Quarterly Theory ICT 04 [TradingFinder] SSMT 4Quarter Divergence🔵 Introduction
Sequential SMT Divergence is an advanced price-action-based analytical technique rooted in the ICT (Inner Circle Trader) methodology. Its primary objective is to identify early-stage divergences between correlated assets within precise time structures. This tool not only breaks down market structure but also enables traders to detect engineered liquidity traps before the market reacts.
In simple terms, SMT (Smart Money Technique) occurs when two correlated assets—such as indices (ES and NQ), currency pairs (EURUSD and GBPUSD), or commodities (Gold and Silver)—exhibit different reactions at key price levels (swing highs or lows). This lack of alignment is often a sign of smart money manipulation and signals a lack of confirmation in the ongoing trend—hinting at an imminent reversal or at least a pause in momentum.
In its Sequential form, SMT divergences are examined through a more granular temporal lens—between intraday quarters (Q1 through Q4). When SMT appears at the transition from one quarter to another (e.g., Q1 to Q2 or Q3 to Q4), the signal becomes significantly more powerful, often aligning with a critical phase in the Quarterly Theory—a framework that segments market behavior into four distinct phases: Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, and Reversal/Continuation.
For instance, a Bullish SMT forms when one asset prints a new low while its correlated counterpart fails to break the corresponding low from the previous quarter. This usually indicates absorption of selling pressure and the beginning of accumulation by smart money. Conversely, a Bearish SMT arises when one asset makes a higher high, but the second asset fails to confirm, signaling distribution or a fake-out before a decline.
However, SMT alone is not enough. To confirm a true Market Structure Break (MSB), the appearance of a Precision Swing Point (PSP) is essential—a specific candlestick formation on a lower timeframe (typically 5 to 15 minutes) that reveals the entry of institutional participants. The combination of SMT and PSP provides a more accurate entry point and better understanding of premium and discount zones.
The Sequential SMT Indicator, introduced in this article, dynamically scans charts for such divergence patterns across multiple sessions. It is applicable to various markets including Forex, crypto, commodities, and indices, and shows particularly strong performance during mid-week sessions (Wednesdays and Thursdays)—when most weekly highs and lows tend to form.
Bullish Sequential SMT :
Bearish Sequential SMT :
🔵 How to Use
The Sequential SMT (SSMT) indicator is designed to detect time and structure-based divergences between two correlated assets. This divergence occurs when both assets print a similar swing (high or low) in the previous quarter (e.g., Q3), but in the current quarter (e.g., Q4), only one asset manages to break that swing level—while the other fails to reach it.
This temporal mismatch is precisely identified by the SSMT indicator and often signals smart money activity, a market phase transition, or even the presence of an engineered liquidity trap. The signal becomes especially powerful when paired with a Precision Swing Point (PSP)—a confirming candle on lower timeframes (5m–15m) that typically indicates a market structure break (MSB) and the entry of smart liquidity.
🟣 Bullish Sequential SMT
In the previous quarter, both assets form a similar swing low.
In the current quarter, one asset (e.g., EURUSD) breaks that low and trades below it.
The other asset (e.g., GBPUSD) fails to reach the same low, preserving the structure.
This time-based divergence reflects declining selling pressure, potential absorption, and often marks the end of a manipulation phase and the start of accumulation. If confirmed by a bullish PSP candle, it offers a strong long opportunity, with stop-losses defined just below the swing low.
🟣 Bearish Sequential SMT
In the previous quarter, both assets form a similar swing high.
In the current quarter, one asset (e.g., NQ) breaks above that high.
The other asset (e.g., ES) fails to reach that high, remaining below it.
This type of divergence signals weakening bullish momentum and the likelihood of distribution or a fake-out before a price drop. When followed by a bearish PSP candle, it sets up a strong shorting opportunity with targets in the discount zone and protective stops placed above the swing high.
🔵 Settings
⚙️ Logical Settings
Quarterly Cycles Type : Select the time segmentation method for SMT analysis.
Available modes include: Yearly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 90 Minute, and Micro.
These define how the indicator divides market time into Q1–Q4 cycles.
Symbol : Choose the secondary asset to compare with the main chart asset (e.g., XAUUSD, US100, GBPUSD).
Pivot Period : Sets the sensitivity of the pivot detection algorithm. A smaller value increases responsiveness to price swings.
Activate Max Pivot Back : When enabled, limits the maximum number of past pivots to be considered for divergence detection.
Max Pivot Back Length : Defines how many past pivots can be used (if the above toggle is active).
Pivot Sync Threshold : The maximum allowed difference (in bars) between pivots of the two assets for them to be compared.
Validity Pivot Length : Defines the time window (in bars) during which a divergence remains valid before it's considered outdated.
🎨 Display Settings
Show Cycle :Toggles the visual display of the current Quarter (Q1 to Q4) based on the selected time segmentation
Show Cycle Label : Shows the name (e.g., "Q2") of each detected Quarter on the chart.
Show Bullish SMT Line : Draws a line connecting the bullish divergence points.
Show Bullish SMT Label : Displays a label on the chart when a bullish divergence is detected.
Bullish Color : Sets the color for bullish SMT markers (label, shape, and line).
Show Bearish SMT Line : Draws a line for bearish divergence.
Show Bearish SMT Label : Displays a label when a bearish SMT divergence is found.
Bearish Color : Sets the color for bearish SMT visual elements.
🔔 Alert Settings
Alert Name : Custom name for the alert messages (used in TradingView’s alert system).
Message Frequency :
All: Every signal triggers an alert.
Once Per Bar: Alerts once per bar regardless of how many signals occur.
Per Bar Close: Only triggers when the bar closes and the signal still exists.
Time Zone Display : Choose the time zone in which alert timestamps are displayed (e.g., UTC).
Bullish SMT Divergence Alert : Enable/disable alerts specifically for bullish signals.
Bearish SMT Divergence Alert : Enable/disable alerts specifically for bearish signals
🔵 Conclusion
The Sequential SMT (SSMT) indicator is a powerful and precise tool for identifying structural divergences between correlated assets within a time-based framework. Unlike traditional divergence models that rely solely on sequential pivot comparisons, SSMT leverages Quarterly Theory, in combination with concepts like liquidity sweeps, market structure breaks (MSB) and precision swing points (PSP), to provide a deeper and more actionable view of market dynamics.
By using SSMT, traders gain not only the ability to identify where divergence occurs, but also when it matters most within the market cycle. This empowers them to anticipate major moves or traps before they fully materialize, and position themselves accordingly in high-probability trade zones.
Whether you're trading Forex, crypto, indices, or commodities, the true strength of this indicator is revealed when used in sync with the Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution, and Reversal phases of the market. Integrated with other confluence tools and market models, SSMT can serve as a core component in a professional, rule-based, and highly personalized trading strategy.
Cari dalam skrip untuk "Cycle"
Jinny Gann ArJinny Gann AR is a comprehensive technical analysis indicator designed to empower traders with the tools to analyze market movements using Gann square of 9 theory. Developed by Magic_xD, this indicator integrates various features inspired by the legendary trader W.D. Gann's methods.
The trading techniques by WD Gann are widely seen as innovative and are still studied and used by traders today. He used angles and various geometric constructions. Gann angles divide time and price into proportionate parts and are often used to predict areas of support and resistance, key tops and bottoms and future price moves. The method is based on the notion that markets rotate from angle to angle and when an angle is broken, price moves towards the next one. Several angles together make up a Gann Fan.
- Jinny Gann AR Might accurately Shows you when and what price might be the end of the Cycle,
-Gives The important pivot points
- This Allows you to Detect Next Level of Resistance/Support And when a Possible Reversal might occur ahead so you can Catch a reversal in time.
- Its Multi Language User interface English - Arabic.
Ability to customize Every thing visually.
Some Features Explained on USOIL Chart :
Gann Square of 9 Levels for USOIL:
Charts Shows and Up Cycle Started 4 May 2023 From bottom of 63.61
Indicating Important Levels and Expected End of 1 Cycle at 99.5 on 25 Sep 2024
Gann Star With Levels And Time Lines :
Vertical Dashed Lines are The time lines
Jinny Gann Grid Based on Shape Type not Static 45 Angle:
Jinny Gann Grid + Levels :
Jinny Gann Fan For Up Cycle:
Jinny Gann Fan Reverse Same Cycle:
Ability To Show Both Up/Reversal Fans on The chart:
The Number of Fann Levels you need on the chart can be customized by changing Shape Type... But Price Will Respect it Pretty Well.
Key Features:
Direction Selection: Choose between "Up" or "Down" to specify the market direction you want to analyze.
Automatic Settings Adjustment: Enable this option to allow the indicator to automatically adjust settings for optimal analysis.
Original Gann Levels: Display original Gann theory levels Based on Gann Square of 9 Equations.
Auto Detect Tops/Bottoms: Determine the number of previous candles used to automatically detect Top or Bottom in the market.
Spacing Configuration: Adjust the spacing or offset between Gann levels to fine-tune your analysis.
Manual Starting Point: Manually set the starting point for your analysis.
Geometric Shape Selection: Choose from various geometric shapes including straight lines, triangles, quadrilaterals, and more...
Custom Angle Selection: Define custom angles for geometric shapes .
Time Interval Selection: Select time intervals such as 360 or 720 Etc...
Cycle Analysis: Determine the number of cycles to analyze market movements effectively.
Decimal Precision: Customize the number of decimal places displayed for accurate analysis.
Automatic Spacing (Under Development): Future feature to automatically select spacing for enhanced user experience.
Time Levels Display: Visualize time levels to gain insights into market timing.
Gann Star Display: Show Gann stars to identify critical market points.
Star Modification: Modify the appearance of Gann stars for better visualization.
Gann Grid Display: Display Gann grids to identify key support and resistance levels.
Grid Extension: Extend Gann grid lines for extended analysis.
Gann Fan Display: Show Gann fans to analyze trend lines and potential reversals.
Reverse Fan Display: Visualize Gann fans in reverse to explore alternative analysis perspectives.
Additional Fan Options: Explore more options for Gann fan analysis.
Time Line Adjustment: Move time lines to the right or left for flexible analysis.
Star Line Extension: Extend Gann star lines for deeper insights.
Fan Line Extension: Extend Gann fan lines for comprehensive trend analysis.
Customizable Colors: Customize colors for various indicators to suit your preference.
Width Adjustment: Adjust the width of trend lines for better visualization.
Label Customization: Customize colors and positions of level and price labels for clarity.
