After the previous impulse bearish
move downwards, price has been forming a corrective structure. The corrective structure has (1) completed the minimum 3 waves structure for a corrective move and (2) tested the blue rectangle resistance area
. Hence, we could expect another move down to the lower blue rectangle
2 possible scenarios:
1) Price breaks ascending trendline
2) Price re-tests blue rectangle resistance area
(5 waves structure) before heading down
If only either of the 2 above mentioned scenarios happened, I would be looking for a short trade. If not, this set-up would be invalid and the pair would be re-evaluated again.