DFauvre

S&P Bear vs Bull Analysis

Singkat
SP:SPX   Indeks S&P 500
Based on a highly accurate proprietary system that predicts trend changes on the S&P, although the quarterly charts still shows a bullish pattern having closed above resistance to the upside, both the monthly and weekly charts show price closing below bullish support. This indicates the bullish rally is likely fading and over the next few months we will see a correction. Price action has been highly unusual, ignoring fundamentals, with price likely being artificially inflated by the banks. Historically speaking with the break of resistance on the quarterly candle last December, we should statistically have expected bearish trend reversal and a pull back to the downside. We got the pullback and then some signally a possible bullish reversal and break out to the upside. Fundamentals of a deteriorating economy do not justify current price levels. Price action has been highly unusual making it very difficult to predict trend direction. That said, I'm still bearish on the S&P long term. If price closes on a weekly or monthly candle above 3008 we are likely to see a continue artificially inflated bull rally. Between the Fed restarting QE and rate cuts where bad news is good news and the banks, prices action defies traditional metrics and analysis.
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