Hurst Future Lines of Demarcation StrategyJ. M. Hurst introduced a concept in technical analysis known as the Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), which serves as a forward-looking tool by incorporating a simple yet profound line into future projections on a financial chart. Specifically, the FLD is constructed by offsetting the price half a cycle ahead into the future on the time axis, relative to the Hurst Cycle of interest. For instance, in the context of a 40 Day Cycle, the FLD would be represented by shifting the current price data 20 days forward on the chart, offering an idea of future price movement anticipations.
The utility of FLDs extends into three critical areas of insight, which form the backbone of the FLD Trading Strategy:
A price crossing the FLD signifies the confirmation of either a peak or trough formation, indicating pivotal moments in price action.
Such crossings also help determine precise price targets for the upcoming peak or trough, aligned with the cycle of examination.
Additionally, the occurrence of a peak in the FLD itself signals a probable zone where the price might experience a trough, helping to anticipate of future price movements.
These insights by Hurst in his "Cycles Trading Course" during the 1970s, are instrumental for traders aiming to determine entry and exit points, and to forecast potential price movements within the market.
To use the FLD Trading Strategy, for example when focusing on the 40 Day Cycle, a trader should primarily concentrate on the interplay between three Hurst Cycles:
The 20 Day FLD (Signal) - Half the length of the Trade Cycle
The 40 Day FLD (Trade) - The Cycle you want to trade
The 80 Day FLD (Trend) - Twice the length of the Trade Cycle
Traders can gauge trend or consolidation by watching for two critical patterns:
Cascading patterns, characterized by several FLDs running parallel with a consistent separation, typically emerge during pronounced market trends, indicating strong directional momentum.
Consolidation patterns, on the other hand, occur when multiple FLDs intersect and navigate within the same price bandwidth, often reversing direction to traverse this range multiple times. This tangled scenario results in the formation of Pause Zones, areas where price momentum is likely to temporarily stall or where the emergence of a significant trend might be delayed.
This simple FLD indicator provides 3 FLDs with optional source input and smoothing, A-through-H FLD interaction background, adjustable “Close the Trade” triggers, and a simple strategy for backtesting it all.
The A-through-H FLD interactions are a framework designed to classify the different types of price movements as they intersect with or diverge from the Future Line of Demarcation (FLD). Each interaction (designated A through H by color) represents a specific phase or characteristic within the cycle, and understanding these can help traders anticipate future price movements and make informed decisions.
The adjustable “Close the Trade” triggers are for setting the crossover/under that determines the trade exits. The options include: Price, Signal FLD, Trade FLD, or Trend FLD. For example, a trader may want to exit trades only when price finally crosses the Trade FLD line.
Shoutouts & Credits for all the raw code, helpful information, ideas & collaboration, conversations together, introductions, indicator feedback, and genuine/selfless help:
🏆 @TerryPascoe
🏅 @Hpotter
👏 @parisboy
PA-Adaptive Hull Parabolic [Loxx]The PA-Adaptive Hull Parabolic is not your typical trading indicator. It synthesizes the computational brilliance of two famed technicians: John Ehlers and John Hull. Let's demystify its sophistication.
█ Ehlers' Phase Accumulation
John Ehlers is well-known in the trading community for his digital signal processing approach to market data. One of his standout techniques is phase accumulation. This method identifies the dominant cycle in the market by accumulating the phases of individual cycles. By doing so, it "adapts" to real-time market conditions.
Here's the brilliance of phase accumulation in this code
The indicator doesn't merely use a static look-back period. Instead, it dynamically determines the dominant market cycle through phase accumulation.
The calcComp function, rooted in Ehlers' methodology, provides a complex computation using a digital signal processing approach to filter out market noise and pinpoint the current cycle's frequency.
By measuring and adapting to the instantaneous period of the market, it ensures that the indicator remains relevant, especially in non-stationary market conditions.
Hull's Moving Average
John Hull introduced the Hull Moving Average (HMA) aiming to reduce lag and improve smoothing. The HMA's essence lies in its weighted average computation, prioritizing more recent prices.
This code takes an adaptive twist on the HMA
Instead of a fixed period, the HMA uses the dominant cycle length derived from Ehlers' phase accumulation. This makes the HMA not just fast and smooth, but also adaptive to the dominant market rhythm.
The intricate iLwmp function in the script provides this adaptive HMA computation. It's a weighted moving average, but its length isn't static; it's based on the previously determined dominant market cycle.
█ Trading Insights
The indicator paints the bars to represent the immediate trend: green for bullish and red for bearish.
Entry points, both long ("L") and short ("S"), are presented visually. These are derived from crossovers of the adaptive HMA, a clear indication of a potential shift in the trend.
Additionally, alert conditions are set, ready to notify a trader when these crossovers occur, ensuring real-time actionable insights.
█ Conclusion
The PA-Adaptive Hull Parabolic is a masterclass in advanced technical indicator design. By marrying John Ehlers' adaptive phase accumulation with John Hull's HMA, it creates a dynamic, responsive, and precise tool for traders. It's not just about capturing the trend; it's about understanding the very rhythm of the market.
Leonid's Bitcoin Macro & Liquidity Regime Tracker🧠 Macro Overlay Score (Bitcoin Liquidity Regime Tracker)
This indicator combines the most important macroeconomic and on-chain inputs into a single unified score to help investors identify Bitcoin’s long-term cycle phases. Each input is normalized into a 0–100 score and blended using configurable weights to generate a dynamic, forward-looking macro regime tracker.
✅ Best used on the **Bitcoin All Time History Index with Weekly resolution** (`INDEX:BTCUSD`) for maximum historical context and signal clarity.
---
📈 Why Macro?
Macro liquidity conditions — interest rates, monetary expansion, dollar strength, credit risk — drive Bitcoin cycles . Risk assets like BTC thrive during periods of:
Monetary easing
Liquidity injections
Expansionary central bank policy
This overlay surfaces those periods *before* price follows. It captures cycle shifts in the business cycle, monetary policy, and investor sentiment — making it ideal for long-term allocators, macro-aligned investors, and cycle-focused BTC holders.
🔔 This is **not** designed for short-term or swing trading. It is optimized for **macro trend confirmation and regime awareness** — not fast entry/exit signals.
---
🔍 What It Tracks
Macro Inputs:
- 🏭 ISM 3M Trend (Business Cycle)
- 💹 CPI YoY (Inverted Inflation)
- 💵 M2 YoY + M2 Acceleration
- 🇨🇳 China M2 (Global Liquidity)
- 💱 DXY 3M Trend (USD Strength)
- 🏦 TGA & RRP YoY (Treasury / MMF Flows)
- 🏛 Fed Balance Sheet (WALCL)
- 💳 High Yield Spread (Credit Conditions)
- 💧 Net Liquidity Composite = WALCL – TGA – RRP
On-Chain Inputs:
- ⚠️ MVRV Ratio (Valuation Cycles)
- 🚀 Mayer Multiple Acceleration (200DMA Momentum)
---
🧩 How It Works
Each input is:
Normalized to a 0–100 score
Weighted by importance (fully configurable)
Combined into a **composite Macro Score**, then normalized across history
The chart will display:
🔷 A 0–100 **Macro Score Line**
🧭 **Cycle Phase classification**: Accumulation, Expansion, Distribution, Capitulation
📊 Optional **debug table** with all sub-scores
---
🧠 Interpreting the Signal
| Signal Type | Meaning |
|-------------------|---------------------------------------------|
| Macro Score ↑ | Liquidity improving → Bullish regime forming |
| Macro Score ↓ | Liquidity deteriorating → Caution warranted |
| Score < 40 & Rising | 🔵 Accumulation cycle likely beginning |
| Score > 70 & Falling | 🟡 Distribution / Macro exhaustion |
| Net Liquidity ↑ | Strong driver of BTC upside historically |
---
❓ FAQ
Q: Why did the Macro Score peak in March 2021, but Bitcoin topped in November?
> The indicator reflects **macro liquidity**, not price momentum. M2 growth slowed, DXY bottomed, and the Fed stopped expanding WALCL by Q1 2021 — all signs of macro exhaustion. BTC continued on **residual momentum**, but the smart money began exiting months earlier.
Q: What does the score range mean?
- 0–25 : Tight liquidity, unfavorable conditions
- 50 : Neutral environment
- 75–100 : Strong easing, liquidity surge
Q: Is this good for short-term signals?
> No. This is a **macro-level overlay**, best used for 3–12 month context shifts, not day trades.
Q: Can I adjust the weights?
> Yes. You can tune the influence of each input to match your thesis (e.g., overweight on-chain, or global liquidity).
Q: Do I need special data access?
> No. All symbols are public TradingView datasets (FRED, CryptoCap, etc.). Just use this on a BTC chart like `BTCUSD`.
---
✅ How to Use
- Load on **`INDEX:BTCUSD`**, set to **Weekly timeframe**
- Confirm long-term bottoms when score is low and rising (Accumulation → Expansion)
- Watch for tops when score is high and falling (Distribution → Capitulation)
- Combine with price structure, realized profit/loss, and market sentiment
---
🚀 If you're serious about understanding Bitcoin's macro regime, this is your alpha map. Share it, clone it, and build on it.
[GYTS-CE] Market Regime Detector🧊 Market Regime Detector (Community Edition)
🌸 Part of GoemonYae Trading System (GYTS) 🌸
🌸 --------- INTRODUCTION --------- 🌸
💮 What is the Market Regime Detector?
The Market Regime Detector is an advanced, consensus-based indicator that identifies the current market state to increase the probability of profitable trades. By distinguishing between trending (bullish or bearish) and cyclic (range-bound) market conditions, this detector helps you select appropriate tactics for different environments. Instead of forcing a single strategy across all market conditions, our detector allows you to adapt your approach based on real-time market behaviour.
💮 The Importance of Market Regimes
Markets constantly shift between different behavioural states or "regimes":
• Bullish trending markets - characterised by sustained upward price movement
• Bearish trending markets - characterised by sustained downward price movement
• Cyclic markets - characterised by range-bound, oscillating behaviour
Each regime requires fundamentally different trading approaches. Trend-following strategies excel in trending markets but fail in cyclic ones, while mean-reversion strategies shine in cyclic markets but underperform in trending conditions. Detecting these regimes is essential for successful trading, which is why we've developed the Market Regime Detector to accurately identify market states using complementary detection methods.
🌸 --------- KEY FEATURES --------- 🌸
💮 Consensus-Based Detection
Rather than relying on a single method, our detector employs two complementary detection methodologies that analyse different aspects of market behaviour:
• Dominant Cycle Average (DCA) - analyzes price movement relative to its lookback period, a proxy for the dominant cycle
• Volatility Channel - examines price behaviour within adaptive volatility bands
These diverse perspectives are synthesised into a robust consensus that minimises false signals while maintaining responsiveness to genuine regime changes.
