Market Health MonitorThe Market Health Monitor is a comprehensive tool designed to assess and visualize the economic health of a market, providing traders with vital insights into both current and future market conditions. This script integrates a range of critical economic indicators, including unemployment rates, inflation, Federal Reserve funds rates, consumer confidence, and housing market indices, to form a robust understanding of the overall economic landscape.
Drawing on a variety of data sources, the Market Health Monitor employs moving averages over periods of 3, 12, 36, and 120 months, corresponding to quarterly, annual, three-year, and ten-year economic cycles. This selection of timeframes is specifically chosen to capture the nuances of economic movements across different phases, providing a balanced view that is sensitive to both immediate changes and long-term trends.
Key Features:
Economic Indicators Integration: The script synthesizes crucial economic data such as unemployment rates, inflation levels, and housing market trends, offering a multi-dimensional perspective on market health.
Adaptability to Market Conditions: The inclusion of both short-term and long-term moving averages allows the Market Health Monitor to adapt to varying market conditions, making it a versatile tool for different trading strategies.
Oscillator Thresholds for Recession and Growth: The script sets specific thresholds that, when crossed, indicate either potential economic downturns (recessions) or periods of growth (expansions), allowing traders to anticipate and react to changing market conditions proactively.
Color-Coded Visualization: The Market Health Monitor employs a color-coding system for ease of interpretation:
-- A red background signals unhealthy economic conditions, cautioning traders about potential risks.
-- A bright red background indicates a confirmed recession, as declared by the NBER, signaling a critical time for traders to reassess risk exposure.
-- A green background suggests a healthy market with expected economic expansion, pointing towards growth-oriented opportunities.
Comprehensive Market Analysis: By combining various economic indicators, the script offers a holistic view of the market, enabling traders to make well-informed decisions based on a thorough understanding of the economic environment.
Key Criteria and Parameters:
Economic Indicators:
Labor Market: The unemployment rate is a critical indicator of economic health.
High or rising unemployment indicates reduced consumer spending and economic stress.
Inflation: Key for understanding monetary policy and consumer purchasing power.
Persistent high inflation can lead to economic instability, while deflation can signal weak
demand.
Monetary Policy: Reflected by the Federal Reserve funds rate.
Changes in the rate can influence economic activity, borrowing costs, and investor
sentiment.
Consumer Confidence: A predictor of consumer spending and economic activity.
Reflects the public’s perception of the economy
Housing Market: The housing market often leads the economy into recession and recovery.
Weakness here can signal broader economic problems.
Market Data:
Stock Market Indices: Reflect overall investor sentiment and economic
expectations. No gains in a stock market could potentially indicate that economy is
slowing down.
Credit Conditions: Indicated by the tightness of bank lending, signaling risk
perception.
Commodity Insight:
Crude Oil Prices: A proxy for global economic activity.
Indicator Timeframe:
A default monthly timeframe is chosen to align with the release frequency of many economic indicators, offering a balanced view between timely data and avoiding too much noise from short-term fluctuations. Surely, it can be chosen by trader / analyst.
The Market Health Monitor is more than just a trading tool—it's a comprehensive economic guide. It's designed for traders who value an in-depth understanding of the economic climate. By offering insights into both current conditions and future trends, it encourages traders to navigate the markets with confidence, whether through turbulent times or in periods of growth. This tool doesn't just help you follow the market—it helps you understand it.
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Dark Energy Divergence OscillatorThe Dark Energy Divergence Oscillator (DEDO)
What makes The Universe grow at an accelerating pace?
Dark Energy.
What makes The Economy grow at an accelerating pace?
Debt.
Debt is the Dark Energy of The Economy.
I pronounce DEDO "Deed-oh", but variations are fine with me.
Note: The Pine Script version of DEDO is improved from the original formula, which used a constant all-time high calculation in the normalization factor. This was technically not as accurate for calculating liquidity pressure in historical data because it meant that historical prices were being tested against future liquidity factors. Now using Pine, the functions can be normalized for the bar at the time of calculation, so the liquidity factors are normalized per candle, not across the entire series, which feels like an improvement to me.
Thought Process:
It's all about the liquidity. What I started with is a correlation between major stock indices such as SPX and WRESBAL , a balance sheet metric on FRED
After September 2008, when QE was initiated, many asset valuations started to follow more closely with liquidity factors. This led me to create a function that could combine asset prices and liquidity in WRESBAL , in order to calculate their divergence and chart the signal in TradingView.
The original formula:
First, we don't want "non-QE" data. we only want data for the market affected by QE .
So, find SPX on the day of pre-QE: 1255.08 and subtract that from the 2022 top 4818.62 = 3563.54
With this post-QE SPX range, now you can normalize the price level simply by dividing by the range = ( SPX -1255.08)/3563.54)
Normalization produces values from 0 to 1 so that they can be compared with other normalized figures.
In order to test the 0 to 1 normalized SPX range measure against the liquidity number, WRESBAL , it's the same idea: normalize it using the max as the denominator and you get a 0 to 1 liquidity index:
( WRESBAL /4276000000000)
Subtract one from the other to get the divergence:
(( WRESBAL /4276000000000)-(( SPX -1255.08)/3563.54))*10
x10 to reduce decimal places, but this option is configurable in DEDO's input settings tab.
Positive values indicate there's ample liquidity to hold up price or even create bullish momentum in some cases. Negative values mean price levels are potentially extended beyond what liquidity levels can support.
Note: many viewers of the charts on social media wanted the values to go down in alignment with price moving down, so inverting the chart is what I do with Option + I. I like the fact that negative values represent a deficit in liquidity to hold up price but that's just me.
Now with Pine Script and some help from other liquidity focused accounts on TradingView , I was able to derive a script that includes central bank liquidity and Reverse Repo liquidity drain, all in one algorithm, with adjustable settings.
Central bank assets included in this version:
-JPY (Japan)
-CNY (China)
-UK (British Pound)
-SNB (Swiss National Bank)
-ECB (European Central Bank )
Central Bank assets can be adjusted to an allocation % so that the formula is adjusted for the market cap of the asset.
