping along, on ever decreasing volume. $20k btc was a dream. $3.50 ripple, $1600 eth, $4000 bch...we wont see those numbers again for years.
+1 Balas
calcie henry7696
@henry7696, I disagree. I think we'll see those numbers within 12-14 months. Cryptocurrency is here to stay. However, my opinion doesn't matter at all, and I'm not going to buy into "hope." I will wait until I see a convincing bullish move and trade cautiously. As an investor and trader, it really doesn't matter what I believe, only what I see happen.

I'm sure people said the same thing when bitcoin crashed from $12 to $2, or the 2014 crash. It's really impossible to say.

thank you for your insight man.
"Soon we can see a second collapse."
BOOM! Happens! :D
+2 Balas
calcie Petronius
@Petronius, PURE luck, and don't let anyone tell you differently! The exact timing of swings in this market is impossible. To make money off BTC you have to have the patience and fortitude of a saint, usually!
+2 Balas
@calcie, Sure, but it was so funny ;)
+1 Balas
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