💮 Dominant Cycle Framework
The Market Regime Detector uses the concept of dominant cycles to establish a reference framework. You can input the dominant cycle period that best represents the natural rhythm of your market, providing a stable foundation for regime detection across different timeframes.
💮 Intuitive Parameter System
We've distilled complex technical parameters into intuitive controls that traders can easily understand:
• Adaptability - how quickly the detector responds to changing market conditions
• Sensitivity - how readily the detector identifies transitions between regimes
• Consensus requirement - how much agreement is needed among detection methods
This approach makes the detector accessible to traders of all experience levels while preserving the power of the underlying algorithms.
💮 Visual Market Feedback
The detector provides clear visual feedback about the current market regime through:
• Colour-coded chart backgrounds (purple shades for bullish, pink for bearish, yellow for cyclic)
• Colour-coded price bars
• Strength indicators showing the degree of consensus
• Customizable colour schemes to match your preferences or trading system
💮 Integration in the GYTS suite
The Market Regime Detector is compatible with the GYTS Suite , i.e. it passes the regime into the 🎼 Order Orchestrator where you can set how to trade the trending and cyclic regime.
🌸 --------- CONFIGURATION SETTINGS --------- 🌸
💮 Adaptability
Controls how quickly the Market Regime detector adapts to changing market conditions. You can see it as a low-frequency, long-term change parameter:
Very Low: Very slow adaptation, most stable but may miss regime changes
Low: Slower adaptation, more stability but less responsiveness
Normal: Balanced between stability and responsiveness
High: Faster adaptation, more responsive but less stable
Very High: Very fast adaptation, highly responsive but may generate false signals
This setting affects lookback periods and filter parameters across all detection methods.
💮 Sensitivity
Controls how sensitive the detector is to market regime transitions. This acts as a high-frequency, short-term change parameter:
Very Low: Requires substantial evidence to identify a regime change
Low: Less sensitive, reduces false signals but may miss some transitions
Normal: Balanced sensitivity suitable for most markets
High: More sensitive, detects subtle regime changes but may have more noise
Very High: Very sensitive, detects minor fluctuations but may produce frequent changes
This setting affects thresholds for regime detection across all methods.
💮 Dominant Cycle Period
This parameter allows you to specify the market's natural rhythm in bars. This represents a complete market cycle (up and down movement). Finding the right value for your specific market and timeframe might require some experimentation, but it's a crucial parameter that helps the detector accurately identify regime changes. Most of the times the cycle is between 20 and 40 bars.
💮 Consensus Mode
Determines how the signals from both detection methods are combined to produce the final market regime:
• Any Method (OR) : Signals bullish/bearish if either method detects that regime. If methods conflict (one bullish, one bearish), the stronger signal wins. More sensitive, catches more regime changes but may produce more false signals.
• All Methods (AND) : Signals only when both methods agree on the regime. More conservative, reduces false signals but might miss some legitimate regime changes.
• Weighted Decision : Balances both methods with equal weighting. Provides a middle ground between sensitivity and stability.
Each mode also calculates a continuous regime strength value that's used for colour intensity in the 'unconstrained' display mode.
💮 Display Mode
Choose how to display the market regime colours:
• Unconstrained regime: Shows the regime strength as a continuous gradient. This provides more nuanced visualisation where the intensity of the colour indicates the strength of the trend.
• Consensus only: Shows only the final consensus regime with fixed colours based on the detected regime type.
The background and bar colours will change to indicate the current market regime:
• Purple shades: Bullish trending market (darker purple indicates stronger bullish trend)
• Pink shades: Bearish trending market (darker pink indicates stronger bearish trend)
• Yellow: Cyclic (range-bound) market
💮 Custom Colour Options
The Market Regime Detector allows you to customize the colour scheme to match your personal preferences or to coordinate with other indicators:
• Use custom colours: Toggle to enable your own colour choices instead of the default scheme
• Transparency: Adjust the transparency level of all regime colours
• Bullish colours: Define custom colours for strong, medium, weak, and very weak bullish trends
• Bearish colours: Define custom colours for strong, medium, weak, and very weak bearish trends
• Cyclic colour: Define a custom colour for cyclic (range-bound) market conditions
🌸 --------- DETECTION METHODS --------- 🌸
💮 Dominant Cycle Average (DCA)
The Dominant Cycle Average method forms a key part of our detection system:
1. Theoretical Foundation :
The DCA method builds on cycle analysis and the observation that in trending markets, price consistently remains on one side of a moving average calculated using the dominant cycle period. In contrast, during cyclic markets, price oscillates around this average.
2. Calculation Process :
• We calculate a Simple Moving Average (SMA) using the specified lookback period - a proxy for the dominant cycle period
• We then analyse the proportion of time that price spends above or below this SMA over a lookback window. The theory is that the price should cross the SMA each half cycle, assuming that the dominant cycle period is correct and price follows a sinusoid.
• This lookback window is adaptive, scaling with the dominant cycle period (controlled by the Adaptability setting)
• The different values are standardised and normalised to possess more resolving power and to be more robust to noise.
3. Regime Classification :
• When the normalised proportion exceeds a positive threshold (determined by Sensitivity setting), the market is classified as bullish trending
• When it falls below a negative threshold, the market is classified as bearish trending
• When the proportion remains between these thresholds, the market is classified as cyclic
💮 Volatility Channel
The Volatility Channel method complements the DCA method by focusing on price movement relative to adaptive volatility bands:
1. Theoretical Foundation :
This method is based on the observation that trending markets tend to sustain movement outside of normal volatility ranges, while cyclic markets tend to remain contained within these ranges. By creating adaptive bands that adjust to current market volatility, we can detect when price behaviour indicates a trending or cyclic regime.
2. Calculation Process :
• We first calculate a smooth base channel center using a low pass filter, creating a noise-reduced centreline for price
• True Range (TR) is used to measure market volatility, which is then smoothed and scaled by the deviation factor (controlled by Sensitivity)
• Upper and lower bands are created by adding and subtracting this scaled volatility from the centreline
• Price is smoothed using an adaptive A2RMA filter, which has a very flat and stable behaviour, to reduce noise while preserving trend characteristics
• The position of this smoothed price relative to the bands is continuously monitored
3. Regime Classification :
• When smoothed price moves above the upper band, the market is classified as bullish trending
• When smoothed price moves below the lower band, the market is classified as bearish trending
• When price remains between the bands, the market is classified as cyclic
• The magnitude of price's excursion beyond the bands is used to determine trend strength
4. Adaptive Behaviour :
• The smoothing periods and deviation calculations automatically adjust based on the Adaptability setting
• The measured volatility is calculated over a period proportional to the dominant cycle, ensuring the detector works across different timeframes
• Both the center line and the bands adapt dynamically to changing market conditions, making the detector responsive yet stable
This method provides a unique perspective that complements the DCA approach, with the consensus mechanism synthesising insights from both methods.
🌸 --------- USAGE GUIDE --------- 🌸
💮 Starting with Default Settings
The default settings (Normal for Adaptability and Sensitivity, Weighted Decision for Consensus Mode) provide a balanced starting point suitable for most markets and timeframes. Begin by observing how these settings identify regimes in your preferred instruments.
💮 Finding the Optimal Dominant Cycle
The dominant cycle period is a critical parameter. Here are some approaches to finding an appropriate value:
• Start with typical values, usually something around 25 works well
• Visually identify the average distance between significant peaks and troughs
• Experiment with different values and observe which provides the most stable regime identification
• Consider using cycle-finding indicators to help identify the natural rhythm of your market
💮 Adjusting Parameters
• If you notice too many regime changes → Decrease Sensitivity or increase Consensus requirement
• If regime changes seem delayed → Increase Adaptability
• If a trending regime is not detected, the market is automatically assigned to be in a cyclic state
• If you want to see more nuanced regime transitions → Try the "unconstrained" display mode (note that this will not affect the output to other indicators)
💮 Trading Applications
Regime-Specific Strategies:
• Bullish Trending Regime - Use trend-following strategies, trail stops wider, focus on breakouts, consider holding positions longer, and emphasize buying dips
• Bearish Trending Regime - Consider shorts, tighter stops, focus on breakdown points, sell rallies, implement downside protection, and reduce position sizes
• Cyclic Regime - Apply mean-reversion strategies, trade range boundaries, apply oscillators, target definable support/resistance levels, and use profit-taking at extremes
Strategy Switching:
Create a set of rules for each market regime and switch between them based on the detector's signal. This approach can significantly improve performance compared to applying a single strategy across all market conditions.
GYTS Suite Integration:
• In the GYTS 🎼 Order Orchestrator, select the '🔗 STREAM-int 🧊 Market Regime' as the market regime source
• Note that the consensus output (i.e. not the "unconstrained" display) will be used in this stream
• Create different strategies for trending (bullish/bearish) and cyclic regimes. The GYTS 🎼 Order Orchestrator is specifically made for this.
• The output stream is actually very simple, and can possibly be used in indicators and strategies as well. It outputs 1 for bullish, -1 for bearish and 0 for cyclic regime.
🌸 --------- FINAL NOTES --------- 🌸
💮 Development Philosophy
The Market Regime Detector has been developed with several key principles in mind:
1. Robustness - The detection methods have been rigorously tested across diverse markets and timeframes to ensure reliable performance.
2. Adaptability - The detector automatically adjusts to changing market conditions, requiring minimal manual intervention.
3. Complementarity - Each detection method provides a unique perspective, with the collective consensus being more reliable than any individual method.
4. Intuitiveness - Complex technical parameters have been abstracted into easily understood controls.
💮 Ongoing Refinement
The Market Regime Detector is under continuous development. We regularly:
• Fine-tune parameters based on expanded market data
• Research and integrate new detection methodologies
• Optimise computational efficiency for real-time analysis
Your feedback and suggestions are very important in this ongoing refinement process!
Adaptive Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) [Loxx]Adaptive QQE is a fixed and cycle adaptive version of the popular Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) used by forex traders. This indicator includes varoius types of RSI caculations and adaptive cycle measurements to find tune your signal.
Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE):
The Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) indicator works like a smoother version of the popular Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator. QQE expands on RSI by adding two volatility based trailing stop lines. These trailing stop lines are composed of a fast and a slow moving Average True Range (ATR).
There are many indicators for many purposes. Some of them are complex and some are comparatively easy to handle. The QQE indicator is a really useful analytical tool and one of the most accurate indicators. It offers numerous strategies for using the buy and sell signals. Essentially, it can help detect trend reversal and enter the trade at the most optimal positions.
