The S&P 500 could decline in the next days after the German DAX failed to hold its key 10000 point level (after the important German investor sentiment index ZEW fell sharply this week). And if US investors don't care about the chaos in Europe, there is still the possibility of increasing risk-off sentiment during the black-out period of buybacks during the current release of company earnings data.
Scenario A "fast brief dip":
Scenario B: "bearish deep decline"
Scenario A "fast brief dip":
- Short entry: 2170
- Short target:2125
Scenario B: "bearish deep decline"
- Short entry: 2159
- Short target:2087
It is truly stunning how strongly the S&P 500 has been stemming itself against the downtrend of the largest company stocks (by market cap) in the US (and the world). Using the new Tradingview screener function here is an overview when the largest company stocks peaked in July 2016, while the S&P 500 index kept on going sideways in July without a similar sized pullback:
Exxon (US), peaked July 15:
Berkshire (US), peaked July 19
Amazon (US), peaked July 12
Johnson & Johnson (US), peaked July 20
GE (US), peaked July 20
AT&T (US), peaked July 5
Wells Fargo (US), peaked July 14
JP Morgan (US), peaked July 14
Wall Mart (US), peaked July 11
Verizon (US), peaked July 5
Procter & Gamble (US), peaked July 14
Pfizer (US), peaked July 15
Shell (non-US), peaked July 14
Novartis (non-US), peaked July 22
Alibaba (non-US), peaked July 21
Budweiser (non-US), peaked July 1
Chevron (US), peaked July 14
Petro China (non-US), peaked July 14
Coca-Cola (US), peaked July 14
Visa (US), peaked July 25
Oracle (US), peaked July 15
Intel (US), peaked July 20
Merck (US), peaked July 13
Disney (US), peaked July 13
Cisco (US), peaked July 26
Taiwan Semiconductor (non-US), peaked July 27
Unilever (non-US), peaked July 1
UnitedHealth Group (US), peaked July 20
Altria (US), peaked July 05
Citigroup (US), peaked July 15
Brystal Meyers (US), peaked July 15
Schlumberger (US), peaked July 22
Gilead (US), peaked July 25
3M (US), peaked July 20
McDonalds (US), peaked July 22
Kraft Heinz (US), peaked July 8
CVS (US), peaked July 14