DrJLT

Bitcoin: How will it break out?

Panjang
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
It appears that the week-long correction has finished. In the end, we retraced less than 0.5; this suggests that the bears are rather weak (even though the bulls haven't been performing). The latter can be explained by two factors: 1. new money isn't coming in as it did in Nov / Dec 17, 2. Chinese NY holidays.

In maintain my view that the crashes have been inorganic. Investors weren't selling; it was rather manipulators & day traders that sold. In my YT video, I made some guesses regarding the motives of the manipulators.

At this point, we could roughly still have a H&S within H&S


The .786 level from the bottom (blue dotted line) is a resistance. While we're forming an ascending triangle, I'm not convinced that a direct breakout will take place, for the oscillators show overbought condition & the bulls are still not determined. A possible scenario is therefore a small drop, preferably slowly, to 9.8k before regaining momentum.

Then, we have the downward resistance line that connects the ATH, the bull trap high, & roughly the top of the recent crash.

With all the improvements on bitcoin / crypto's fundamentals as well as BRIGHT outlook (I predict 100k in 2018), to me there's no doubt that a breakout will happen sooner or later, but my crystal ball doesn't work that well for the mid-term.

At this point, I also don't think it's wise to start counting waves. That works better for the longer term.

Having said that, it only takes one pump to reach 12k.

Penafian

Maklumat dan penerbitan adalah tidak dimaksudkan untuk menjadi, dan tidak membentuk, nasihat untuk kewangan, pelaburan, perdagangan dan jenis-jenis lain atau cadangan yang dibekalkan atau disahkan oleh TradingView. Baca dengan lebih lanjut di Terma Penggunaan.