A handy table in the lower right corner displays useful information about the asset market cap, and percentage it represents in the liquidity pool.
Reverse repo soak is also an optional addition in the Input settings using the RRPONTSYD value from FRED. This value is subtracted from global liquidity used to determine divergence since it is swept away from markets when residing in the Fed's reverse repo facility.
There is an option to draw a line at the Zero bound. This provides a convenience so that the line doesn't keep having to be redrawn on every chart. The normalized equation produces a value that should oscillate around zero, as price/valuation grows past liquidity support, falls under it, and repeats in cycles.
S&P 500 Quandl Data & RatiosTradingView has a little-known integration that allows you to pull in 3rd party data-sets from Nasdaq Data Link, also known as Quandl. Today, I am open-sourcing for the community an indicator that uses the Quandl integration to pull in historical data and ratios on the S&P500. I originally coded this to study macro P/E ratios during peaks and troughs of boom/bust cycles.
The indicator pulls in each of the following datasets, as defined and provided by Quandl. The user can select which datasets to pull in using the indicator settings:
Dividend Yield : S&P 500 dividend yield (12 month dividend per share)/price. Yields following June 2022 (including the current yield) are estimated based on 12 month dividends through June 2022, as reported by S&P. Sources: Standard & Poor's for current S&P 500 Dividend Yield. Robert Shiller and his book Irrational Exuberance for historic S&P 500 Dividend Yields.
Price Earning Ratio : Price to earnings ratio, based on trailing twelve month as reported earnings. Current PE is estimated from latest reported earnings and current market price. Source: Robert Shiller and his book Irrational Exuberance for historic S&P 500 PE Ratio.
CAPE/Shiller PE Ratio : Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500. Price earnings ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio), Shiller PE Ratio, or PE 10 FAQ. Data courtesy of Robert Shiller from his book, Irrational Exuberance.
Earnings Yield : S&P 500 Earnings Yield. Earnings Yield = trailing 12 month earnings divided by index price (or inverse PE) Yields following March, 2022 (including current yield) are estimated based on 12 month earnings through March, 2022 the latest reported by S&P. Source: Standard & Poor's
Price Book Ratio : S&P 500 price to book value ratio. Current price to book ratio is estimated based on current market price and S&P 500 book value as of March, 2022 the latest reported by S&P. Source: Standard & Poor's
Price Sales Ratio : S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio (P/S or Price to Revenue). Current price to sales ratio is estimated based on current market price and 12 month sales ending March, 2022 the latest reported by S&P. Source: Standard & Poor's
Inflation Adjusted SP500 : Inflation adjusted SP500. Other than the current price, all prices are monthly average closing prices. Sources: Standard & Poor's Robert Shiller and his book Irrational Exuberance for historic S&P 500 prices, and historic CPIs.
Revenue Per Share : Trailing twelve month S&P 500 Sales Per Share (S&P 500 Revenue Per Share) non-inflation adjusted current dollars. Source: Standard & Poor's
Earnings Per Share : S&P 500 Earnings Per Share. 12-month real earnings per share inflation adjusted, constant August, 2022 dollars. Sources: Standard & Poor's for current S&P 500 Earnings. Robert Shiller and his book Irrational Exuberance for historic S&P 500 Earnings.
Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
ln(close/20 sma) adjusted for time (BTC)(This indicator was designed for the BTC index chart)
Designed for Bitcoin. Plots the log of the close/20W SMA with a linear offset m*t, where m is the gradient I've chosen and t is the candle index. Anything above 1 is a mania phase/market cycle top. If it peaks around 0.92 and rolls over, it could be a local/market cycle top.
This will obviously not work at all in the long term as Bitcoin will not continue following the trend line on the log plot (you can even see it start to deviate in the Jan-Feb 2021 peaks where the indicator went to 1.15).
It identifies the 2011, 2013 (both of them), 2017 tops as being just above 1. It also identifies the 2019 local peak and 2021 market cycle top at ~0.94.
Feel free to change the gradient or even add a function to curve the straight line eventually. I made this for fun, feel free to use it as you wish.
Fair Value Trend Model [SiDec]ABSTRACT
This pine script introduces the Fair Value Trend Model, an on-chart indicator for TradingView that constructs a continuously updating "fair-value" estimate of an asset's price via a logarithmic regression on historical data. Specifically, this model has been applied to Bitcoin (BTC) to fully grasp its fair value in the cryptocurrency market. Symmetric channel bands, defined by fixed percentage offsets around this central fair-value curve, provide a visual band within which normal price fluctuations may occur. Additionally, a short-term projection extends both the fair-value trend and its channel bands forward by a user-specified number of bars.
INTRODUCTION
Technical analysts frequently seek to identify an underlying equilibrium or "fair value" about which prices oscillate. Traditional approaches-moving averages, linear regressions in price-time space, or midlines-capture linear trends but often misrepresent the exponential or power-law growth patterns observable in many financial markets. The Fair Value Trend Model addresses this by performing an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression in log-space, fitting ln(Price) against ln(Days since inception). In practice, the primary application has been to Bitcoin, aiming to fully capture Bitcoin's underlying value dynamics.
The result is a curved trend line in regular (price-time) coordinates, reflecting Bitcoin's long-term compounding characteristics. Surrounding this fair-value curve, symmetric bands at user-specified percentage deviations serve as dynamic support and resistance levels. A simple linear projection extends both the central fair-value and its bands into the immediate future, providing traders with a heuristic for short-term trend continuation.
This exposition details:
Data transformation: converting bar timestamps into days since first bar, then applying natural logarithms to both time and price.
Regression mechanics: incremental (or rolling-window) accumulation of sums to compute the log-space fit parameters.
Fair-value reconstruction: exponentiation of the regression output to yield a price-space estimate.
Channel-band definition: establishing ±X% offsets around the fair-value curve and rendering them visually.
Forecasting methodology: projecting both the fair-value trend and channel bands by extrapolating the most recent incremental change in price-space.
Interpretation: how traders can leverage this model for trend identification, mean-reversion setups, and breakout analysis, particularly in Bitcoin trading.
