100/90 Put Vertical Credit Spread @ $1.85
Prob. of Max Profit = 68.04%
Prob. of Max Loss = 11.34%
Break-even @ $98.15
Entry by oversold + analysis
Expecting old gap-up at $104.50 to hold after recovering from breakdown test on 12/04/17, until Mar.'18 expiration.
RISKS: Break-even within the at-the-money straddle expected move by expiration; bid/ask spreads ~$0.23 on entry; announcement before expiration.
Expecting to adjust to minimize loss if price tests break-even level and consolidates.
Approaching date will be used as needed to roll spread - to take advantage of swollen IV - unless trade is a quick loser before then.
Risky trade requires more days to work and to allow room for adequate adjustment.