Spy

Right shoulder almost complete here .. we could break this support either today or Monday, but it's not much more room to Fawk around..

Exact opposite pattern playing out on VIX

Price could shop around in this area between 411 and 413 today but I think the drop starts early next week.

Stoploss at 415...
Price should not move above that area

Komen:

Es and NQ oversold on 1hour ..

We may or may not see 408 spy today
321 QQQ..

The low could be in for today but I'm telling you, may is just getting started

There is a risk of a gap up when futures are oversold buy I think what ever gap will be sold off .

Vix over 18 and things really start to drill..

So basically,
SPY Below 407.50 + Vix above 18.20 and we are on the next level down to 403..

Tech is finally down but those bank stocks look nasty, I don't think they're no where near done dumping


I'll post back EOD

Komen:

Could retest 200sma on 1hour at 410.80
This won't close above 412..


On the 1 hour you can see the inverse pattern playing out on the Vix compared to spy. Like I said, spy Below 409 =Vix over 18 and the next leg down

Daily candles are finishing up with a bearish engulfing pattern which means 90% chance of a red day monday..

Futures MFI still oversold so we could gap up Sunday night and I expect a fade to red in the regular session..

As far as swinging puts, I wouldn't swing any thing for the 15th, 16th, and 17th; give your self some time incase a fawkery gap..

Enjoy the weekend ✌

Komen:

Morning... ! Chopped up day, But the weakness is there!

.Best setup I see this morning at this time are IWM puts.
170p
175 stop loss
IWM is at the edge of a Descending triangle.

Komen:

Nq is really starting to roll over.. things should start to flush hard

Komen:

Nasty H&S building on AMD 2-4 hour chart

Komen:

Vix and Dxy cool off day.. another day of chop... great for positioning or scalping..



IWM and Banks outperformed but they needed this pop for what's about to come will affect that part of of the market the hardest ..

I know this chop is annoying for some of you. You have 3 options
1. Scalp for 10-30%
2. Buy more time and ATM strikes
3. Don't trade at all

Komen:

NVDA and META both propping market up today.. Games.. up today down tomorrow

Komen:

You see how tight the Bollingerband is on the 3 hour for the Spy chart. Whenever you see Bbands get tight it means a very big move is coming.. last time the Bbands was this tight was 4/23..
We went from 412 to 404.

This will be dejavu

Komen:

Spy daily chart..

Algo day, No volume across the board.
They pushed this right up to resistance again (Stop loss hunt)

Tomorrow if they gap it down , 409 is the target, 403 EOW

Komen:

Es price action since last monday... No more room To fawk around

Komen:

It's still early but

Msft
Googl
Amzn
Amd

All up over 1%


It will be hard for them to bring spy down unless cylicals, Financials and Energy crash.

Spy tested 21ema this morning at its lows and bounced ..

Closed out my IWM puts

Komen:

I'll be back on later..

Blood bath in Cylicals while QQQ is flat because 5 stocks are up .

I don't want to open any new positions just yet.

You don't want to see QQQ close above 327, if it sells from here we'll see a shooting star reversal.

Vix is showing a diamond bullish reversal but we need a breakout over 18

The 1hour money flow on ES, RTY, and YM are oversold..
2hour Money flow on NQ going over bought..

Means tomorrow expect weakness more in tech. Than cylicals

Komen:

NQ 1-2 hour overbought.. I'm expect a 1½-2% pullback on big tech by EOW.

Of course not all tech will participate in the sell off just like not all tech are participating in this rally so be selective in what you short.
..I'll post back last 20min

Komen:

Qqq 1hour chart...
The move , although fawkery, it's not breaking any trendlines . Just grinding up!

Komen:

Dow closed beneath 50sma and 200ema ✅

Spy closed beneath 21ema and 20sma ✅

IWM - Closed back beneath 21 ema ✅

Qqq - Shooting star daily Candle and NQ overbought ✅


Looks Bearish

Komen:

And this is why I always look at the money flow on the futures before I swing...

Resistance
Spy - 412.36
Es - 4144

No short on QQQ unless it breaks back below 326.90..

Watching tsla .. opening up Right below 21ema at 169.00

Komen:

Looks like another low volume grind today.. I'm sitting it out.. be back on later

Komen:

They'll grind this up into friday... Don't jump infront of the short..

Qqq wants 332
IWM 177
Spy - 417-418

Komen:

I want to see the Dow close its gap at 33,550

Qqq close gap at 332 then we'll see how things look..

Komen:

Although the spy closed its gap at
415.53

The SPX didn't at 4167..
Expect a power hour

Komen:

We should finish this leg up tomorrow...

Komen:

Qqq is about to complete the move up here at 332.30 gap close


Broke out of smaller wedge (Yellow) but this much larger wedge along with the Price action in the 330 area is a different ball game. We could push up to it tomorrow or pullback and finish the move Friday but 332.30 gap close is the target

Chip sector SMH daily Candle finished outside its bbands along with XLY..
Expecting
Nvda
Amd
Tsla
AMZN

To pullback

Komen:

Rally ends today.. it will bleed until wed

Komen:

Busy day for me today guys.. didn't get to trade much.. did a new spy post.. see you'll later