Wilders' RSI:
The Relative Strength Index ( RSI ) is a well versed momentum based oscillator which is used to measure the speed (velocity) as well as the change (magnitude) of directional price movements. Essentially RSI , when graphed, provides a visual mean to monitor both the current, as well as historical, strength and weakness of a particular market. The strength or weakness is based on closing prices over the duration of a specified trading period creating a reliable metric of price and momentum changes. Given the popularity of cash settled instruments (stock indexes) and leveraged financial products (the entire field of derivatives); RSI has proven to be a viable indicator of price movements.
RSX RSI:
RSI is a very popular technical indicator, because it takes into consideration market speed, direction and trend uniformity. However, the its widely criticized drawback is its noisy (jittery) appearance. The Jurk RSX retains all the useful features of RSI , but with one important exception: the noise is gone with no added lag.
Rapid RSI:
Rapid RSI Indicator, from Ian Copsey's article in the October 2006 issue of Stocks & Commodities magazine.
RapidRSI resembles Wilder's RSI , but uses a SMA instead of a WilderMA for internal smoothing of price change accumulators.
VHF Adaptive Cycle:
Vertical Horizontal Filter (VHF) was created by Adam White to identify trending and ranging markets. VHF measures the level of trend activity, similar to ADX DI. Vertical Horizontal Filter does not, itself, generate trading signals, but determines whether signals are taken from trend or momentum indicators. Using this trend information, one is then able to derive an average cycle length.
Band-pass Adaptive Cycle:
Even the most casual chart reader will be able to spot times when the market is cycling and other times when longer-term trends are in play. Cycling markets are ideal for swing trading however attempting to “trade the swing” in a trending market can be a recipe for disaster. Similarly, applying trend trading techniques during a cycling market can equally wreak havoc in your account. Cycle or trend modes can readily be identified in hindsight. But it would be useful to have an objective scientific approach to guide you as to the current market mode.
There are a number of tools already available to differentiate between cycle and trend modes. For example, measuring the trend slope over the cycle period to the amplitude of the cyclic swing is one possibility.
We begin by thinking of cycle mode in terms of frequency or its inverse, periodicity. Since the markets are fractal ; daily, weekly, and intraday charts are pretty much indistinguishable when time scales are removed. Thus it is useful to think of the cycle period in terms of its bar count. For example, a 20 bar cycle using daily data corresponds to a cycle period of approximately one month.
When viewed as a waveform, slow-varying price trends constitute the waveform's low frequency components and day-to-day fluctuations (noise) constitute the high frequency components. The objective in cycle mode is to filter out the unwanted components--both low frequency trends and the high frequency noise--and retain only the range of frequencies over the desired swing period. A filter for doing this is called a bandpass filter and the range of frequencies passed is the filter's bandwidth.
Included:
-Toggle on/off bar coloring
-Customize RSI signal using fixed, VHF Adaptive, and Band-pass Adaptive calculations
-Choose from three different RSI types
Visuals:
-Red/Green line is the moving average of RSI
-Thin white line is the fast trend
-Dotted yellow line is the slow trend
Happy trading!
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression ModelThis is the main version of the script. Click here for the Oscillator part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines. The Oscillator version can be found here.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Bitcoin Polynomial Regression OscillatorThis is the oscillator version of the script. Click here for the other part of the script.
💡Why this model was created:
One of the key issues with most existing models, including our own Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model , is that they often fail to realistically account for diminishing returns. As a result, they may present overly optimistic bull cycle targets (hence, we introduced alternative settings in our previous Bitcoin Log Growth Curve Model).
This new model however, has been built from the ground up with a primary focus on incorporating the principle of diminishing returns. It directly responds to this concept, which has been briefly explored here .
📉The theory of diminishing returns:
This theory suggests that as each four-year market cycle unfolds, volatility gradually decreases, leading to more tempered price movements. It also implies that the price increase from one cycle peak to the next will decrease over time as the asset matures. The same pattern applies to cycle lows and the relationship between tops and bottoms. In essence, these price movements are interconnected and should generally follow a consistent pattern. We believe this model provides a more realistic outlook on bull and bear market cycles.
To better understand this theory, the relationships between cycle tops and bottoms are outlined below:https://www.tradingview.com/x/7Hldzsf2/
🔧Creation of the model:
For those interested in how this model was created, the process is explained here. Otherwise, feel free to skip this section.
This model is based on two separate cubic polynomial regression lines. One for the top price trend and another for the bottom. Both follow the general cubic polynomial function:
ax^3 +bx^2 + cx + d.
In this equation, x represents the weekly bar index minus an offset, while a, b, c, and d are determined through polynomial regression analysis. The input (x, y) values used for the polynomial regression analysis are as follows:
Top regression line (x, y) values:
113, 18.6
240, 1004
451, 19128
655, 65502
Bottom regression line (x, y) values:
103, 2.5
267, 211
471, 3193
676, 16255
The values above correspond to historical Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms, where x is the weekly bar index and y is the weekly closing price of Bitcoin. The best fit is determined using metrics such as R-squared values, residual error analysis, and visual inspection. While the exact details of this evaluation are beyond the scope of this post, the following optimal parameters were found:
Top regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000202798
b: 0.0872922
c: -30.88805
d: 1827.14113
Bottom regression line parameter values:
a: 0.000138314
b: -0.0768236
c: 13.90555
d: -765.8892
📊Polynomial Regression Oscillator:
This publication also includes the oscillator version of the this model which is displayed at the bottom of the screen. The oscillator applies a logarithmic transformation to the price and the regression lines using the formula log10(x) .
The log-transformed price is then normalized using min-max normalization relative to the log-transformed top and bottom regression line with the formula:
normalized price = log(close) - log(bottom regression line) / log(top regression line) - log(bottom regression line)
This transformation results in a price value between 0 and 1 between both the regression lines.
🔍Interpretation of the Model:
In general, the red area represents a caution zone, as historically, the price has often been near its cycle market top within this range. On the other hand, the green area is considered an area of opportunity, as historically, it has corresponded to the market bottom.
The top regression line serves as a signal for the absolute market cycle peak, while the bottom regression line indicates the absolute market cycle bottom.
Additionally, this model provides a predicted range for Bitcoin's future price movements, which can be used to make extrapolated predictions. We will explore this further below.
🔮Future Predictions:
Finally, let's discuss what this model actually predicts for the potential upcoming market cycle top and the corresponding market cycle bottom. In our previous post here , a cycle interval analysis was performed to predict a likely time window for the next cycle top and bottom:
In the image, it is predicted that the next top-to-top cycle interval will be 208 weeks, which translates to November 3rd, 2025. It is also predicted that the bottom-to-top cycle interval will be 152 weeks, which corresponds to October 13th, 2025. On the macro level, these two dates align quite well. For our prediction, we take the average of these two dates: October 24th 2025. This will be our target date for the bull cycle top.
Now, let's do the same for the upcoming cycle bottom. The bottom-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 205 weeks, which translates to October 19th, 2026, and the top-to-bottom cycle interval is predicted to be 259 weeks, which corresponds to October 26th, 2026. We then take the average of these two dates, predicting a bear cycle bottom date target of October 19th, 2026.
Now that we have our predicted top and bottom cycle date targets, we can simply reference these two dates to our model, giving us the Bitcoin top price prediction in the range of 152,000 in Q4 2025 and a subsequent bottom price prediction in the range of 46,500 in Q4 2026.
For those interested in understanding what this specifically means for the predicted diminishing return top and bottom cycle values, the image below displays these predicted values. The new values are highlighted in yellow:
And of course, keep in mind that these targets are just rough estimates. While we've done our best to estimate these targets through a data-driven approach, markets will always remain unpredictable in nature. What are your targets? Feel free to share them in the comment section below.
Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram [Loxx]Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram contains two versions of Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. This indicator is meant to supplement adaptive cycle indicators that myself and others have published on Trading View, will continue to publish on Trading View. These are fast-loading, low-overhead, streamlined, exact replicas of Ehlers' work without any other adjustments or inputs.
Versions:
- 2013, Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts by John F. Ehlers
- 2016, TASC September, "Measuring Market Cycles"
Description
The Ehlers Autocorrelation study is a technical indicator used in the calculation of John F. Ehlers’s Autocorrelation Periodogram. Its main purpose is to eliminate noise from the price data, reduce effects of the “spectral dilation” phenomenon, and reveal dominant cycle periods. The spectral dilation has been discussed in several studies by John F. Ehlers; for more information on this, refer to sources in the "Further Reading" section.
As the first step, Autocorrelation uses Mr. Ehlers’s previous installment, Ehlers Roofing Filter, in order to enhance the signal-to-noise ratio and neutralize the spectral dilation. This filter is based on aerospace analog filters and when applied to market data, it attempts to only pass spectral components whose periods are between 10 and 48 bars.
Autocorrelation is then applied to the filtered data: as its name implies, this function correlates the data with itself a certain period back. As with other correlation techniques, the value of +1 would signify the perfect correlation and -1, the perfect anti-correlation.
Using values of Autocorrelation in Thermo Mode may help you reveal the cycle periods within which the data is best correlated (or anti-correlated) with itself. Those periods are displayed in the extreme colors (orange) while areas of intermediate colors mark periods of less useful cycles.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book mentioned above, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average ( KAMA ) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average ( VIDYA ) adapt to changes in volatility . By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic , relative strength index ( RSI ), commodity channel index ( CCI ), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator.This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, as we have seen in previous chapters, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
How to use this indicator
The point of the Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm is to dynamically set a period between a minimum and a maximum period length. While I leave the exact explanation of the mechanic to Dr. Ehlers’s book, for all practical intents and purposes, in my opinion, the punchline of this method is to attempt to remove a massive source of overfitting from trading system creation–namely specifying a look-back period. SMA of 50 days? 100 days? 200 days? Well, theoretically, this algorithm takes that possibility of overfitting out of your hands. Simply, specify an upper and lower bound for your look-back, and it does the rest. In addition, this indicator tells you when its best to use adaptive cycle inputs for your other indicators.
Usage Example 1
Let's say you're using "Adaptive Qualitative Quantitative Estimation (QQE) ". This indicator has the option of adaptive cycle inputs. When the "Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram " shows a period of high correlation that adaptive cycle inputs work best during that period.
Usage Example 2
Check where the dominant cycle line lines, grab that output number and inject it into your other standard indicators for the length input.
Aeon FluxAeon Flux visualizes rolling cumulative realized volatility, as a signal-generating leading indicator.
'Realized volatility' is shorthand for the metric's true output: entropy . The uniformity (or lack of uniformity) of price and volume distributions over a rolling cumulative period, normalized across the asset's full history.
