During negative Coppock-times BTC used to reach Channel (1.618, 100) so extrapolating this (with low confidence), it may mean that this time BTC might go down and stay in the 8k-12k channel.
Weaknesses of the analysis:
- the "the average mourning period" parameter of might not be 11-14. Some even say that is fully invalid for cryptos.
- the hype might change the trend, both coinbase and reported the incredible number of people registering for crypo-trading, they might change the trend, bringing in enormous buying power. (Yet, even this case, I think that, down the line a real correction shall happen.)
So my superbiased "CI" for this rough, biased estimation is ~0,6-0,7, low, because I have never seen a hype like this...however, this is certainly NOT a trading advice (I am not a pro), just a biased, personal opinion, trading-tactics-sharing.
Calculate risk (cryptos are superrisky), use reasonable stops, check background technology deeply, avoid FOMO and have fun!
1) ~60-70% that if it is a regular ~30-90d correction, than within 1-2 days 4h RSI reaches under 15 and that is where the bottom is...(it might go up/down for a while)
2) ~10-20% that if it the long due 30-90w correction than 1w RSI shall go down under 30, and than BTC shall fall way under 8k
this is NOT a trading advice, just a biased tactics from an unpro, corrections/ideas welcome! Happy New Year...
It means (besides that my prediction was wrong) that unless an OBV-miracle happens than during the next RSI-down phase (springish) it is likely to go touch 30@RSI(1 day).
Lessons learned: at BTC 1 day basics: -10% in OBV seems to caused a fall to 50 MA (and not to 100MA as I, and many others thought)
On 4th of Jan, I thought that BTC has stabilized without going bellow 40@1d RSI due to the OBV stabilization, but I was wrong, I should have studied the weekly and monthly data better.
Based on Today's drop, I think that my original thoughts were OK: BTC 1d RSI is likely to reach 30-ish before going up, and it seems it just did enter the 8k-12k channel.
So it is an entry point for me for mid-term. (With stop sell and also exit at RSI 1 day 80ish area.)