BTCUSD "Suicide or Homicide... and Multi-aspect analysis (2)"

What's up Traders!

Thank you so much for supporting my previous analysis. I didn't expect almost 16k views but sincerely appreciate you all.

So today I'll continue to talk about not only just the Multi-aspect analysis Ver. 2, but also the purpose of Chinese government's action in regards to Cryptocurrency industry from my own perspective. If you've missed my previous analysis, please check the link below first as it contains several connection.

From previous analysis, I've said It is important to check how BTC is going to answer regarding '52WK MA & 104 WK MA fractal' question. And it seems like BTC answered 'NO' as WKLY beginning price was printed right below 52 WK MA. However, this is Weekly candle and you know it ain't over till it's over. if BTC recovers its price, completes weekly candle above those lines and have similar pattern compared to previous fractal as I've covered from previous analysis, then most likely, it will repeat its price action itself which is a good bullish sign. If not, then it means BTC just confirms that we're going to have totally different scenario so we need to expect more bearish than bullish moving forward. That only means one thing. We need to be more conservative and change the proportion of our asset in Cryptocurrency until we confirm inflection point from bearish.

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Now with given info (BTC said 'no' to previous fractal'), WHAT KIND OF QUESTION SHOULD WE ASK NEXT? What do you want to know about BTC?
I'm pretty sure the question that most of you guys want to ask is, "Hey BTC, so until what price are you going to drop?". Let's talk about this right now by looking at next support line and figuring it out whether this BTC drop is Suicide or murdered by someone else.






<1st Horizontal Support + Diagonal support -> 'Green horizontal line'>
As shown above, Green horizontal line is horizontal support which is formed due to long consolidation phase during 2018. According to Coinbase chart, it's on $6700 area. On top of that, there's a Diagonal support(Black dotted line) coming from all time high, December 2017, to June 2019. This Diagonal line was converted to support line as BTC has broken above in June 2019. And what's really important here is that there's a point of contact where these two lines meet together, forming strong support area. When two different signals meet at the same point and if price touches this point, reliability surges when it comes to winning odds. Even if BTC fails to hold this point of contact, it's too early to say BTC is over. As I said from the previous analysis, takeaway from recent price drop(failure of support $8,000 area) is that BTC is giving us a signal that 'We are not going to reach $15,000 this year'.


<2nd Horizontal Support + Diagonal support -> 2nd Green horizontal line>
If BTC breaks below the 1st green line, then our next support is near $5,500 area. It's better to wait and jump in here. I want to take a moment to highlight the pink dotted line as its reliability is even way greater than the 1st one and it means a lot to BTC. Based on its structure, it is located around December and Jan 2020. Of course it varies depending on its angle and velocity.
What if we fail to hold this area? Well, you don't even wanna think about it. This is going to be a nightmare. It will take much longer than what you're expecting (time) and/or have aggressive correction (price). Thus, it is the area that has substantial meaning and support for BTC. Please keep this in mind. The next support would be $4200 from WKLY perspective, but it's too early to talk about this area. Will post it if it's time to talk about it.



Now,

BTC dropped from $13,800 to $6,700. Is this the end? Is this Suicide or Homicide?
Well, I personally think it is homicide because the value of BTC or its mechanism still remains the same. Then who's it? As you know, this chinese government has way more power and influence than what people think in this industry. Ex) their president's recent announcement which led to over $1,000 surge. Chinese police raid one of the most popular exchange, and caused price drop. This could be fake news. I don't trust media and I don't even know if this is true or not as rumor and such news are not even my trading criteria. But what I wanted to tell you is that you may think the Chinese government is the suspect, but there could be one more group that must be on the usual suspect list if this is not a self-produced story by the Chinese government. I can't specify that group, but please look at the purple circle above on the cart. This price drop occurred before we have a surge from China's announcement. This purple circle was giving us a signal that if we fail to have higher highs then we're going to have continuous bearish trends. However, so many people ignored this signal or couldn't be cautious even if they knew it as china's announcement with over $1,000 surge in one day made people go blind and they thought this will continue.


I believe that their government will continue to regulate its industry to take enough control. This is my personal opinion and assumption is solely based on the possibility that they really think this blockchain industry is worth it and cryptocurrency is one of the keys to monopoly.

Since 1980, china has been changing its economy structure due to low efficiency by abolishing old mechanism and by separating ownership and management. But still many people raise concerns and doubt it. They're saying most of the major companies are still under their control and they all belong to the government such as Z**, L**, and H**. I can understand why our Mr. President got so mad about H** telecommunication company. Anyways, if that's how the Chinese government thinks about cryptocurrency industry, then most likely we will have a strong support from the 2nd green horizontal line. Their purpose could be something else, of course, because I don't work for them and I don't even speak Chinese. However, as it's always been, BTC will let us know and give us a signal whether this is not true and where they're going. The chart will tell you what it is.




P.S. If everyone sees support near the same price, then most likely it will be broken way below that line as S&P 500 broke above the resistance that most people thought that's resistance. I'll post more about this and different aspect analysis next time. If you don't know at what price to jump in, you don't have to trade. You can just wait, confirm its inflection point and then jump on it. That's one of the most benefits and advantages that fund managers want to have.

Thanks,

After all, only Traders who have right strategies that penetrate markets will survive, not people trading with luck or without criteria.