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Panjang

Ethereum - Rally (75%), Disaster (25%)

BITFINEX:ETHUSD   Ethereum / Dolar
This chart goes beyond technical analysis .

Alright, so why I am bullish on Ethereum? I will list my reasons.

1) Green Hammer candle on daily.
2) Closed above my teal parabolic trend.
3) Broke yellow trend line support level but recovered.
4) Approached red support level but recovered.
5) Did NOT break the purble parabolic trend, which is the MAIN support drawn from several months ago.
6) We just finished a H&S .

But...
1) We are up against the main down trend that's drawn from the ATH             .
2) We are also up against the orange trend line acting as resistance which can also be somewhat of the H&S neckline, just a bit slanted.

I think Ethereum             will not go through the purple parabolic support and it's in a position to go up and breakout. So I disagree with a lot of bears using fib retracements or somehow indicating drops to 400 or 600 level. I don't even think they understand fib retracements.

If we believe that the purple parabolic support cannot be broken (I am a believer), then it is time for Ethereum             to blast through this annoying down trend. It can take a few days though and we can still have minor pullbacks.

6 reasons for it to rise and 2 reasons for it to get disastrous. I calculate a 75% chance that we are going to rally, and a 25% chance we actually break the purple parabolic support, (which will cause my chart to break and hand things over to the annoying bears who want cheap entries).

I am just a bit concerned that on my previous analysis of Ethereum             - "Ethereum Could Bounce", I stated if we hit 740 then I don't think this is a dead cat bounce and we have fully recovered. For some reason, my numbers are getting hit almost spot on. GDAX right now has Ethereum             at 740 as of this writing. I am hoping whales are not reading my charts and then trying to screw me and everyone else by dumping their 650 buys this weekend. We'll see.

As always, this is not financial advice, just my interpretation of what's going on and what I think will happen.

Thanks for looking and have a good day.
Komen: If we have a drop below $600 in the coming days and also close below ~$600 (below purple), this chart can be in the disaster category.

The idea as of now is still alive.

Low volume does worry me quite a bit. Volume hasn't been this low in a while, but price ultimately has to do with buying and selling.
Komen: Some more information:

The last time we had 7 red candles in a row on the BTC daily, BTC dropped from 4694 to 2975 (using GDAX numbers). That is about a 37% drop. We are experiencing another drop similar to that one, and based on the 37% number, we can drop to 0.63*11660 = 7350 for the Bitcoin. Since Ethereum is 0.079 of a BTC right now, that would make Ethereum drop to around ~$580 which would push it below the purple trend. The disaster case is not impossible, but I am finding difficulty that Ethereum goes significantly lower after that price point (if it occurs).
Thanks! I noticed this support level as well, is very obvious. Looking for an entry reason in the next week or two
+1 Balas
i like it, lines up well with the eth/btc pair
+1 Balas
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