Entropy = x⋅log2(x)−(1−x)⋅log2(1−x)
AEON FLUX VISUALIZES TIME CYCLES
Aeon Flux distills any asset's cyclical pendulum-like behavior, from bull to bear and vice versa, in a visualization that surfaces and isolates the pendulum shift.
As such, Aeon Flux may be the first metric to automate visualization of time cycles.
Time cycles are a soft science and esoteric concept in markets: an opinion, hard to prove or disprove.
They're ultimately just cycles of accumulation & distribution, that tend to recur at rough consistent intervals.
(Aeon Flux does not measure accumulation & distribution directly, those forces are merely implied.)
ENTROPY AS A LEADING INDICATOR
The transitions between state (from bullish to bearish & vice versa) are often good swing entries & exits, across a wide range of high cap risk markets.
ENTROPY AS A DISTRIBUTION MONITOR
Aeon Flux has a track record of detecting higher timeframe macro distribution on the BTC Index.
The signal: two cycles in a row of lower highs, where the cycle high (the highest oscillator print achieved that cycle) is lower than the previous cycle's high.
Invalidation: if the second cycle in a row of lower highs touches the green AND red target areas on its way up, that demonstrates robust volatility, and the distribution signal is invalidated.
ALERTS & NOTIFICATIONS
Alerts are enabled for swing long & short signals. Automating alerts to monitor distribution are a potential enhancement for future iterations of the script.
Bitcoin Macro Trend Map [Ox_kali]
## Introduction
__________________________________________________________________________________
The “Bitcoin Macro Trend Map” script is designed to provide a comprehensive analysis of Bitcoin’s macroeconomic trends. By leveraging a unique combination of Bitcoin-specific macroeconomic indicators, this script helps traders identify potential market peaks and troughs with greater accuracy. It synthesizes data from multiple sources to offer a probabilistic view of market excesses, whether overbought or oversold conditions.
This script offers significant value for the following reasons:
1. Holistic Market Analysis : It integrates a diverse set of indicators that cover various aspects of the Bitcoin market, from investor sentiment and market liquidity to mining profitability and network health. This multi-faceted approach provides a more complete picture of the market than relying on a single indicator.
2. Customization and Flexibility : Users can customize the script to suit their specific trading strategies and preferences. The script offers configurable parameters for each indicator, allowing traders to adjust settings based on their analysis needs.
3. Visual Clarity : The script plots all indicators on a single chart with clear visual cues. This includes color-coded indicators and background changes based on market conditions, making it easy for traders to quickly interpret complex data.
4. Proven Indicators : The script utilizes well-established indicators like the EMA, NUPL, PUELL Multiple, and Hash Ribbons, which are widely recognized in the trading community for their effectiveness in predicting market movements.
5. A New Comprehensive Indicator : By integrating background color changes based on the aggregate signals of various indicators, this script essentially creates a new, comprehensive indicator tailored specifically for Bitcoin. This visual representation provides an immediate overview of market conditions, enhancing the ability to spot potential market reversals.
Optimal for use on timeframes ranging from 1 day to 1 week , the “Bitcoin Macro Trend Map” provides traders with actionable insights, enhancing their ability to make informed decisions in the highly volatile Bitcoin market. By combining these indicators, the script delivers a robust tool for identifying market extremes and potential reversal points.
## Key Indicators
__________________________________________________________________________________
Macroeconomic Data: The script combines several relevant macroeconomic indicators for Bitcoin, such as the 10-month EMA, M2 money supply, CVDD, Pi Cycle, NUPL, PUELL, MRVR Z-Scores, and Hash Ribbons (Full description bellow).
Open Source Sources: Most of the scripts used are sourced from open-source projects that I have modified to meet the specific needs of this script.
Recommended Timeframes: For optimal performance, it is recommended to use this script on timeframes ranging from 1 day to 1 week.
Objective: The primary goal is to provide a probabilistic solution to identify market excesses, whether overbought or oversold points.
## Originality and Purpose
__________________________________________________________________________________
This script stands out by integrating multiple macroeconomic indicators into a single comprehensive tool. Each indicator is carefully selected and customized to provide insights into different aspects of the Bitcoin market. By combining these indicators, the script offers a holistic view of market conditions, helping traders identify potential tops and bottoms with greater accuracy. This is the first version of the script, and additional macroeconomic indicators will be added in the future based on user feedback and other inputs.
## How It Works
__________________________________________________________________________________
The script works by plotting each macroeconomic indicator on a single chart, allowing users to visualize and interpret the data easily. Here’s a detailed look at how each indicator contributes to the analysis:
EMA 10 Monthly: Uses an exponential moving average over 10 monthly periods to signal bullish and bearish trends. This indicator helps identify long-term trends in the Bitcoin market by smoothing out price fluctuations to reveal the underlying trend direction.Moving Averages w/ 18 day/week/month.
Credit to @ryanman0
M2 Money Supply: Analyzes the evolution of global money supply, indicating market liquidity conditions. This indicator tracks the changes in the total amount of money available in the economy, which can impact Bitcoin’s value as a hedge against inflation or economic instability.
Credit to @dylanleclair
CVDD (Cumulative Value Days Destroyed): An indicator based on the cumulative value of days destroyed, useful for identifying market turning points. This metric helps assess the Bitcoin market’s health by evaluating the age and value of coins that are moved, indicating potential shifts in market sentiment.
Credit to @Da_Prof
Pi Cycle: Uses simple and exponential moving averages to detect potential sell points. This indicator aims to identify cyclical peaks in Bitcoin’s price, providing signals for potential market tops.
Credit to @NoCreditsLeft
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss): Measures investors’ unrealized profit or loss to signal extreme market levels. This indicator shows the net profit or loss of Bitcoin holders as a percentage of the market cap, helping to identify periods of significant market optimism or pessimism.
Credit to @Da_Prof
PUELL Multiple: Assesses mining profitability relative to historical averages to indicate buying or selling opportunities. This indicator compares the daily issuance value of Bitcoin to its yearly average, providing insights into when the market is overbought or oversold based on miner behavior.
Credit to @Da_Prof
MRVR Z-Scores: Compares market value to realized value to identify overbought or oversold conditions. This metric helps gauge the overall market sentiment by comparing Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, identifying potential reversal points.
Credit to @Pinnacle_Investor
Hash Ribbons: Uses hash rate variations to signal buying opportunities based on miner capitulation and recovery. This indicator tracks the health of the Bitcoin network by analyzing hash rate trends, helping to identify periods of miner capitulation and subsequent recoveries as potential buying opportunities.
Credit to @ROBO_Trading
## Indicator Visualization and Interpretation
__________________________________________________________________________________
For each horizontal line representing an indicator, a legend is displayed on the right side of the chart. If the conditions are positive for an indicator, it will turn green, indicating the end of a bearish trend. Conversely, if the conditions are negative, the indicator will turn red, signaling the end of a bullish trend.
The background color of the chart changes based on the average of green or red indicators. This parameter is configurable, allowing adjustment of the threshold at which the background color changes, providing a clear visual indication of overall market conditions.
## Script Parameters
__________________________________________________________________________________
The script includes several configurable parameters to customize the display and behavior of the indicators:
Color Style:
Normal: Default colors.
Modern: Modern color style.
Monochrome: Monochrome style.
User: User-customized colors.
Custom color settings for up trends (Up Trend Color), down trends (Down Trend Color), and NaN (NaN Color)
Background Color Thresholds:
Thresholds: Settings to define the thresholds for background color change.
Low/High Red Threshold: Low and high thresholds for bearish trends.
Low/High Green Threshold: Low and high thresholds for bullish trends.
Indicator Display:
Options to show or hide specific indicators such as EMA 10 Monthly, CVDD, Pi Cycle, M2 Money, NUPL, PUELL, MRVR Z-Scores, and Hash Ribbons.
Specific Indicator Settings:
EMA 10 Monthly: Options to customize the period for the exponential moving average calculation.
M2 Money: Aggregation of global money supply data.
CVDD: Adjustments for value normalization.
Pi Cycle: Settings for simple and exponential moving averages.
NUPL: Thresholds for unrealized profit/loss values.
PUELL: Adjustments for mining profitability multiples.
MRVR Z-Scores: Settings for overbought/oversold values.
Hash Ribbons: Options for hash rate moving averages and capitulation/recovery signals.
## Conclusion
__________________________________________________________________________________
The “Bitcoin Macro Trend Map” by Ox_kali is a tool designed to analyze the Bitcoin market. By combining several macroeconomic indicators, this script helps identify market peaks and troughs. It is recommended to use it on timeframes from 1 day to 1 week for optimal trend analysis. The scripts used are sourced from open-source projects, modified to suit the specific needs of this analysis.
## Notes
__________________________________________________________________________________
This is the first version of the script and it is still in development. More indicators will likely be added in the future. Feedback and comments are welcome to improve this tool.
## Disclaimer:
__________________________________________________________________________________
Please note that the Open Interest liquidation map is not a guarantee of future market performance and should be used in conjunction with proper risk management. Always ensure that you have a thorough understanding of the indicator’s methodology and its limitations before making any investment decisions. Additionally, past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wyckoff Phases OscillatorThe "Wyckoff Phases Oscillator" is a script designed for the TradingView platform. It's an indicator that provides traders with an oscillator-based visual representation of the Wyckoff Market Cycle. The oscillator doesn't overlay the price chart but instead appears in a separate panel beneath it.
How it works:
The script operates based on two input parameters: length and timeFrame. The length parameter, set by default to 21, determines the period used for various calculations within the script. On the other hand, timeFrame, set by default to "1", specifies the timeframe for which the script will gather and analyze data.
The script requests security information such as closing prices (higherClose), volume (higherVolume), highest prices (higherHigh), and lowest prices (higherLow) from the ticker symbol (syminfo.tickerid) within the defined timeframe.
Two exponential moving averages (ema1 and ema2) are calculated based on the closing prices, with lengths of 5 and 9 respectively.
A Rate of Change (ROC) is calculated based on the closing prices and the defined length.
An average volume (avgVolume) is calculated using a simple moving average (SMA) based on the volume and the defined length.
The script defines conditions for institutional buying and selling.
Institutional buying is determined when the closing price is greater than the lowest price and the volume is greater than the average volume.
Institutional selling is determined when the closing price is less than the highest price and the volume is greater than the average volume.
The script also defines conditions for the four phases of the Wyckoff Market Cycle: Accumulation, Markup, Distribution, and Markdown. Each phase has specific conditions based on the closing prices, EMA values, ROC, and institutional buying or selling conditions.