Analysing the macro cycle on Bitcoin's monthly timeframe illustrates how the fair-value curve aligns with multi-year structural turning points.
DATA TRANSFORMATION AND NOTATION
1. Timestamp Baseline (t0)
Let t0 = timestamp of the very first bar on the chart (in milliseconds). Each subsequent bar has a timestamp ti, where ti ≥ t0.
2. Days Since Inception (d(t))
Define the “days since first bar” as
d(t) = max(1, (t − t0) / 86400000.0)
Here, 86400000.0 represents the number of milliseconds in one day (1,000 ms × 60 seconds × 60 minutes × 24 hours). The lower bound of 1 ensures that we never compute ln(0).
3. Logarithmic Coordinates:
Given the bar’s closing price P(t), define:
xi = ln( d(ti) )
yi = ln( P(ti) )
Thus, each data point is transformed to (xi, yi) in log‐space.
REGRESSION FORMULATION
We assume a log‐linear relationship:
yi = a + b·xi + εi
where εi is the residual error at bar i. Ordinary least squares (OLS) fitting minimizes the sum of squared residuals over N data points. Define the following accumulated sums:
Sx = Σ for i = 1 to N
Sy = Σ for i = 1 to N
Sxy = Σ for i = 1 to N
Sx2 = Σ for i = 1 to N
N = number of data points
The OLS estimates for b (slope) and a (intercept) are:
b = ( N·Sxy − Sx·Sy ) / ( N·Sx2 − (Sx)^2 )
a = ( Sy − b·Sx ) / N
All‐Time Versus Rolling‐Window Mode:
All-Time Mode:
Each new bar increments N by 1.
Update Sx ← Sx + xN, Sy ← Sy + yN, Sxy ← Sxy + xN·yN, Sx2 ← Sx2 + xN^2.
Recompute a and b using the formulas above on the entire dataset.
Rolling-Window Mode:
Fix a window length W. Maintain two arrays holding the most recent W values of {xi} and {yi}.
On each new bar N:
Append (xN, yN) to the arrays; add xN, yN, xN·yN, xN^2 to the sums Sx, Sy, Sxy, Sx2.
If the arrays’ length exceeds W, remove the oldest point (xN−W, yN−W) and subtract its contributions from the sums.
Update N_roll = min(N, W).
Compute b and a using N_roll, Sx, Sy, Sxy, Sx2 as above.
This incremental approach requires only O(1) operations per bar instead of recomputing sums from scratch, making it computationally efficient for long time series.
FAIR‐VALUE RECONSTRUCTION
Once coefficients (a, b) are obtained, the regressed log‐price at time t is:
ŷ(t) = a + b·ln( d(t) )
Mapping back to price space yields the “fair‐value”:
F(t) = exp( ŷ(t) )
= exp( a + b·ln( d(t) ) )
= exp(a) · ^b
In other words, F(t) is a power‐law function of “days since inception,” with exponent b and scale factor C = exp(a). Special cases:
If b = 1, F(t) = C · d(t), which is an exponential function in original time.
If b > 1, the fair‐value grows super‐linearly (accelerating compounding).
If 0 < b < 1, it grows sub‐linearly.
If b < 0, the fair‐value declines over time.
CHANNEL‐BAND DEFINITION
To visualise a “normal” range around the fair‐value curve F(t), we define two channel bands at fixed percentage offsets:
1. Upper Channel Band
U(t) = F(t) · (1 + α_upper)
where α_upper = (Channel Band Upper %) / 100.
2. Lower Channel Band
L(t) = F(t) · (1 − α_lower)
where α_lower = (Channel Band Lower %) / 100.
For example, default values of 50% imply α_upper = α_lower = 0.50, so:
U(t) = 1.50 · F(t)
L(t) = 0.50 · F(t)
When “Show FV Channel Bands” is enabled, both U(t) and L(t) are plotted in a neutral grey, and a semi‐transparent fill is drawn between them to emphasise the channel region.
SHORT‐TERM FORECAST PROJECTION
To extend both the fair‐value and its channel bands M bars into the future, the model uses a simple constant‐increment extrapolation in price space. The procedure is:
1. Compute Recent Increments
Let
F_prev = F( t_{N−1} )
F_curr = F( t_N )
Then define the per‐bar change in fair‐value:
ΔF = F_curr − F_prev
Similarly, for channel bands:
U_prev = U( t_{N−1} ), U_curr = U( t_N ), ΔU = U_curr − U_prev
L_prev = L( t_{N−1} ), L_curr = L( t_N ), ΔL = L_curr − L_prev
2. Forecasted Values After M Bars
Assuming the same per‐bar increments continue:
F_future = F_curr + M · ΔF
U_future = U_curr + M · ΔU
L_future = L_curr + M · ΔL
These forecasted values produce dashed lines on the chart:
A dashed segment from (bar_N, F_curr) to (bar_{N+M}, F_future).
Dashed segments from (bar_N, U_curr) to (bar_{N+M}, U_future), and from (bar_N, L_curr) to (bar_{N+M}, L_future).
Forecasted channel bands are rendered in a subdued grey to distinguish them from the current solid bands. Because this method does not re‐estimate regression coefficients for future t > t_N, it serves as a quick visual heuristic of trend continuation rather than a precise statistical forecast.
MATHEMATICAL SUMMARY
Summarising all key formulas:
1. Days Since Inception
d(t_i) = max( 1, ( t_i − t0 ) / 86400000.0 )
x_i = ln( d(t_i) )
y_i = ln( P(t_i) )
2. Regression Summations (for i = 1..N)
Sx = Σ
Sy = Σ
Sxy = Σ
Sx2 = Σ
N = number of data points (or N_roll if using rolling‐window)
3. OLS Estimator
b = ( N · Sxy − Sx · Sy ) / ( N · Sx2 − (Sx)^2 )
a = ( Sy − b · Sx ) / N
4. Fair‐Value Computation
ŷ(t) = a + b · ln( d(t) )
F(t) = exp( ŷ(t) ) = exp(a) · ^b
5. Channel Bands
U(t) = F(t) · (1 + α_upper)
L(t) = F(t) · (1 − α_lower)
with α_upper = (Channel Band Upper %) / 100, α_lower = (Channel Band Lower %) / 100.
