It’s a fact that trading is not a simple task and need cautious moves especially when it comes to high volatile markets such as developing market structures like cryptocurrency market. Even though such markets seems very risky to predict it’s also a known fact that when you are trading considering different technical analysis studies and fundamental news supports it become investing rather than gambling. For most who doesn’t have that much clue about the power of technical analysis and its impact on the outcomes of the ROI figures and profits it seems gambling from their point of view. But it’s already been in effect over centuries in the history of human race ECONOMICS and for sure will continue to be too. By this I am trying to say that whenever you trade based on technical studies and fundamental study bases your chance of losing on your investment is very little with a high probability of winning your positions on your trades. On this post I will try to give some viewpoints and conceptual prediction mainly on the most probable outcome of Bitcoin. Before heading up to it I would like to say that whenever you trade don’t believe what is said because some who seems professional . It’s you who invested and it must be you who got to decide where to drop your pennies. For this it’s incomparable to decide without knowledge and with knowing what you do. If you are deciding your positions without knowing the technicalities you are simply gambling. You are just trying to get your luck come to you. If you are deciding your positions with knowing why and what you are doing it is for sure investment since you will know your risk portion and your profit margin too in addition to the fact that you will be confidently trading and get out from the market when your prediction come to its point. Hope you get my point so far.
Now let me get into the main topic of this post – Where Is Bitcoin Heading?
In order to don’t make you fade up extra bla bla’s I will put my points in a very short way and we can discuss about the issues on the comments section if you will have a disagreement or a question. Note that this post will discuss the longer time frame bound on the weekly chart and will give an insight on the longer outcome of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is trending for quite a longer time since it gets its massive media coverage starting from Mid-2017. It’s almost 2 years now since we started to see Bitcoin talks go up and down through the economic channel in all part of the world. Through 700+ days we have seen it pumping up crazy making many rich and dumping hard making many poor within hours or days. In recent moves it had showed a good reversal trend from its sleeping position around 3200 USD. After exactly a year it showed its all-time high price level it was on its lowest price level of 2018. After that, a good pump up in addition to main stream media coverage increment once again it begin to rise and have shown a good reversal candle pattern on the beginning of April. After that we have seen a good impulsive wave creation upto the past week in which Bitcoin reached 9000 USD which was a 3X increase in price in just 5 months. It even broke the downward channel created in 2018. So many was optimistic that we were going to test 10k level but it seems it is struggling for now for that. I have 2 main reasons for saying that we might be going to have a correction for now. These are:
1. Candle Stick Pattern: On the weekly chart we can see that Bitcoin showed a Doji candle stick pattern. It’s known that Doji’s can be bullish or bearish depending on the timing they are created and the shape they do have. On our current Bitcoin weekly chart we are seeing a doji candle stick which seems a bearish one. Doji is one of the most important Japanese candlestick patterns. When this candlestick forms, it tells us that the market opens and closes at the same price which means that there is equality and indecision between buyers and sellers which can be taken as there is no one in control of the market. When the opening price is the same as the closing price, this signal means the market didn’t decide which direction will take. Mostly when this pattern occurs in an uptrend or a downtrend, it indicates that the market is likely to reverse. When the market is trending up it means that buyers were in control of the market for the uptrend time frame. So the formation of the Doji candle stick at such times means that buyers are unable to keep price higher, and sellers push prices back to the opening price. This is a clear indication that a trend reversal is likely to happen right away. In most scenarios of the Doji candle pattern formation it indicates equality and indecision in the market and we often find it during periods of retesting after big moves higher or lower. So when it is found at the bottom or at the top of a trend, it is mostly considered as a sign that a prior trend is losing its strength and it might be the time to take profits. But on our case here this indication by its own can’t make it a point to short Bitcoin since we still didn’t close what the next candle is going to say which might be a bullish candle creation since we are having an equal decision power between the buyers and sellers as we said it earlier. If the current bearish candle also continue to form and close like this it will be a more strong confirmation on our start for a correction.
2. Cycle’s : You might have heard about cycles and their impact on life as a whole. Yes, cycles do have a big impact on every aspect of existence as a whole and it includes market trends too. Basically there are 4 known phases in market trends. Accumulation phase, Mark up phase, Distribution phase and Mark Down phase. And all of the waves in a market trend are included in these phases. It seems we are already ending up the 1st impulsive wave formation if things go right as I put it on the candles pattern formation and on some other additional factors which I will add up below. So if we agree on the ending scenario of the 1st impulsive wave it is going to be clear that we are on the distribution phase for the 1st Elliott wave formation.
Additional Major Indications
Elliott waves Formation: Since it is depicted on the chart I don’t actually go through the Elliot wave’s formation and it will actually need to go as depicted to fulfill the studies. And since we always have Elliott waves formations on every cycle’s formation we are now on the path of creating a 5 wave Elliott wave with an ending stage of the 1st impulsive wave and beginning of the 2nd correction wave.
RSI: RSI is now moving downwards already moving in the neutral state which is showing a downward move is starting.
MACD: Is actually in a bullish trend but is showing some signs to get towards the favor of the Bear’s in the near term.
Conclusion
Just to make it short let me jump to the conclusion I came up with on my analysis. In the meantime it seems we are going to see a correction for the next couple weeks or a little more than that for fulfilling the formation of a 2nd corrective wave and BTC will go to the stronger support area between 7200 USD to 7300 USD. Further it might also see some down moves up to the 7000 USD price level while trying to test the support created which was a resistance for the down trend channel formed in the 2018 downward trend. Depending on the strength of the demand and supply side of the market if the bear’s continue to dominate we might further go down to test the 50% and 61.8% fib levels at around 6173 USD and 5495 USD respectively in which the latter one is unlikely though if fundamental studies will help to boost the Bull’s strength on the time. By then I believe Bitcoin will start to form its 3rd impulsive wave up to 14751 USD.
