NQ/QQQ Weekend Look (Feb 7-11)

Here is the weekend look at the NAS/QQQ going into the trading week of Feb 7-11th. Last week the NQ started out below the 9 ema and the 200 sma as well as below the red neutral box. Price rallied strongly the first half of the week back above the 200 SMA, but then gapped down almost 2% on the FB earning miss Wednesday then gapped back up on Friday after the AMZN earnings. The swings have been wild the past few weeks and the only certainty right now is that volatility will continue. I posted a weekly chart on Friday showing that despite the wild swings in price the NAS hasn't actually gone anywhere in the past two weeks. The take away from this is that the market is undecided and is waiting for new information.

Going forward we have key CPI data coming out on Jan 10th. All that matters to the market right now is inflation. The CPI data has a good chance of giving the market the information it needs to either make an explosive move higher or send it into another leg lower. From a technical point of view the levels remain the same this week. The NAS still has the red neutral box and the 200 sma above as resistance. Below the support comes in at the 14367 and the 13706 pivots. Above the red box I would be targeting ATHs again. Below the 13706 level I would be targeting a compound corrective move to the 13000 area.

At this point I do not have enough information to make a prediction either way although my bias will remain bearish until I see a price move back above the red neutral box. A bearish bias for me means that I treat every bullish bounce as a corrective move within a down trend. I am mostly a long side trader so any trades in the technology space will be focused on oversold reversals into resistance and earning momentum plays. Almost all my current trades are now intraday futures scalps or stocks in play. I am not swing trading right now due to the wild volatility. There is no edge in swing trading right now in my opinion.

Take note of the weekly events. Other that the very important CPI data on Thursday this week includes earnings from highly watched growth names such as TTD, BABA, ROKU, SHOP & PLTR. The earnings results plus CPI data have the potential to move the market a huge amount in either direction. I would expect option premium to be very high so be cautious with naked long CALLS & PUTS. Even if you get the direction right premium crush can kill your position. Much better odds selling premium in this environment IMO.

Please like my post if you find it helpful.

Weekly Events...


Monday... Earnings from... CAR, ANET

Tuesday... US International Trade.. Earnings from BABA, ABNB, DVN, RBLX, SEDG, UPST, VIAC, AKAM

Wednesday... Crude Inventories.. Earnings from CROX, SHOP, TTD, AMAT, CSCO, DASH, FSLY, NVDA, GBLE

Thursday... Jobless Claims, US CPI Earnings from BIDU, PLTR, WMT, YETI, RDFN, ROKU, SHAK, QDEL

Friday... Univ. Michigan Sentiment Earnings from DE


Bullish Notes...

Potential positive reaction to CPI data
Strong earnings results causes short covering
10 year yield drops back below 1.8%


Bearish Notes...

Price below 200 sma, 9/21 emas & below red neutral
Potential negative reaction to CPI data
Weak earnings from key growth stocks
10 year yield moves above 2%
Ukraine/Russian tension
Inflation worries
Market mentality flips from buy the dip to sell the rip

Komen:

Totally screwed up the earnings dates this week in the notes.
So not as heavy in the big growth names but still a few like NET & UPST
Here is the correct list.

Monday... HAS, TSN, AMGN
Tuesday.. HOG,PFE, CMG, DOCS, APPS, ENPH, LYFT, PTON,PAYC
Wednesday... CGC, CVS, DKNG, YUM, PEP, SONO, TWLO, UBER, DIS
Thurs... AZN, GOOS, TWTR, AFRM, NET, ILMN, UPWK, YELP, KO
Fri... CLF, UAA, IMGN

Komen:

Price has broken through the bottom of the neutral. Pushing back up towards the 200sma. Needs to break through the downward trend line first. Above the red box I get bullish again.

Komen:

Total rejection off the 200 sma so far after the CPI print. Now below the neutral again.