6. Forecast Projection
ΔF = F_curr − F_prev
F_future = F_curr + M · ΔF
ΔU = U_curr − U_prev
U_future = U_curr + M · ΔU
ΔL = L_curr − L_prev
L_future = L_curr + M · ΔL
IMPLEMENTATION CONSIDERATIONS
1. Time Precision
Timestamps are recorded in milliseconds. Dividing by 86400000.0 yields days with fractional precision.
For the very first bar, d(t) = 1 ensures x = ln(1) = 0, avoiding an undefined logarithm.
2. Incremental Versus Sliding Summation
All‐Time Mode: Uses persistent scalar variables (Sx, Sy, Sxy, Sx2, N). On each new bar, add the latest x and y contributions to the sums.
Rolling‐Window Mode: Employs fixed‐length arrays for {x_i} and {y_i}. On each bar, append (x_N, y_N) and update sums; if array length exceeds W, remove the oldest element and subtract its contribution from the sums. This maintains exact sums over the most recent W data points without recomputing from scratch.
3. Numerical Robustness
If the denominator N·Sx2 − (Sx)^2 equals zero (e.g., all x_i identical, as when only one day has passed), then set b = 0 and a = Sy / N. This produces a constant fair‐value F(t) = exp(a).
Enforcing d(t) ≥ 1 avoids attempts to compute ln(0).
4. Plotting Strategy
The fair‐value line F(t) is plotted on each new bar. Its color depends on whether the current price P(t) is above or below F(t): a “bullish” color (e.g., green) when P(t) ≥ F(t), and a “bearish” color (e.g., red) when P(t) < F(t).
The channel bands U(t) and L(t) are plotted in a neutral grey when enabled; otherwise they are set to “not available” (no plot).
A semi‐transparent fill is drawn between U(t) and L(t). Because the fill function is executed at global scope, it is automatically suppressed if either U(t) or L(t) is not plotted (na).
5. Forecast Line Management
Each projection line (for F, U, and L) is created via a persistent line object. On successive bars, the code updates the endpoints of the same line rather than creating a new one each time, preserving chart clarity.
If forecasting is disabled, any existing projection lines are deleted to avoid cluttering the chart.
INTERPRETATION AND APPLICATIONS
1. Trend Identification
The fair‐value curve F(t) represents the best‐fit long‐term trend under the assumption that ln(Price) scales linearly with ln(Days since inception). By capturing power‐law or exponential patterns, it can more accurately reflect underlying compounding behavior than simple linear regressions.
When actual price P(t) lies above U(t), it may be considered “overextended” relative to its long‐term trend; when price falls below L(t), it may be deemed “oversold.” These conditions can signal potential mean‐reversion or breakout opportunities.
2. Mean‐Reversion and Breakout Signals
If price re‐enters the channel after touching or slightly breaching L(t), some traders interpret this as a mean‐reversion bounce and consider initiating a long position.
Conversely, a sustained move above U(t) can indicate strong upward momentum and a possible bullish breakout. Traders often seek confirmation (e.g., price remaining above U(t) for multiple bars, rising volume, or corroborating momentum indicators) before acting.
3. Rolling Versus All‐Time Usage
All‐Time Mode: Captures the entire dataset since inception, focusing on structural, long‐term trends. It is less sensitive to short‐term noise or volatility spikes.
Rolling‐Window Mode: Restricts the regression to the most recent W bars, making the fair‐value curve more responsive to changing market regimes, sudden volatility expansions, or fundamental shifts. Traders who wish to align the model with local behaviour often choose W so that it approximates a market cycle length (e.g., 100–200 bars on a daily chart).
4. Channel Percentage Selection
A wider band (e.g., ±50 %) accommodates larger price swings, reducing the frequency of breaches but potentially delaying actionable signals.
A narrower band (e.g., ±10 %) yields more frequent “overbought/oversold” alerts but may produce more false signals during normal volatility. It is advisable to calibrate the channel width to the asset’s historical volatility regime.
5. Forecast Cautions
The short‐term projection assumes that the last single‐bar increment ΔF remains constant for M bars. In reality, trend acceleration or deceleration can occur, rendering the linear forecast inaccurate.
As such, the forecast serves as a visual guide rather than a statistically rigorous prediction. It is best used in conjunction with other momentum, volume, or volatility indicators to confirm trend continuation or reversal.
LIMITATIONS AND CONSIDERATIONS
1. Power‐Law Assumption
By fitting ln(P) against ln(d), the model posits that P(t) ≈ C · ^b. Real markets may deviate from a pure power‐law, especially around significant news events or structural regime changes. Temporary misalignment can occur.
2. Fixed Channel Width
Markets exhibit heteroskedasticity: volatility can expand or contract unpredictably. A static ±X % band does not adapt to changing volatility. During high‐volatility periods, a fixed ±50 % may prove too narrow and be breached frequently; in unusually calm periods, it may be excessively broad, masking meaningful variations.
3. Endpoint Sensitivity
Regression‐based indicators often display greater curvature near the most recent data, especially under rolling‐window mode. This can create sudden “jumps” in F(t) when new bars arrive, potentially confusing users who expect smoother behaviour.
4. Forecast Simplification
The projection does not re‐estimate regression slope b for future times. It only extends the most recent single‐bar change. Consequently, it should be regarded as an indicative extension rather than a precise forecast.
PRACTICAL IMPLEMENTATION ON TRADINGVIEW
1 Adding the Indicator
In TradingView’s “Indicators” dialog, search for Fair Value Trend Model or visit my profile, under "scripts" add it to your chart.
Add it to any chart (e.g., BTCUSD, AAPL, EURUSD) to see real‐time computation.
2. Configuring Inputs
Show Forecast Line: Toggle on or off the dashed projection of the fair‐value.
Forecast Bars: Choose M, the number of bars to extend into the future (default is often 30).
Forecast Line Colour: Select a high‐contrast colour (e.g., yellow).
