USD/CAD falls to two-month low

FX:USDCAD   Dolar U.S/Dolar Kanada
Downside risks started to prevail the market when USD/CAD hit the 55-hour SMA mid-Tuesday. As a result, the Greenback has since depreciated 93 pips against the Loonie and thus fallen below the previous two-month low of 1.2643.

As apparent on the chart, this price decline has remain within the prevailing channel down. In case the bearish sentiment continues to dominate, the US Dollar would breach its two-month range, thus pointing to further decline within the following trading sessions.

Conversely, the rate might still re-test the 55-hour SMA circa 1.2704, but this area is likely to hold, as it is also reinforced by the monthly S1 and the 38.20% Fibo.
Komen: Despite attempts to reverse near the weekly S2 at 1.2640 on Wednesday, outside pressures continued affect the US Dollar negatively. Thus, the pair had reached a support cluster formed by the monthly S2 and the weekly S3 by mid-today.

During this time, the pair has been trading in a steep descending channel. Even though the prevailing direction is still tended southwards, the Greenback is gradually approaching the upper boundary of this pattern.

This suggests that an upward breakout might occur next week. This assumption is likewise supported by weekly technical indicators.

In the meantime, the pair might still edge lower during the remaining week, setting the monthly S3 at 1.2493 as a possible target. It is unlikely that the pair falls below this level.

Komen: There is not much to mention in regards to the development on the USD/CAD currency pair’s charts. The pair continues to decline in the previously marked channel down pattern, as the US Dollar continues to lose strength.

The pair had slightly stopped at the few support levels near the 1.2580 mark, but they did not reverse the direction or hold out for long.

By the middle of Friday the pair was expected to reach the 1.25 mark. The reason for that was the fact that only below that mark the closest support levels are located.
Komen: Bearish pressures have dominated the pair since December 22. As a result, the rate had plunged to its ten-week low of 1.2516 by late Friday. The US Dollar subsequently entered a minor period of consolidation slightly below the 55-hour SMA.

This change in sentiment suggests that the Greenback might finally overcome its recent weakness and re-gain some of the lost positions. Given that the pair faces some significant resistance levels along the way, the US Dollar might fail to pick up speed right away.

In case bears manage to prevail during the following session and thus move the rate below the 1.25 mark, the weekly S1 at 1.2487 is likely to provide notable support.

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