Oil Continues to Slip Lower - Low 40's Coming?

Many times in the past, I’m asked how/where you begin counting Elliott Waves. There are 3 patterns I look for: 1) 5-3 combo, 2) Equal Wave Patterns, 3) Triangle patterns.

This morning, a triangle came to light that unlocked some wave relationships that are causing me to change my tune on Oil. (For those who attended the US Opening Bell webinar this morning, I was bullish Oil. In light of seeing this triangle below, I am changing my tune to bearish.)

When I changed the time frame of chart, the triangle in late April was exposed. When drawing the 2-4 trend channel based on blue ‘iv’ triangle in late April, it created an incredibly clean trend channel (red channel). These trend channels are useful for determining ending points for the fifth waves, in this case blue ‘v’.

This is important for a couple of reasons. First, notice how prices couldn’t penetrate the mid-line on May 6 (the dotted red line). This is quite bearish. The opposing end of the trend channel is the typical stopping point, yet in this case it couldn’t get half way there!

Secondly, this upward push could be the end of circle ‘iv’. Fourth waves typically retrace about 38% of its third wave. In this case, the 38% retracement level was at 63.50 and prices came very close to this level.

Therefore, with a very bearish ending wave to the upward push that exhausted near an important fib level, we elevate the bearish counts in the green notes. Both counts in the green box call for a move below 45.

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