Bullish FV Colour / Bearish FV Colour: Define the colour of the fair‐value line when price is above (e.g., green) or below it (e.g., red).
Show FV Channel Bands: Enable to display the grey channel bands around the fair‐value.
Channel Band Upper % / Channel Band Lower %: Set α_upper and α_lower as desired (defaults of 50 % create a ±50 % envelope).
Use Rolling Window?: Choose whether to restrict the regression to recent data.
Window Bars: If rolling mode is enabled, designate W, the number of bars to include.
3. Visual Output
The central curve F(t) appears on the price chart, coloured green when P(t) ≥ F(t) and red when P(t) < F(t).
If channel bands are enabled, the chart shows two grey lines U(t) and L(t) and a subtle shading between them.
If forecasting is active, dashed extensions of F(t), U(t), and L(t) appear, projecting forward by M bars in neutral hues.
CONCLUSION
The Fair Value Trend Model furnishes traders with a mathematically principled estimate of an asset’s equilibrium price curve by fitting a log‐linear regression to historical data. Its channel bands delineate a normal corridor of fluctuation based on fixed percentage offsets, while an optional short‐term projection offers a visual approximation of trend continuation.
By operating in log‐space, the model effectively captures exponential or power‐law growth patterns that linear methods overlook. Rolling‐window capability enables responsiveness to regime shifts, whereas all‐time mode highlights broader structural trends. Nonetheless, users should remain mindful of the model’s assumptions—particularly the power‐law form and fixed band percentages—and employ the forecast projection as a supplemental guide rather than a standalone predictor.
When combined with complementary indicators (e.g., volatility measures, momentum oscillators, volume analysis) and robust risk management, the Fair Value Trend Model can enhance market timing, mean‐reversion identification, and breakout detection across diverse trading environments.
REFERENCES
Draper, N. R., & Smith, H. (1998). Applied Regression Analysis (3rd ed.). Wiley.
Tsay, R. S. (2014). Introductory Time Series with R (2nd ed.). Springer.
Hull, J. C. (2017). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives (10th ed.). Pearson.
These references provide background on regression, time-series analysis, and financial modeling.
Modern Economic Eras DashboardOverview
This script provides a historical macroeconomic visualization of U.S. markets, highlighting long-term structural "eras" such as the Bretton Woods period, the inflationary 1970s, and the post-2020 "Age of Disorder." It overlays key economic indicators sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) and displays notable market crashes, all in a clean and rescaled format for easy comparison.
Data Sources & Indicators
All data is loaded monthly from official FRED series and rescaled to improve readability:
🔵 Real GDP (FRED:GDP): Total output of the U.S. economy.
🔴 Inflation Index (FRED:CPIAUCSL): Consumer price index as a proxy for inflation.
⚪ Debt to GDP (FRED:GFDGDPA188S): Federal debt as % of GDP.
🟣 Labor Force Participation (FRED:CIVPART): % of population in the labor force.
🟠 Oil Prices (FRED:DCOILWTICO): Monthly WTI crude oil prices.
🟡 10Y Real Yield (FRED:DFII10): Inflation-adjusted yield on 10-year Treasuries.
🔵 Symbol Price: Optionally overlays the charted asset’s price, rescaled.
Historical Crashes
The dashboard highlights 10 major U.S. market crashes, including 1929, 2000, and 2008, with labeled time spans for quick context.
Era Classification
Six macroeconomic eras based on Deutsche Bank’s Long-Term Asset Return Study (2020) are shaded with background color. Each era reflects dominant economic regimes—globalization, wars, monetary systems, inflationary cycles, and current geopolitical disorder.
Best Use Cases
✅ Long-term macro investors studying structural market behavior
✅ Educators and analysts explaining economic transitions
✅ Portfolio managers aligning strategy with macroeconomic phases
✅ Traders using history for cycle timing and risk assessment
Technical Notes
Designed for monthly timeframe, though it works on weekly.
Uses close price and standard request.security calls for consistency.
Max labels/lines configured for broader history (from 1860s to present).
All plotted series are rescaled manually for better visibility.
Originality
This indicator is original and not derived from built-in or boilerplate code. It combines multiple economic dimensions and market history into one interactive chart, helping users frame today's markets in a broader structural context.
The Mayan CalendarThis indicator displays the current date in the Mayan Calendar, based on real-time UTC time. It calculates and presents:
🌀 Long Count (Baktun.Katun.Tun.Uinal.Kin) – A linear count of days since the Mayan epoch (August 11, 3114 BCE).
🔮 Tzolk'in Date – A 260-day sacred cycle combining a number (1–13) and one of 20 day names (e.g., 4 Ajaw).
🌾 Haab' Date – A 365-day civil cycle divided into 18 months of 20 days + 5 "nameless" days (Wayeb').
The calculations follow Smithsonian standards and align with the Maya Calendar Converter from the National Museum of the American Indian:
👉 maya.nmai.si.edu
The results are shown in a table overlay on your chart's top-right corner. This indicator is great for symbolic traders, astro enthusiasts, or anyone interested in ancient timekeeping systems woven into financial timeframes. Enjoy, time travelers! ⌛
Log Regression OscillatorThe Log Regression Oscillator transforms the logarithmic regression curves into an easy-to-interpret oscillator that displays potential cycle tops/bottoms.
🔶 USAGE
Calculating the logarithmic regression of long-term swings can help show future tops/bottoms. The relationship between previous swing points is calculated and projected further. The calculated levels are directly associated with swing points, which means every swing point will change the calculation. Importantly, all levels will be updated through all bars when a new swing is detected.
The "Log Regression Oscillator" transforms the calculated levels, where the top level is regarded as 100 and the bottom level as 0. The price values are displayed in between and calculated as a ratio between the top and bottom, resulting in a clear view of where the price is situated.
The main picture contains the Logarithmic Regression Alternative on the chart to compare with this published script.
Included are the levels 30 and 70. In the example of Bitcoin, previous cycles showed a similar pattern: the bullish parabolic was halfway when the oscillator passed the 30-level, and the top was very near when passing the 70-level.
🔹 Proactive
A "Proactive" option is included, which ensures immediate calculations of tentative unconfirmed swings.
