Analysis written on the chart. The basic idea is that RSI is diverging with price action. MACD is close to diverging, running flat on average over the same period due to a signal line crossover. Spikes in volume and price action suggests a "head and shoulders" pattern. If true, then the right "shoulder" could take the price down to the start of this pattern. Looking at the volume profile, there is a low volume area in the same zone. $6235 is chosen based on that area, plus the tail of the lowest volume hourly candle. This was the start of the H&S pattern.