Markets closing down for 2019 right on time for the 3254 target, focus is now shifting towards event risk positioning into 2020 and participants seem happy to play the reflationary trades. This is an interesting swing to track with US election flows providing the ebb and flow.
The flows will now reflect in a lagged currency move with the Year-End repo funding. Smart money is on the back-foot since the crisis from September, the recent spike in DXY is coming from markets pricing another year end spike in funding tightness:
There is far better bang for your buck than buying US Equities at these levels, markets trading the final stages of an exuberance leg from the Phase 1 agreement and UK election tail risk and starting to run out of steam. This chart highlights only 4 times in the past 30 years has the US 2's vs 5's curve inverted whilst being in an upward moving yield environment, via Fed QT.
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversation in the comments with your views/charts.
The flows will now reflect in a lagged currency move with the Year-End repo funding. Smart money is on the back-foot since the crisis from September, the recent spike in DXY is coming from markets pricing another year end spike in funding tightness:
There is far better bang for your buck than buying US Equities at these levels, markets trading the final stages of an exuberance leg from the Phase 1 agreement and UK election tail risk and starting to run out of steam. This chart highlights only 4 times in the past 30 years has the US 2's vs 5's curve inverted whilst being in an upward moving yield environment, via Fed QT.
As usual thanks for keeping the support coming with likes, comments, questions and etc! Feel free to jump into the conversation in the comments with your views/charts.