Instead of waiting 300 bars for confirmation, the "Proactive" mode will display a gray-white dot (not confirmed swing) and add the unconfirmed Swing value to the calculation.
The above example shows that the "Calculated Values" of the potential future top and bottom are adjusted, including the provisional swing.
When the swing is confirmed, the calculations are again adjusted, showing a red dot (confirmed top swing) or a green dot (confirmed bottom swing).
🔹 Dashboard
When less than two swings are available (top/bottom), this will be shown in the dashboard.
The user can lower the "Threshold" value or switch to a lower timeframe.
🔹 Notes
Logarithmic regression is typically used to model situations where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time, meaning some symbols/tickers will fit better than others.
Since the logarithmic regression depends on swing values, each new value will change the calculation. A well-fitted model could not fit anymore in the future.
Users have to check the validity of swings; for example, if the direction of swings is downwards, then the dataset is not fitted for logarithmic regression.
In the example above, the "Threshold" is lowered. However, the calculated levels are unreliable due to the swings, which do not fit the model well.
Here, the combination of downward bottom swings and price accelerates slower at first and faster recently, resulting in a non-fit for the logarithmic regression model.
Note the price value (white line) is bound to a limit of 150 (upwards) and -150 (down)
In short, logarithmic regression is best used when there are enough tops/bottoms, and all tops are around 100, and all bottoms around 0.
Also, note that this indicator has been developed for a daily (or higher) timeframe chart.
🔶 DETAILS
In mathematics, the dot product or scalar product is an algebraic operation that takes two equal-length sequences of numbers (arrays) and returns a single number, the sum of the products of the corresponding entries of the two sequences of numbers.
The usual way is to loop through both arrays and sum the products.
In this case, the two arrays are transformed into a matrix, wherein in one matrix, a single column is filled with the first array values, and in the second matrix, a single row is filled with the second array values.
After this, the function matrix.mult() returns a new matrix resulting from the product between the matrices m1 and m2.
Then, the matrix.eigenvalues() function transforms this matrix into an array, where the array.sum() function finally returns the sum of the array's elements, which is the dot product.
dot(x, y)=>
if x.size() > 1 and y.size() > 1
m1 = matrix.new()
m2 = matrix.new()
m1.add_col(m1.columns(), y)
m2.add_row(m2.rows (), x)
m1.mult (m2)
.eigenvalues()
.sum()
🔶 SETTINGS
Threshold: Period used for the swing detection, with higher values returning longer-term Swing Levels.
Proactive: Tentative Swings are included with this setting enabled.
Style: Color Settings
Dashboard: Toggle, "Location" and "Text Size"
Logarithmic Regression AlternativeLogarithmic regression is typically used to model situations where growth or decay accelerates rapidly at first and then slows over time. Bitcoin is a good example.
𝑦 = 𝑎 + 𝑏 * ln(𝑥)
With this logarithmic regression (log reg) formula 𝑦 (price) is calculated with constants 𝑎 and 𝑏, where 𝑥 is the bar_index .
Instead of using the sum of log x/y values, together with the dot product of log x/y and the sum of the square of log x-values, to calculate a and b, I wanted to see if it was possible to calculate a and b differently.
In this script, the log reg is calculated with several different assumed a & b values, after which the log reg level is compared to each Swing. The log reg, where all swings on average are closest to the level, produces the final 𝑎 & 𝑏 values used to display the levels.
🔶 USAGE
The script shows the calculated logarithmic regression value from historical swings, provided there are enough swings, the price pattern fits the log reg model, and previous swings are close to the calculated Top/Bottom levels.
When the price approaches one of the calculated Top or Bottom levels, these levels could act as potential cycle Top or Bottom.
Since the logarithmic regression depends on swing values, each new value will change the calculation. A well-fitted model could not fit anymore in the future.
Swings are based on Weekly bars. A Top Swing, for example, with Swing setting 30, is the highest value in 60 weeks. Thirty bars at the left and right of the Swing will be lower than the Top Swing. This means that a confirmation is triggered 30 weeks after the Swing. The period will be automatically multiplied by 7 on the daily chart, where 30 becomes 210 bars.
Please note that the goal of this script is not to show swings rapidly; it is meant to show the potential next cycle's Top/Bottom levels.
🔹 Multiple Levels
The script includes the option to display 3 Top/Bottom levels, which uses different values for the swing calculations.
Top: 'high', 'maximum open/close' or 'close'
Bottom: 'low', 'minimum open/close' or 'close'
These levels can be adjusted up/down with a percentage.
Lastly, an "Average" is included for each set, which will only be visible when "AVG" is enabled, together with both Top and Bottom levels.
🔹 Notes
Users have to check the validity of swings; the above example only uses 1 Top Swing for its calculations, making the Top level unreliable.
Here, 1 of the Bottom Swings is pretty far from the bottom level, changing the swing settings can give a more reliable bottom level where all swings are close to that level.
Note the display was set at "Logarithmic", it can just as well be shown as "Regular"
In the example below, the price evolution does not fit the logarithmic regression model, where growth should accelerate rapidly at first and then slows over time.
Please note that this script can only be used on a daily timeframe or higher; using it at a lower timeframe will show a warning. Also, it doesn't work with bar-replay.
🔶 DETAILS
The code gathers data from historical swings. At the last bar, all swings are calculated with different a and b values. The a and b values which results in the smallest difference between all swings and Top/Bottom levels become the final a and b values.
The ranges of a and b are between -20.000 to +20.000, which means a and b will have the values -20.000, -19.999, -19.998, -19.997, -19.996, ... -> +20.000.
As you can imagine, the number of calculations is enormous. Therefore, the calculation is split into parts, first very roughly and then very fine.
The first calculations are done between -20 and +20 (-20, -19, -18, ...), resulting in, for example, 4.
The next set of calculations is performed only around the previous result, in this case between 3 (4-1) and 5 (4+1), resulting in, for example, 3.9. The next set goes even more in detail, for example, between 3.8 (3.9-0.1) and 4.0 (3.9 + 0.1), and so on.