The script then assigns oscillator values based on the Wyckoff phase:
Accumulation is assigned a value of 1
Markup is assigned a value of 2
Distribution is assigned a value of 3
Markdown is assigned a value of 4
These oscillator values are plotted as colored circles, with different colors representing different phases. The color values are specified in RGB format.
Finally, the script plots horizontal lines as references for each of the four phases using the hline function. These lines are labeled and color-coded to match the corresponding oscillator circles. The lines have a linewidth of 1 and are solid in style.
If the oscillator moves from level 1 (Accumulation) to level 2 (Markup), this could indicate a potential bullish trend, as the market moves from a phase of accumulation to a phase of increasing prices.
Conversely, if the oscillator moves from level 3 (Distribution) to level 4 (Markdown), this could signal a potential bearish trend, signaling that the market has moved from a phase of distribution to a phase of declining prices.
While the Wyckoff Phases Oscillator can provide valuable insights on its own, it can also be used in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and indicators. For example, you might use it alongside a volume indicator to confirm signals, or with support and resistance levels to identify potential entry and exit points.
Triangulation : Statistically Approved ReversalsA lot of calculation, but a simple and effective result displayed on the chart.
It automatically identifies a very favorable period for a price reversal, by analyzing the daily and intraday price action statistics from the maximum of the most recent bars from the historical data. No repainting. Alerts can be set.
The statistical study is done in real time for each instrument. The probabilities therefore vary over time and adapt to the latest information collected by the indicator.
The time range of the data study can be changed by simply changing the UT :
- 30m = 3.5 last months feed statistics
- 15m = 52 last days feed statistics
- 5m = 17 last days feed statistics (recommanded)
HOW TO USE
This indicator informs when we are in a time period strongly favorable to reversal.
==> Crossing probabilities of different kinds, in price and in time => Triangulation of top and bottom !
HOW It WORK :
fractal statistics on high and low formation.
hour's probabilities of making the high/low of the day are crossed with day's probabilities of making the high/low of the week.
First for the day, we study:
- value of the probability compared to the average probabilities
- value of the coefficient between the high probability and the low probability
which we then refine for the hour, with the same calculation.
Result: bright color for a day + hour with high probability, weak color if the probability is low but remains the only possible bias. Between these two possibilities, intermediate colors are possible - just like looking for shorts if the day is bullish, if it is a high probability hour!
This color is displayed in the background, only if we are forming the high of the day for tops, and the low of the day for bottoms - detected with a stochastic.
All probabilities are studied in real time for the current asset.
We will call this signal "killstats", for "killzones statistics"
fractal statistics on the probability of closure under specific predefined levels according to 36 cycles.
the probabilities of several cycles are studied, for example:
NY session versus London and Asian sessions, London session compared to its opening, NY session compared to its opening, "algorithmic cycles" ( 1h30), Opening of NY compared to its intersection with London..
Each cycle producing a probability of closing with respect to the opening price of each period. The periods are : (Etc/UTC)
15-18h / 15-16h / 9-13h / 14-17h / 18-22h / 10-12h / 9-10h30 / 10h30-12h / 12-13h30 / 13h30-15h / 15h-16h30 / 16h30-18h
The cycles can be superimposed, which allows to support or attenuate a signal for the key periods of the day: 9am-12pm, and 3pm-6pm. The period of the day covered by the study of cycles is 9h-22h.
Result : ==> a straight line with a half bell. Colors = almost transparent for 53% probability (low), and very intense for a high probability (75%). The line displayed corresponds to the opening price, which we are supposed to close within the time limit - before the end of the period, where the line stops.
If the price goes in the opposite direction to the one predicted by the statistics, then a background connects the price to the close level to be respected.
if direction and close is respected, nothing is displayed : there is no opportunity, no divergence between statistics and actual price moves.
By unchecking the "light mode", you can see each close level displayed on the chart, with the corresponding probability and the number of times the cycle was detected. The color varies from intense for a high probability (75%), to light for a low probability (53%)
We will call this signal "cyclic anomalies"
By default, as shown in the indicator presentation image, the "intersection only" option is checked: only the intersection between 1) killstats and 2) cyclic anomalies is displayed. (filter +-30% of killstats signals)
MORE INFORMATIONS
/!\ : during a backtest, it is necessary to refresh the studied data to benefit from the real time signals, and for that you have to use the replay mode. if "Backtesting informations?"is checked, labels are displayed on the graph to warn of the % distortion of the signals. I recommend using the replay mode every 250 candles, and every 1000 candles for premium accounts, to have real signals.
- Alerts can be set for killzone, or intersections ( As in presentation picture)
- The ideal use is in m5. It can trigger several times a day, sometimes in opposite directions, and sometimes not trigger for several days.
- Premium account have 20k candles data, and not 5k => signals may vary depending on your tradingview subscription.
Retrograde Motion - Future Projections: [Blueprint_So9]█ Retrograde Motion with Future Projections
Overview
This indicator visualizes planetary retrograde motion both historically and into the future across any timeframe up to 500 bars. Whether you’re reviewing past retrograde cycles or anticipating upcoming ones, this tool provides a clear and customizable view for analysis.
What is Retrograde?
Retrograde motion occurs when a planet appears to reverse direction from Earth’s perspective. This optical illusion, caused by relative planetary orbits, has long been studied for its potential timing relevance in financial and psychological cycles. Retrogrades are often associated with review, reversal, or disruption phases.
🔹 Key Features
Historical and Future Projection
Track retrograde cycles both in hindsight and into upcoming dates, allowing you to draw potential zones of interest before they arrive.
Split-Half Retrograde Visualization
Each retrograde period is divided into two halves, clearly highlighting the 50% midpoint. Users can view either the full retrograde duration or focus on each half separately for more granular analysis.
Multi-Timeframe Compatibility
Built to function seamlessly across all timeframes.
Planet Selection
Choose which planetary retrograde cycle to display.
Custom Visual Options
Toggle between full retrograde overlays or half-cycle shading. Background color transparency can be adjusted.
Original Logic: Future Projection Integration
This tool is one of the first to implement forward-looking retrograde cycle projections with midpoint segmentation.
This indicator uses planetary data from the Astrolib library by @BarefootJoey
MastersCycleSignal(Mastersinnifty)Overview
MastersCycleSignal is a high-precision market timing and projection indicator for trend-following and swing traders.
It combines an adaptive cycle detection algorithm, forward-looking sine wave projections, dynamic momentum confirmation, and Gann Square of 9-based geometric targets into a complete structured trading framework.
The script continuously analyzes price oscillations to detect dominant cycles, projects expected price behavior with future-facing sine approximations, and generates buy/sell signals once confirmed by adaptive momentum filtering.
Upon confirmation, it calculates mathematically consistent Gann-based target levels and risk-managed stop-loss suggestions.
Users also benefit from auto-extending targets as price action unfolds — helping traders anticipate rather than react to market shifts.
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Uniqueness
MastersCycleSignal stands apart through a unique fusion of techniques:
- Dynamic Cycle Detection
- Detects dominant cycles using a cosine correlation maximization method between detrended price (close minus SMA) and theoretical cosine curves, dynamically recalibrated across a sliding window.
- Sine Wave Future Projection
- Smooths and projects future price paths by approximating a forward sine wave based on the real-time detected dominant cycle.
- Adaptive Momentum Filtering
- Volatility is scaled by divergence between normalized returns and a 5-period EMA, further adjusted by an RSI(2) factor.
- This makes buy/sell signal confirmation robust against noise and false breakouts.
- Gann-Based Target Computation
- Uses a square-root transformation of price, incremented by selectable Gann Square of 9 degrees, for calculating progressive and dynamically expanding price targets.
- Auto-Extending Targets
- As price achieves a projected target, the system automatically draws subsequent new targets based on the prior target differential — providing continuous guidance in trending conditions.
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Usefulness
MastersCycleSignal is built to help traders:
- Identify early trend reversals through cycle shifts.
- Forecast probable price paths in advance.
- Plan systematic target and stop-loss zones with geometric accuracy.
- Reduce guesswork in trend-following and swing trading.
- Maintain structured discipline across intraday, swing, and positional strategies.
It works seamlessly across stocks, indices, forex, commodities, and crypto markets — on any timeframe.
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How to Use
- Attach the indicator to your desired chart.
- When a Buy Signal or Sell Signal appears (green or red markers):
- Use the attached stop-loss labels to manage risk.
- Monitor the automatically plotted target lines for partial exits or full profits.
- The orange projected sine wave illustrates the expected future market path.
- Customization Options:
- Cycle Detection Length — adjust to fine-tune cycle sensitivity.
- Projection Length — modify the forward distance of sine wave forecast.
- Gann Square of 9 Degrees — personalize target increments.
- Toggle Signals and Target visibility as needed.
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Disclaimer
- MastersCycleSignal uses no future data or lookahead bias.
- All projections are based on geometric extrapolations from historical price action — not guaranteed predictions.
- Trading involves risks, and historical cycle behavior may differ in future conditions.
Revolution SMA-EMA DivergenceThis is an MACD inspired indicator and it analyzes the difference between the SMA and EMA using the same time period. Unlike the MACD, it can give you a better understanding of the overall trend. Values above 0 is bullish and below 0 bearish. It consists of two cycles: Black histogram - the long-term cycle and orange histogram - the short-term cycle, as well as timing signal (red line).
Bitcoin Halving Rainbow + S2F Model PriceOverview
The rainbow price line:
This script creates a colorful view of Bitcoin's price action, where different colors indicate the time until the next halving date. The color scale in the top right highlights what each main color group represents in terms of days until the next halving. Using historical data, the simple indication of days until the next halving has somewhat accurately predicted potential bottoms and tops of market cycles. Comparing current colors to previous cycles provides a rough view of where BTC is in its current cycle and what to expect going forward until the next halving date.
In addition to the colored price action, I have incorporated the stock-to-flow model price for Bitcoin.
The stock-to-flow (S2F) model price:
The stock-to-flow ratio is a calculation that aims to estimate how many years are required to produce the current stock of an asset, based on the current production rate. When applied to Bitcoin, we simply divide the total amount of bitcoins in circulation by the amount of bitcoins mined in a certain timeframe. Once we have this value, we can calculate a model price based on the stock-to-flow ratio. This S2F model price uses a 463-day moving average. Preston Pysh came up with this number as he believed Bitcoin cycles happen in three phases: bull run, correction, and a reversion to the mean. He estimated there are about 200,000 blocks per cycle, three phases per cycle, and ~144 blocks per day. Dividing all three gets us 463. I have removed 1,000,000 coins from this calculation to account for Satoshi's coins.
