NIFTY: OCTOBER ANALYSIS

Hi all 👋 this is my current take on Nifty.

✅Nifty failed to break out of the resistance line, which I have stretched from October 2021 highs, at two occasions, that is in August and September 2022. There was a breakout of the 18000 level but this break failed near April 2022 swing highs. Thereafter, Nifty had a vertical reaction in September.

✅This reaction has been holding near a prior key resistance area of 16800. As we always say that a prior strong resistance area once taken out may act as a support in future, it happened in this case.

✅For Fibonacci traders, 16800 is somewhere between 38% and 50% retracement of the sharp rally from June lows to September highs. So, 16800 is surely a key level to watch out for. It Nifty breaks and sustains below this level, it will be more bearish and I will be looking for 16000 or lower levels once again. As long as market is above 16800, an opportunistic approach might work.

✅The opportunistic approach would be to look for buying opportunities near support areas and sell opportunities near resistance areas. Let us see where are those levels.

✅If you look at the chart there are two other important levels (might be more visible on lower timeframes), that are 17160 and 17500. Nifty broke both the levels with massive force but it has managed to hold above 17160 once again.

✅As long as it is above 17160, I will be looking for 17500 or so. In between there is a gap area at 17327 which may also act as resistance.

✅If Nifty manages to get back to 17500, there might be a reaction because there are multiple resistances near that level. So, a move back to 17200 cannot be rules out.

✅The price action of the last two months is hinting that market could remain sideways in near future. As long as Nifty is above 16800, I expect Nifty to remain choppy and look for opportunities on lower timeframes.

I would leave this analysis here and wait for further price action to make or mend my views.
Thanks for reading.

Komen:

On lower timeframe