ES/SPY Weekly Levels & Trade Prep (Mar6-10)
SUMMARY
• ES posted a 1.96% gain last week after trading in a range of 165 points
• Price closed back above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• All S&P Sectors closed the week green except the defensive XLY & XLU sectors. The XLB & XLI sectors posted the biggest weekly gains. Adding 4.20% and 3.35% respectively
• ES will start the week above the 4000 psychological level.
• ES reclaimed the long term downward trendline & the shorter term ascending trendline.
• Key support below is the downward trend line and the 618 Fib/200 SMA zone (green box).
• Key resistance above is the 618 Fib RT/ Dec 13th High zone (red box)
• Narrative has flipped again to Fed pause/pivot after dovish speech from Bostic.
• Econ happenings this week include 2 speeches by Powell, BoC Rate decision & Non-Farm Payrolls
• Earnings season is winding down with limited companies of interest reporting. Most notable are CRWD, DOCU, JD, DKS, ULTA & ORCL
• Important to watch bond yields closely. It would be very bearish if the 10y yields rise above 4% again.
• Market is currently reacting to bullish technicals more the bearish fundamentals.
• Be mindful that most recent vertical moves have been retraced.
If you find my posts helpful and/or informative pls like and share. Comments welcome. Trade well and good luck everyone.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Factory Orders
Tuesday Powell speaks & US Wholesale inventories
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change, US International Trade, JOLTS, BoC Rate Decision & Powell Speaks
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims & Fed’s Barr speaks
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday CIEN, TCOM
Tuesday CRWD, DKS, MANU, SE
Wednesday CPB, PBR
Thursday BJ, AUY, DOCU, GPS, JD, ORCL, ULTA, WPM
Friday FUTU
BULLISH NOTES
ES back above 9/21/55 emas & 200 SMA
Bullish weekly close above downward & ascending TLs
Potential move back above Dec 13th Pivot high
Potential positive reaction to Powell speeches
Potential positive reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Entering a historically bullish period for stocks
Massive short covering possible above Dec 13th High
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at resistance zone (red box)
Potential negative reaction to Powell speeches
Potential negative reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Most vertical moves have been retraced in recent months
Bond yields may move above 4% again
• ES posted a 1.96% gain last week after trading in a range of 165 points
• Price closed back above the 9/21/55 emas & 200 sma.
• All S&P Sectors closed the week green except the defensive XLY & XLU sectors. The XLB & XLI sectors posted the biggest weekly gains. Adding 4.20% and 3.35% respectively
• ES will start the week above the 4000 psychological level.
• ES reclaimed the long term downward trendline & the shorter term ascending trendline.
• Key support below is the downward trend line and the 618 Fib/200 SMA zone (green box).
• Key resistance above is the 618 Fib RT/ Dec 13th High zone (red box)
• Narrative has flipped again to Fed pause/pivot after dovish speech from Bostic.
• Econ happenings this week include 2 speeches by Powell, BoC Rate decision & Non-Farm Payrolls
• Earnings season is winding down with limited companies of interest reporting. Most notable are CRWD, DOCU, JD, DKS, ULTA & ORCL
• Important to watch bond yields closely. It would be very bearish if the 10y yields rise above 4% again.
• Market is currently reacting to bullish technicals more the bearish fundamentals.
• Be mindful that most recent vertical moves have been retraced.
If you find my posts helpful and/or informative pls like and share. Comments welcome. Trade well and good luck everyone.
WEEKLY EVENTS
Monday US Factory Orders
Tuesday Powell speaks & US Wholesale inventories
Wednesday US ADP Employment Change, US International Trade, JOLTS, BoC Rate Decision & Powell Speaks
Thursday Initial Jobless Claims & Fed’s Barr speaks
Friday US Non-Farm Payrolls
NOTABLE EARNINGS
Monday CIEN, TCOM
Tuesday CRWD, DKS, MANU, SE
Wednesday CPB, PBR
Thursday BJ, AUY, DOCU, GPS, JD, ORCL, ULTA, WPM
Friday FUTU
BULLISH NOTES
ES back above 9/21/55 emas & 200 SMA
Bullish weekly close above downward & ascending TLs
Potential move back above Dec 13th Pivot high
Potential positive reaction to Powell speeches
Potential positive reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Entering a historically bullish period for stocks
Massive short covering possible above Dec 13th High
BEARISH NOTES
Potential rejection at resistance zone (red box)
Potential negative reaction to Powell speeches
Potential negative reaction to Non-Farm Payrolls
Most vertical moves have been retraced in recent months
Bond yields may move above 4% again
Komen:
$ES made strong bull move this morning but was rejected at the 50% level and retraced 100 percent of the move closing near the opening price. I am not expecting a trend move until after the Powell hearing starts tomorrow.
Komen:
$ES_F has parked itself just above the 200 SMA following yesterday's sell off Now waiting on Powell testimony again. Of note that the ES is now back below both the descending and ascending trendlines which leans more bearish. Will be focusing on a break of the overnight range for trades today.
Komen:
$ES_F now below the original posts green support box after yest' sharp rejection of the 21 ema. Down side targets are 50% and Dec 22nd low. Upside resistance at the 200 sma and 21 ema.