The process I took to plot this model price (credit to PlanB for originally creating this calculation):
-Declare constant variables for the halving period, starting block reward, and the number of coins Satoshi owns.
-Fetch the block index by using the request.security() function.
-Determine the number of halvings that have occurred by dividing the block index by the halving period.
-Calculate the current block reward by multiplying the initial block reward by 0.5 raised to the power of the number of halvings.
-Calculate the number of blocks mined per period (day or week) and derive the stock (total bitcoins in circulation minus Satoshi's coins) and flow (annual block rewards) from it.
-Calculate the S2F ratio by dividing the stock by the flow.
-Calculate the S2F model price by applying a mathematical formula (ModelPrice = exp(-1.84) * S2F to the power of 3.36) along with a 463-day moving average.
** Please note, due to the use of the 463-day MA, the first ~400 days of the S2F model price is not entirely accurate.
In addition to the above, I have added vertical lines on each halving date, along with labels that have a tooltip if you hover over them, which will show more information about that particular halving.
Important tips:
-This script has been designed to work on the 1-Day timeframe but can also work on the 1-Week timeframe. Any other timeframe will not accurately plot all the information due to the way I have developed the script.
-This script is best used on the ticker I have posted this on, "INDEX:BTCUSD". It can also work on "BLX" or "BITSTAMP:BTCUSD".
-Hide candles when using the script to just show the halving rainbow (hover over the symbol name in the top left and press the eye icon).
-Right-click the price scale and select "Scale price chart only" to get a better view of the plots.
-Right-click the price scale and select "Logarithmic."
-I will update the script as time goes on to show future halvings along with adjusting the next halving date as we get closer (if it changes).
Settings Menu:
Tooltips are included explaining what the settings do, but here's a quick summary:
-'Show Vertical Halving Lines?': Default is true. This allows the user to remove the vertical lines shown on each halving date.
-'Show Halving Labels?': Default is true. This allows the user to remove the info labels shown on each halving date.
-'Halving Line and Label Color': Default is white. This allows the user to change the color of the halving lines and labels to better fit their chart layout.
-'Show Stock to Flow Model Price?': Default is true. This allows the user to remove the S2F model price.
-'Stock to Flow Model Price Color': Default is white. This allows the user to change the color of the S2F model price to better fit their chart layout.
-'Draw Color Table?': Default is true. This allows the user to remove the color table in the top right of the chart.
-'Distance rainbow is away from actual price action': Default is 0 (Plots over candles). This allows the user to adjust where the halving rainbow is plotted if they would like to also see candles on the chart. (Use any value under 0.9)
Feel free to message me or comment on the post with any questions or issues!
Much more to come!
Thanks for reading, enjoy!
Quarterly Theory ICT 05 [TradingFinder] Doubling Theory Signals🔵 Introduction
Doubling Theory is an advanced approach to price action and market structure analysis that uniquely combines time-based analysis with key Smart Money concepts such as SMT (Smart Money Technique), SSMT (Sequential SMT), Liquidity Sweep, and the Quarterly Theory ICT.
By leveraging fractal time structures and precisely identifying liquidity zones, this method aims to reveal institutional activity specifically smart money entry and exit points hidden within price movements.
At its core, the market is divided into two structural phases: Doubling 1 and Doubling 2. Each phase contains four quarters (Q1 through Q4), which follow the logic of the Quarterly Theory: Accumulation, Manipulation (Judas Swing), Distribution, and Continuation/Reversal.
These segments are anchored by the True Open, allowing for precise alignment with cyclical market behavior and providing a deeper structural interpretation of price action.
During Doubling 1, a Sequential SMT (SSMT) Divergence typically forms between two correlated assets. This time-structured divergence occurs between two swing points positioned in separate quarters (e.g., Q1 and Q2), where one asset breaks a significant low or high, while the second asset fails to confirm it. This lack of confirmation—especially when aligned with the Manipulation and Accumulation phases—often signals early smart money involvement.
Following this, the highest and lowest price points from Doubling 1 are designated as liquidity zones. As the market transitions into Doubling 2, it commonly returns to these zones in a calculated move known as a Liquidity Sweep—a sharp, engineered spike intended to trigger stop orders and pending positions. This sweep, often orchestrated by institutional players, facilitates entry into large positions with minimal slippage.
Bullish :
Bearish :
🔵 How to Use
Applying Doubling Theory requires a simultaneous understanding of temporal structure and inter-asset behavioral divergence. The method unfolds over two main phases—Doubling 1 and Doubling 2—each divided into four quarters (Q1 to Q4).
The first phase focuses on identifying a Sequential SMT (SSMT) divergence, which forms when two correlated assets (e.g., EURUSD and GBPUSD, or NQ and ES) react differently to key price levels across distinct quarters. For example, one asset may break a previous low while the other maintains structure. This misalignment—especially in Q2, the Manipulation phase—often indicates early smart money accumulation or distribution.
Once this divergence is observed, the extreme highs and lows of Doubling 1 are marked as liquidity zones. In Doubling 2, the market gravitates back toward these zones, executing a Liquidity Sweep.
This move is deliberate—designed to activate clustered stop-loss and pending orders and to exploit pockets of resting liquidity. These sweeps are typically driven by institutional forces looking to absorb liquidity and position themselves ahead of the next major price move.
The key to execution lies in the fact that, during the sweep in Doubling 2, a classic SMT divergence should also appear between the two assets. This indicates a weakening of the previous trend and adds an extra layer of confirmation.
🟣 Bullish Doubling Theory
In the bullish scenario, Doubling 1 begins with a bullish SSMT divergence, where one asset forms a lower low while the other maintains its structure. This divergence signals weakening bearish momentum and possible smart money accumulation. In Doubling 2, the market returns to the previous low and sweeps the liquidity zone—breaking below it on one asset, while the second fails to confirm, forming a bullish SMT divergence.
f this move is followed by a bullish PSP and a clear market structure break (MSB), a long entry is triggered. The stop-loss is placed just below the swept liquidity zone, while the target is set in the premium zone, anticipating a move driven by institutional buyers.
🟣 Bearish Doubling Theory
The bearish scenario follows the same structure in reverse. In Doubling 1, a bearish SSMT divergence occurs when one asset prints a higher high while the other fails to do so. This suggests distribution and weakening buying pressure. Then, in Doubling 2, the market returns to the previous high and executes a liquidity sweep, targeting trapped buyers.
A bearish SMT divergence appears, confirming the move, followed by a bearish PSP on the lower timeframe. A short position is initiated after a confirmed MSB, with the stop-loss placed
🔵 Settings
⚙️ Logical Settings
Quarterly Cycles Type : Select the time segmentation method for SMT analysis.
Available modes include : Yearly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily, 90 Minute, and Micro.
These define how the indicator divides market time into Q1–Q4 cycles.
Symbol : Choose the secondary asset to compare with the main chart asset (e.g., XAUUSD, US100, GBPUSD).
Pivot Period : Sets the sensitivity of the pivot detection algorithm. A smaller value increases responsiveness to price swings.
Pivot Sync Threshold : The maximum allowed difference (in bars) between pivots of the two assets for them to be compared.
Validity Pivot Length : Defines the time window (in bars) during which a divergence remains valid before it's considered outdated.
🎨 Display Settings
Show Cycle :Toggles the visual display of the current Quarter (Q1 to Q4) based on the selected time segmentation
Show Cycle Label : Shows the name (e.g., "Q2") of each detected Quarter on the chart.
Show Labels : Displays dynamic labels (e.g., “Q2”, “Bullish SMT”, “Sweep”) at relevant points.
Show Lines : Draws connection lines between key pivot or divergence points.
Color Settings : Allows customization of colors for bullish and bearish elements (lines, labels, and shapes)
🔔 Alert Settings
Alert Name : Custom name for the alert messages (used in TradingView’s alert system).
Message Frequenc y:
All : Every signal triggers an alert.
Once Per Bar : Alerts once per bar regardless of how many signals occur.
Per Bar Close : Only triggers when the bar closes and the signal still exists.
Time Zone Display : Choose the time zone in which alert timestamps are displayed (e.g., UTC).
Bullish SMT Divergence Alert : Enable/disable alerts specifically for bullish signals.
Bearish SMT Divergence Alert : Enable/disable alerts specifically for bearish signals
🔵 Conclusion
Doubling Theory is a powerful and structured framework within the realm of Smart Money Concepts and ICT methodology, enabling traders to detect high-probability reversal points with precision. By integrating SSMT, SMT, Liquidity Sweeps, and the Quarterly Theory into a unified system, this approach shifts the focus from reactive trading to anticipatory analysis—anchored in time, structure, and liquidity.
What makes Doubling Theory stand out is its logical synergy of time cycles, behavioral divergence, liquidity targeting, and institutional confirmation. In both bullish and bearish scenarios, it provides clearly defined entry and exit strategies, allowing traders to engage the market with confidence, controlled risk, and deeper insight into the mechanics of price manipulation and smart money footprints.
Ehlers Adaptive Relative Strength Index (RSI) [Loxx]Ehlers Adaptive Relative Strength Index (RSI) is an implementation of RSI using Ehlers Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm to derive the length input for RSI. Other implementations of Ehers Adaptive RSI rely on the inferior Hilbert Transformer derive the dominant cycle.
In his book "Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced Technical Trading Concepts", John F. Ehlers describes an implementation for Adaptive Relative Strength Index in order to solve for varying length inputs into the classic RSI equation.
What is an adaptive cycle, and what is the Autocorrelation Periodogram Algorithm?
From his Ehlers' book mentioned above, page 135:
"Adaptive filters can have several different meanings. For example, Perry Kaufman’s adaptive moving average (KAMA) and Tushar Chande’s variable index dynamic average (VIDYA) adapt to changes in volatility. By definition, these filters are reactive to price changes, and therefore they close the barn door after the horse is gone.The adaptive filters discussed in this chapter are the familiar Stochastic, relative strength index (RSI), commodity channel index (CCI), and band-pass filter.The key parameter in each case is the look-back period used to calculate the indicator.This look-back period is commonly a fixed value. However, since the measured cycle period is changing, as we have seen in previous chapters, it makes sense to adapt these indicators to the measured cycle period. When tradable market cycles are observed, they tend to persist for a short while.Therefore, by tuning the indicators to the measure cycle period they are optimized for current conditions and can even have predictive characteristics.
The dominant cycle period is measured using the autocorrelation periodogram algorithm. That dominant cycle dynamically sets the look-back period for the indicators. I employ my own streamlined computation for the indicators that provide smoother and easier to interpret outputs than traditional methods. Further, the indicator codes have been modified to remove the effects of spectral dilation.This basically creates a whole new set of indicators for your trading arsenal."
