BTC's inability to hold onto $50K support after rebounding as high as $51.6K earlier in the session has some market participants weary of a retrace back down to $45K/$40K in what could be a much more severe correction. However, before throwing in the towel and automatically assuming that the bears are set to remain in control in the days/weeks ahead, one ought to consider the BTC is trending in a manner akin to early Jan. Consider the following:
To stay up-to-date with the latest market developments, be sure to subscribe to Kraken Intelligence at https://kraken.com/subscribe/intelligence
- Over the past several days, we've seen BTC correct back down to its 21-day moving average before bouncing higher. This bounce coincides with a rejection from the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (~$51,500) and marks what was a -22% correction.
- After hitting an all-time high of $42K on Jan. 8, 2021, BTC retraced -28% down to the 21-day moving average before bouncing higher and climbing up to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level ($36.2K).
- In both instances, after BTC was rejected from the 50% Fib, a backtest of the 23.6% Fib followed - which currently resides around $48K.
Given that BTC is trending in an eerily similar manner to that of Jan. 2021, one could expect BTC to climb up to the 78.6% Fib ($55.4K) should BTC be in the midst of forming a fractal pattern.
- A climb up to the 78.6% Fib would equate to an incremental +10% gain from current price.
- In the event we see BTC slip back below the 23.6% Fib and the 21-day moving average ($47,500), what appears to be a fractal pattern would certainly be invalidated. In which case the probability of BTC backtesting $42K support would grow considerably.
To stay up-to-date with the latest market developments, be sure to subscribe to Kraken Intelligence at https://kraken.com/subscribe/intelligence