ETH - Road to $300-$500 needs to cross this hurdle

I've highlighted this possibility of a mid-term rally in my macro bearish chart posted here in Dec, as mentioned, the price did get support at the 0.618Fib region and bounced hard and currently facing resistance at median line of the blue channel which also happens to be 0.618Fib of the entire move down from 2019 highs (red box)

The current bounce was predicted precisely here

Bulls can expect a correction here to consolidate and break out in strength to reach the channel top for
T1- $350
T2- $500+

After which I still expect a correction to make new lows for this bear market, green and red arrows mark this possible move

So this move is being considered as an ABC, and we appear to be finishing the 1st subwave of the C wave now

Bears would expect the price to be rejected here and break below the blue channel, this possibility is marked by the dotted red arrow

Overall, I still think the correction for the entire move up to 2017 highs is not done yet, but there could be a new local top in 2020 before resuming the downtrend

Summary: Short-term expecting a correction, then bounce in the mid-term and new lows in the long term to bottom out

Play Safe

Previous idea

Komen:

Zooming out to monthly time frame, price had a fakeout wick above the median line. Unless we break above it ($240-$250), assuming the red dotted arrow scenario is in play

This looks similar to $BCH

Dagangan ditutup: sasaran tercapai:

Our assumption about the fakeout wick was accurate and price indeed followed our dotted red arrow and dropped out of the blue channel