What is Adaptive RSI?
From his Ehlers' book mentioned above, page 137:
"The adaptive RSI starts with the computation of the dominant cycle using the autocorrelation periodogram approach. Since the objective is to use only those frequency components passed by the roofing filter, the variable "filt" is used as a data input rather than closing prices. Rather than independently taking the averages of the numerator and denominator, I chose to perform smoothing on the ratio using the SuperSmoother filter. The coefficients for the SuperSmoother filters have previously been computed in the dominant cycle measurement part of the code."
Happy trading!
Detrended Rhythm Oscillator (DRO)How to detect the current "market beat" or market cycle?
A common way to capture the current dominant cycle length is to detrend the price and look for common rhythms in the detrended series. A common approach is to use a Detrended Price Oscillator (DPO). This is done in order to identify and isolate short-term cycles.
A basic DPO description can be found here:
www.tradingview.com
Improvements to the standard DPO
The main purpose of the standard DPO is to analyze historical data in order to observe cycle's in a market's movement. DPO can give the technical analyst a better sense of a cycle's typical high/low range as well as its duration. However, you need to manually try to "see" tops and bottoms on the detrended price and measure manually the distance from low-low or high-high in order to derive a possible cycle length.
Therefore, I added the following improvements:
1) Using a DPO to detrend the price
2) Indicate the turns of the detrended price with a ZigZag lines to better see the tops/bottoms
3) Detrend the ZigZag to remove price amplitude between turns to even better see the cyclic turns ("rhythm")
4) Measure the distance from last detrended zigzag pivot (high-high / low-low) and plot the distance in bars above/below the turn
Now, you can clearly see the rhythm of the dataset indicated by the Detrended Rhythm Oscillator including the exact length between the turns. This makes the procedure to "spot" turns and "measure" distance more simple for the trader.
How to use this information
The purpose is to check if there is a common rhythm or beat in the underlying dataset. To check that, look for recurring pattern in the numbers. E.g. if you often see the same measured distance, you can conclude that there is a major dominant cycle in this market. Also watch for harmonic relations between the numbers. So in the example above you see the highlighted cluster of detected length of around 40,80 and 120. There three numbers all have a harmonic relation to 40.
Once you have this cyclic information, you can use this number to optimize or tune technical indicators based on the current dominant cycle length. E.g. set the length parameter of a technical indicator to the detected harmonic length with the DRO indicator.
Example Use-Case
You can use this information to set the input for the following free public open-source script:
Disclaimer
This is not meant to be a technical indicator on its own and the derived cyclic length should not be used to forecast the next turn per se. The indicator should give you an indication of the current market beat or dominant beats which can be use to further optimize other oscillator or trading related settings.
Options & settings
The indicator allows to plot different versions. It allows to plot the original DPO, the DRO with ZigZag lines, the DRO with detrended ZigZag lines and length labels on/off. You can turn on or off these version in the indicator settings. So you can tweak it visually to your own needs.
Gabriel's Global Market CapGabriel's Global Market Cap is a comprehensive financial indicator designed to track and analyze the total market capitalization across multiple asset classes. It incorporates various financial markets, including stocks, bonds, real estate, cryptocurrencies, commodities, derivatives, private equity, insurance, OTC markets, and natural resources, to provide a holistic view of global market dynamics.
This indicator integrates Ehlers' Adaptive Dominant Cycle Detection and a custom VIX formula to adjust market values based on volatility and volume fluctuations, allowing for a more refined understanding of market conditions.
Key Features
✅ Multi-Market Analysis – Tracks 10+ global financial sectors, each represented by a key ETF or index.
✅ Normalization & Readability – Converts market cap values into an easy-to-read format (Millions, Billions, Trillions, Quadrillions).
✅ Volatility & Volume Adjustments – Optional VIX-based smoothing and relative volume adjustment for more dynamic readings.
✅ Ehlers’ Cycle Detection – Utilizes dominant cycle length detection to uncover market rhythms and cyclic behavior.
✅ Risk Thresholds & Background Coloring – Identifies overbought and oversold conditions with cyclic bands and background shading.
✅ Customizable Inputs – Users can toggle different market categories on/off for focused analysis.
✅ Interactive Data Table – Displays real-time values for each asset class in a structured table format.
Market Categories & Data Sources
📈 Global Stock Market – iShares MSCI ACWI ETF (ACWI)
💰 Global Bond Market – Vanguard Total World Bond ETF (BNDW)
🏡 Real Estate Market – iShares Global REIT ETF (REET)
₿ Cryptocurrency Market – Total Crypto Market Cap (CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL)
🌾 Commodities Market – Invesco DB Commodity Index Fund (DBC)
📊 Derivatives Market – CME Group (CME)
🏦 Private Equity & VC – ProShares Global Listed Private Equity ETF (PEX)
🛡️ Insurance Market – SPDR S&P Insurance ETF (KIE)
💹 OTC Markets – OTC Markets Group (OTCM)
⛽ Natural Resources – iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC)
Technical Enhancements
1️⃣ Custom Volatility Index (VIX) Calculation (Work In Progress)
Adjusts asset values based on volatility conditions using Ehlers' Cycle Detection.
Higher VIX reduces market cap, while lower VIX stabilizes it.
2️⃣ Adaptive Market Normalization
Converts absolute market values into a relative strength scale (0-100) for better visual analysis.
Uses historical min/max values to adjust dynamically.
3️⃣ Cyclic Analysis & Overbought/Oversold Levels
Detects hidden market rhythms & time cycles.
Calculates upper and lower risk bands based on dominant cycle length.
Applies background shading for visualizing low or high risk periods.
Customization Options
🔧 Enable/Disable Market Categories – Select which asset classes to track.
📊 Toggle VIX & Volume Smoothing – Adjust how market cap reacts to volatility & volume.
🎨 Cyclic Risk Bands – Highlight overbought/oversold conditions with dynamic background colors.
Visual Elements
📉 Market Cap Trends – Each category is plotted with a unique color.
🌎 Total Global Value (TGV) – A combined index representing all selected markets.
🎨 Background Coloring – Indicates high/low risk periods.
📋 Real-Time Data Table – Displays normalized & raw market cap values in an easy-to-read format.
Practical Applications
📊 Macroeconomic Analysis – Track global liquidity and investment shifts across asset classes.
💹 Volatility & Risk Assessment – Identify high-risk market conditions based on cyclic behavior.
📈 Cross-Market Comparisons – See which sectors are leading or lagging in value growth.
🔍 Crypto & Stock Market Trends – Analyze how traditional and digital assets correlate.
Regime Classifier Oscillator (AiBitcoinTrend)The Regime Classifier Oscillator (AiBitcoinTrend) is an advanced tool for understanding market structure and detecting dynamic price regimes. By combining filtered price trends, clustering algorithms, and an adaptive oscillator, it provides traders with detailed insights into market phases, including accumulation, distribution, advancement, and decline.
This innovative tool simplifies market regime classification, enabling traders to align their strategies with evolving market conditions effectively.
👽 What is a Regime Classifier, and Why is it Useful?
A Regime Classifier is a concept in financial analysis that identifies distinct market conditions or "regimes" based on price behavior and volatility. These regimes often correspond to specific phases of the market, such as trends, consolidations, or periods of high or low volatility. By classifying these regimes, traders and analysts can better understand the underlying market dynamics, allowing them to adapt their strategies to suit prevailing conditions.
👽 Common Uses in Finance
Risk Management: Identifying high-volatility regimes helps traders adjust position sizes or hedge risks.
Strategy Optimization: Traders tailor their approaches—trend-following strategies in trending regimes, mean-reversion strategies in consolidations.
Forecasting: Understanding the current regime aids in predicting potential transitions, such as a shift from accumulation to an upward breakout.
Portfolio Allocation: Investors allocate assets differently based on market regimes, such as increasing cash positions in high-volatility environments.
👽 Why It’s Important
Markets behave differently under varying conditions. A regime classifier provides a structured way to analyze these changes, offering a systematic approach to decision-making. This improves both accuracy and confidence in navigating diverse market scenarios.
👽 How We Implemented the Regime Classifier in This Indicator
The Regime Classifier Oscillator takes the foundational concept of market regime classification and enhances it with advanced computational techniques, making it highly adaptive.
👾 Median Filtering: We smooth price data using a custom median filter to identify significant trends while eliminating noise. This establishes a baseline for price movement analysis.
👾 Clustering Model: Using clustering techniques, the indicator classifies volatility and price trends into distinct regimes:
Advance: Strong upward trends with low volatility.
Decline: Downward trends marked by high volatility.
Accumulation: Consolidation phases with subdued volatility.
Distribution: Topping or bottoming patterns with elevated volatility.
This classification leverages historical price data to refine cluster boundaries dynamically, ensuring adaptive and accurate detection of market states.
Volatility Classification: Price volatility is analyzed through rolling windows, separating data into high and low volatility clusters using distance-based assignments.
Price Trends: The interaction of price levels with the filtered trendline and volatility clusters determines whether the market is advancing, declining, accumulating, or distributing.
👽 Dynamic Cycle Oscillator (DCO):
Captures cyclic behavior and overlays it with smoothed oscillations, providing real-time feedback on price momentum and potential reversals.
Regime Visualization:
Regimes are displayed with intuitive labels and background colors, offering clear, actionable insights directly on the chart.
👽 Why This Implementation Stands Out
Dynamic and Adaptive: The clustering and refit mechanisms adapt to changing market conditions, ensuring relevance across different asset classes and timeframes.
Comprehensive Insights: By combining price trends, volatility, and cyclic behaviors, the indicator provides a holistic view of the market.
This implementation bridges the gap between theoretical regime classification and practical trading needs, making it a powerful tool for both novice and experienced traders.
👽 Applications
👾 Regime-Based Trading Strategies
Traders can use the regime classifications to adapt their strategies effectively:
Advance & Accumulation: Favorable for entering or holding long positions.
Decline & Distribution: Opportunities for short positions or risk management.
👾 Oscillator Insights for Trend Analysis
Overbought/oversold conditions: Early warning of potential reversals.
Dynamic trends: Highlights the strength of price momentum.
👽 Indicator Settings
👾 Filter and Classification Settings
Filter Window Size: Controls trend detection sensitivity.
ATR Lookback: Adjusts the threshold for regime classification.
Clustering Window & Refit Interval: Fine-tunes regime accuracy.
👾 Oscillator Settings
Dynamic Cycle Oscillator Lookback: Defines the sensitivity of cycle detection.
Smoothing Factor: Balances responsiveness and stability.
Disclaimer: This information is for entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
