Well not so easy - this is a very complex chart, but it does rhyme.
So back in July the no.1 thing that caught me off guard was how price squeezed without full capitulation to form a breakout. I thought that there must first be capitulation to then form a bounce which could potentially become a breakout.
And its probably not hard to see why. In previous cycles BTC never formed a squeeze breakout, it was always a harsh capitualtion to the continue both in bear and bull markets as can be seen by the highlighted areas.
But then in 2021 correction / bear market the algos changed the playing field and the game changed. BTC no longer would form full capitulations but rather would form these rather unusual squeeze patterns that I struggle to find examples of in asset classes. You might say they somewhat reverse on thin air but reverse they do and this is also why I was very surprised that BTC bounced to find a higher high. A would have thought a squeeze would be much weaker than a bounce, but apparently not with BTC - it has its own rules different from every other asset class.
Anyhow, you can see from the chart that BTC breaks out on squeezes not capitulations these days. You could say that Jan bottom then breakout was both a capitulation and a squeeze, but price did not collapse down and away from the long wedge - it was all within the same measured confine before a squeeze upward.
And now this January breakout is starting to resemble the fractal structure the A and B leg from July breakout highlighted. And as you can see the current highlighted structure is much smaller. This seems to indicate that the entirety of this upward move will be smaller and probably a 1:1 ABC and probably not a 1:1.618 with C wave extension.
Looking back to the July A wave - the B wave retraced slightly above the 0.5 fib @ 39.3K. Now if this current fractal repeats in ratio then it will also bounce just above the 0.5 - so thats just above 39K. If it starts drifting too far below 39K then I think it will be time to consider price is taking a new and more bearish path.
If you look at blue fib target (1) @ 54.5K, it is roughly drawn because I do not yet have the 3rd pivot, but if I guess that it reverses just above 0.5 retracement then then it can top out right in the middle of the 0.618-0.75 band highlighted. Also in that area would be September resistance which will have heavy selling pressure should BTC get there. And if it did reverse in that area then BTC would most likely be forming a head and shoulders topping pattern which would take price much lower.
So also to rebut @Tonpanzee that thinks this sell of (assuming to lead to much more downside) was "not hard to see" and that a fall below 40.5K would be curtains for BTC - well perhaps and I wouldnt disagree that there are almost certainly more skilled chartists out there somewhere (who dont post on TV - they are too busy making $$$ 😄) who easily saw this sell off coming, but is that conclusive that this will lead to a much more significant breakdown? - well I think it can still find fractal symmetry reversing around the 39K for another squeeze up area so we'll see.
And thats not to criticise @Tonpanzee who appears to be very much in the minority of people that view my pages that are actually grafting. It would be nice if a few more like him viewed my pages, but not enormously significant - I giveaway my output for fun.
And dont forget my long term target is as it has been for a year - 20K
Not advice.
So back in July the no.1 thing that caught me off guard was how price squeezed without full capitulation to form a breakout. I thought that there must first be capitulation to then form a bounce which could potentially become a breakout.
And its probably not hard to see why. In previous cycles BTC never formed a squeeze breakout, it was always a harsh capitualtion to the continue both in bear and bull markets as can be seen by the highlighted areas.
But then in 2021 correction / bear market the algos changed the playing field and the game changed. BTC no longer would form full capitulations but rather would form these rather unusual squeeze patterns that I struggle to find examples of in asset classes. You might say they somewhat reverse on thin air but reverse they do and this is also why I was very surprised that BTC bounced to find a higher high. A would have thought a squeeze would be much weaker than a bounce, but apparently not with BTC - it has its own rules different from every other asset class.
Anyhow, you can see from the chart that BTC breaks out on squeezes not capitulations these days. You could say that Jan bottom then breakout was both a capitulation and a squeeze, but price did not collapse down and away from the long wedge - it was all within the same measured confine before a squeeze upward.
And now this January breakout is starting to resemble the fractal structure the A and B leg from July breakout highlighted. And as you can see the current highlighted structure is much smaller. This seems to indicate that the entirety of this upward move will be smaller and probably a 1:1 ABC and probably not a 1:1.618 with C wave extension.
Looking back to the July A wave - the B wave retraced slightly above the 0.5 fib @ 39.3K. Now if this current fractal repeats in ratio then it will also bounce just above the 0.5 - so thats just above 39K. If it starts drifting too far below 39K then I think it will be time to consider price is taking a new and more bearish path.
If you look at blue fib target (1) @ 54.5K, it is roughly drawn because I do not yet have the 3rd pivot, but if I guess that it reverses just above 0.5 retracement then then it can top out right in the middle of the 0.618-0.75 band highlighted. Also in that area would be September resistance which will have heavy selling pressure should BTC get there. And if it did reverse in that area then BTC would most likely be forming a head and shoulders topping pattern which would take price much lower.
So also to rebut @Tonpanzee that thinks this sell of (assuming to lead to much more downside) was "not hard to see" and that a fall below 40.5K would be curtains for BTC - well perhaps and I wouldnt disagree that there are almost certainly more skilled chartists out there somewhere (who dont post on TV - they are too busy making $$$ 😄) who easily saw this sell off coming, but is that conclusive that this will lead to a much more significant breakdown? - well I think it can still find fractal symmetry reversing around the 39K for another squeeze up area so we'll see.
And thats not to criticise @Tonpanzee who appears to be very much in the minority of people that view my pages that are actually grafting. It would be nice if a few more like him viewed my pages, but not enormously significant - I giveaway my output for fun.
And dont forget my long term target is as it has been for a year - 20K
Not advice.
Komen:
Comments, charts, on chain analytics, fundamental considerations - all welcome.
Komen:
Price just tagged the "fakeout low " which I'm now going to change the name to "B low" as it seems more relevant.
Also more downside from indexes so BTC is moving with them currently.
I'm expecting the bounce to come somewhere in this area, but we'll see.
Also more downside from indexes so BTC is moving with them currently.
I'm expecting the bounce to come somewhere in this area, but we'll see.
Komen:
Bears posting their bearish rebuttal charts on my pages 😂. BTC 300K EOY bro!!! 😂😂😂
Next video Saturday 22 June😼.
Hodlers assume an obvious next wave up but will there be a sting in the tail💀.
Deep analysis - I keep the juicy details for my clients.
Telegram Group: $50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
Hodlers assume an obvious next wave up but will there be a sting in the tail💀.
Deep analysis - I keep the juicy details for my clients.
Telegram Group: $50 per month 👍🏻.
Contact: t.me/dRends35