1) -20 -> +20 , then loop with step 1 (result (example): 4 )
2) 4 - 1 -> 4 +1 , then loop with step 0.1 (result (example): 3.9 )
3) 3.9 - 0.1 -> 3.9 +0.1 , then loop with step 0.01 (result (example): 3.93 )
4) 3.93 - 0.01 -> 3.93 +0.01, then loop with step 0.001 (result (example): 3.928)
This ensures complicated calculations with less effort.
These calculations are done at the last bar, where the levels are displayed, which means you can see different results when a new swing is found.
Also, note that this indicator has been developed for a daily (or higher) timeframe chart.
🔶 SETTINGS
Three sets
High/Low
• color setting
• Swing Length settings for 'High' & 'Low'
• % adjustment for 'High' & 'Low'
• AVG: shows average (when both 'High' and 'Low' are enabled)
Max/Min (maximum open/close, minimum open/close)
• color setting
• Swing Length settings for 'Max' & 'Min'
• % adjustment for 'Max' & 'Min'
• AVG: shows average (when both 'Max' and 'Min' are enabled)
Close H/Close L (close Top/Bottom level)
• color setting
• Swing Length settings for 'Close H' & 'Close L'
• % adjustment for 'Close H' & 'Close L'
• AVG: shows average (when both 'Close H' and 'Close L' are enabled)
Show Dashboard, including Top/Bottom levels of the desired source and calculated a and b values.
Show Swings + Dot size
Intellect_city - Halvings Bitcoin CycleWhat is halving?
The halving timer shows when the next Bitcoin halving will occur, as well as the dates of past halvings. This event occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is approximately every 4 years. Halving reduces the emission reward by half. The original Bitcoin reward was 50 BTC per block found.
Why is halving necessary?
Halving allows you to maintain an algorithmically specified emission level. Anyone can verify that no more than 21 million bitcoins can be issued using this algorithm. Moreover, everyone can see how much was issued earlier, at what speed the emission is happening now, and how many bitcoins remain to be mined in the future. Even a sharp increase or decrease in mining capacity will not significantly affect this process. In this case, during the next difficulty recalculation, which occurs every 2014 blocks, the mining difficulty will be recalculated so that blocks are still found approximately once every ten minutes.
How does halving work in Bitcoin blocks?
The miner who collects the block adds a so-called coinbase transaction. This transaction has no entry, only exit with the receipt of emission coins to your address. If the miner's block wins, then the entire network will consider these coins to have been obtained through legitimate means. The maximum reward size is determined by the algorithm; the miner can specify the maximum reward size for the current period or less. If he puts the reward higher than possible, the network will reject such a block and the miner will not receive anything. After each halving, miners have to halve the reward they assign to themselves, otherwise their blocks will be rejected and will not make it to the main branch of the blockchain.
The impact of halving on the price of Bitcoin
It is believed that with constant demand, a halving of supply should double the value of the asset. In practice, the market knows when the halving will occur and prepares for this event in advance. Typically, the Bitcoin rate begins to rise about six months before the halving, and during the halving itself it does not change much. On average for past periods, the upper peak of the rate can be observed more than a year after the halving. It is almost impossible to predict future periods because, in addition to the reduction in emissions, many other factors influence the exchange rate. For example, major hacks or bankruptcies of crypto companies, the situation on the stock market, manipulation of “whales,” or changes in legislative regulation.
---------------------------------------------
Table - Past and future Bitcoin halvings:
---------------------------------------------
Date: Number of blocks: Award:
0 - 03-01-2009 - 0 block - 50 BTC
1 - 28-11-2012 - 210000 block - 25 BTC
2 - 09-07-2016 - 420000 block - 12.5 BTC
3 - 11-05-2020 - 630000 block - 6.25 BTC
4 - 20-04-2024 - 840000 block - 3.125 BTC
5 - 24-03-2028 - 1050000 block - 1.5625 BTC
6 - 26-02-2032 - 1260000 block - 0.78125 BTC
7 - 30-01-2036 - 1470000 block - 0.390625 BTC
8 - 03-01-2040 - 1680000 block - 0.1953125 BTC
9 - 07-12-2043 - 1890000 block - 0.09765625 BTC
10 - 10-11-2047 - 2100000 block - 0.04882813 BTC
11 - 14-10-2051 - 2310000 block - 0.02441406 BTC
12 - 17-09-2055 - 2520000 block - 0.01220703 BTC
13 - 21-08-2059 - 2730000 block - 0.00610352 BTC
14 - 25-07-2063 - 2940000 block - 0.00305176 BTC
15 - 28-06-2067 - 3150000 block - 0.00152588 BTC
16 - 01-06-2071 - 3360000 block - 0.00076294 BTC
17 - 05-05-2075 - 3570000 block - 0.00038147 BTC
18 - 08-04-2079 - 3780000 block - 0.00019073 BTC
19 - 12-03-2083 - 3990000 block - 0.00009537 BTC
20 - 13-02-2087 - 4200000 block - 0.00004768 BTC
21 - 17-01-2091 - 4410000 block - 0.00002384 BTC
22 - 21-12-2094 - 4620000 block - 0.00001192 BTC
23 - 24-11-2098 - 4830000 block - 0.00000596 BTC
24 - 29-10-2102 - 5040000 block - 0.00000298 BTC
25 - 02-10-2106 - 5250000 block - 0.00000149 BTC
26 - 05-09-2110 - 5460000 block - 0.00000075 BTC
27 - 09-08-2114 - 5670000 block - 0.00000037 BTC
28 - 13-07-2118 - 5880000 block - 0.00000019 BTC
29 - 16-06-2122 - 6090000 block - 0.00000009 BTC
30 - 20-05-2126 - 6300000 block - 0.00000005 BTC
31 - 23-04-2130 - 6510000 block - 0.00000002 BTC
32 - 27-03-2134 - 6720000 block - 0.00000001 BTC
Gann Dates█ INTRODUCTION
This indicator is very easy to understand and simple to use. It indicates important Gann dates in the future based on pivots (highs and lows) or key dates from the past.
