Coming Soon: Price Discovery

A gap down on Quad-Witch? The FED must be panicking. After hitting all-time high's yesterday (once again), SPY is seeing some heavy selling pressure here in the first 30 minutes of Quad-Witch, along with the rest of the US majors, which are down about .3%. The intraday bearish harmonic appears to have broken, and we're now back to a 369 handle, just north of the 50 period MA on the hourly. On the daily, our first major support is around 366, then the 21 day EMA at 364.93, and the recent low/bottom of the ascending channel from Nov 9-10th, around 362.

I'm expecting to see some fireworks today during power hour in particular, and potentially see the Vix break above 25 into the close. This could pave a short path to 32. I'll be watching the Put/Call ratio closely for signs of a breakout, and a clear shift in sentiment (back to reality). The megaphone is still in play on the monthly, and if an outside reversal candle does emerge by EOY, the bulls are in serious trouble.

I appreciate your time today guys. If you enjoyed the analysis, please hit the Like button and subscribe to our profile. The information and analysis shared in this post is not financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and research. Cheers, Michael.

Komen:

#Vix46:

Komen:

Put/Call looking like a Rattlesnake:

Komen:

In a rare twist, along with the US, both Asian, and European markets are notably in the red today. According to the financial media, "Stocks touch record high's before trading mixed, with stimulus talks in focus." So, in other words, Ga Ga, Goo Goo...

Komen:

Bears went for the 50 period MA on the hourly again (368.17), but met some buy the dippers around 368.44. Let's see if they make another attempt to break the 50 before lunch:

Komen:

I don't know about you guys, but everyday the world feels more and more like the Truman Show. I'm now seeing headlines that NYC office buildings are mostly empty. Mean while, all B&M retail is essentially extinct.

But, who needs an economy when you can print GDP all day? Zimbabwe certainly didn't. Or did they? Everyone's a Trillionaire. But, they're mostly living under the poverty line, and starving. Just devalue the USD already and get it over with. All this death by a thousand cuts bullsh*t is getting old. In my opinion they won't, and they aren't going to, because we know exactly what the result will be. Mass poverty.

Komen:

So the 50 period MA on the hourly was broken, and the bears are now seeing some buying pressure after briefly testing the 100 period MA (367.69), moments ago. We're now back above the 50:

Komen:

Let's see if the bears make another run for the 100, and then potentially the bottom of the channel/recent low at 362, if they're successful...

Komen:

If we see 366 tested before power hour, I'm not uncertain that we're going to 362...

Komen:

Bulls getting a nice relief rally here, and it looks like they might test the 21 period MA on the hourly, any minute (369.83):

Komen:

Based on some of the headlines I'm seeing, Stimulus talks don't appear to be going very well. Some GOP members want to ensure the "emergency" programs stay temporary, and want to limit (some of) the FED's ongoing assistance. Stocks are not happy on the news:

Komen:

View from the hourly as we approach the 50 period MA once again:

Komen:

T minus 2 hours until the end of the trading week. The Put/Call ratio is showing a heavy skew still (.528), but looks poised to breakout to .60 - .75, imminently. The implications of this move would be further downside for US markets, which would align perfectly with our interim SPY targets of 366, 362, and then the gap parade at 350 down to 323. Let's see what happens to price action when volume spikes into the close...

Komen:

Bears just recaptured the 50 period MA on the hourly, and are retesting the 100 period (367.86), as we speak:

Komen:

Lower Bollinger Band was just tested at 367.59...

Komen:

1m view as we persistently trend downward into power hour. The red line is the 50 period MA on the hourly at 368.14. Let's see if polarity principle holds up on the 1m:

Komen:

Buy programs picking up here in frequency as power hour looms:

Komen:

Solid rejection off 368. Bear remain in control:

Komen:

Another test of 368 and another rejection:

Komen:

Heikin Ashi on the Put/Call shows today's shift in sentiment more clearly than the hollow candles:

Komen:

Bulls losing the battle for 368 (for now):

Komen:

Keep an eye on volume during power hour. We're T minus 5 minutes away:

Komen:

Back to the LOD once again, let's shift back to the 15m, where you can see the bottom of the channel around 366 is in play:

Komen:

Really? All you can do is just laugh, folks:

Komen:

That's all she wrote, my friends. Blatant manipulation into the close, after a gap down on the open, and an entire day of relentless selling. Irrational exuberance showed up in the final minutes of trade to save the bulls from losing the 50 period MA on the hourly, but failed to recapture the 21 period EMA, after a heavy sell program in the final minute.

I'm mixing a drink as we speak, and will shake this week off like I do every other week. I hope you guys enjoyed the analysis, now go have a great weekend. Cheers! Michael.

Komen:

Public enemy #1, check out the money supply:

Komen:

This would explain all those November gap up's...