According to W.D. Gann the year can be seen as a cycle or one full circle with 365 degrees. The circle can be symmetrically divided into equal sections at angles of 30, 45, 60, etc. The start of the cycle can be a significant key date or a pivot in the chart. Hence there are dates in the calendar, that fall on important angles. According to W.D. Gann those are important dates to watch for significant price movement in either direction.
In combination with other tools, this indicator can help you to time the market and make better risk-on/off decisions.
█ HOW TO USE
ibb.co
You need to adjust the settings depending on the chart. The following parameters can be adjusted:
Gann angles: The script will plot dates that are distant from pivots by a multiple of this.
Gann dates per pivot: The amount of dates that will show.
Search window size for pivots: This is how the local highs and lows are detected in the chart. The smaller this number the more local highs and lows will show.
You also have the option to hide dates derived from lows/highs, or show dates based on two custom key dates.
█ EXAMPLES
The following chart shows the price of Gold in USD with multiples of 20 days from local pivots.
The following chart shows the price of Bitcoin in USD with multiples of 30 weeks from two custom dates (in this case the low in late 2018 and the low in late 2022).
90cycle @joshuuu90 minute cycle is a concept about certain time windows of the day.
This indicator has two different options. One uses the 90 minute cycle times mentioned by traderdaye, the other uses the cls operational times split up into 90 minutes session.
e.g. we can often see a fake move happening in the 90 minute window between 2.30am and 4am ny time.
The indicator draws vertical lines at the start/end of each session and the user is able to only display certain sessions (asia, london, new york am and pm)
For the traderdayes option, the indicator also counts the windows from 1 to 4 and calls them q1,q2,q3,q4 (q-quarter)
⚠️ Open Source ⚠️
Coders and TV users are authorized to copy this code base, but a paid distribution is prohibited. A mention to the original author is expected, and appreciated.
⚠️ Terms and Conditions ⚠️
This financial tool is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Users assume responsibility for decisions made based on the tool's information. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. By using this tool, users agree to these terms.
Range Identifier*Re-upload as previous attempt was removed.
An attempt to create a half decent identifier of when the markets are ranging and in a state of choppiness and mean reversion - as opposed to in trending trade conditions.
It's super simple logic just working on some basic price action and market structure operating on higher time frames.
It uses the Donchian Channels but with hlc3 data as opposed to high/lows - and identifies periods in which the baseline is static, or when the channel upper & lower are contracting.
This combination identifies non trending price action with decreasing volatility, which tends to indicate a lot of upcoming chop and ranging/sideways action; especially when intraday trading and applied on the daily timeframe.
The filter increasing results in a decrease of areas identified as choppy by extending the required period of a sideways static basis, I've found values of 2 or 3 to be a nice sweetspot!
Overall should be pretty intuitive to use, when the background changes just consider altering your trading and investing approach. This was created as I've not really seen anything on here that functions quite the same.
I decided to not include the Donchian upper/lower/basis as I found that can often lead to decision bias and being influenced by where these lines are situated causing you to guess on future direction.
It's obviously never going to be perfect, but a nice and unbiased way to quickly check where we may be in a cycle; let me know if there are any issues/questions and please enjoy!
inverse_fisher_transform_adaptive_stochastic█ Description
The indicator is the implementation of inverse fisher transform an indicator transform of the adaptive stochastic (dominant cycle), as in the Cycle Analytics for Trader pg. 198 (John F. Ehlers). Indicator transformation in brief means reshaping the indicator to be more interpretable. The inverse fisher transform is achieved by compressing values near the extremes many extraneous and irrelevant wiggles are removed from the indicator, as cited.
█ Inverse Fisher Transform
input = 2*(adaptive_stoc - .5)
output = e(2*k*input) -1 / e(2*k*input) +1
█ Feature:
iFish i.e. output value
trigger i.e. previous 1 bar of iFish * 0.90
if iFish crosses above the trigger, consider a buy indicated with the green line
while, iFish crosses below the trigger, consider a sell indicate by the red line
in addition iFish needs to be greater than the previous iFish
timing marketIntraday time cycle . it is valid for nifty and banknifty .just add this on daily basis . ignore previous day data
Moon Phases Strategy with CCI EXTRIME TPHELLO TO ALL ASTROLGY TRADING LOVERS
***im not a native english speaker and im not going to google translte it so soory for mastakes ****
this is an amzing script of moon cycle strategy
for long -
price need to be above MA
it will buy in full moon and will sell at new moon
i added an extrime CCI TP that if cci is over bought above 200 line it will close position- it cant be edited out so enjoy it.
for short-
price need to be below MA
it will short when new moon and buy back when fullmoon
i added an extrime CCI tp that if cci is oversold under -200 line it will close position - it cant be edited out so enjoy it.
just edit the new moon Reference date by your UTC TIME!!! ׂ( GOOGLE 'NEW MOON DATE')
לכל אוהבי האסטרולוגיה ומסחר בכוכבים
סקריפט פשוט מעולה!
ללונג- האסטרטגיה קונה כאשר המחיר מעל הממוצע ויש ירח מלא-היא מוכרת כאשר יש ירח חדש או כאשרס.ס.י חוצה את קו ה200
בשורט היא עושה ההפך ומוכרת כאשר יש ירח חדש והמחיר מתחת לממוצע-היא סוגרת את הפוזציה כאשר יש ירח מלא או כאשר ס.ס.י חוצה מטה את רמת המינוס 200
אנא ערכו את התאריך רפרנס לירח לפי אזור הזמן שלכם חפשו בגוגל ''תאריך ירח חדש'.
BACKTEST RETURNS SOOOOOO GOOOOD !
הבאק טסטים חוזרים מושלמים
trade with the stars and rip markets
BTC Pi MultipleThe Pi Multiple is a function of 350 and 111-day moving average. When both intersect and the 111-day MA crosses above, it has historically coincided with a cycle top with a 3-day margin.
With the Pi Multiple, this intersection is visible when the line crosses zero upwards.
The indicator is called the Pi Multiple because 350/111 is close to Pi. It is based on the Pi Cycle Top Indicator developed by Philip Swift and has been modified for better readability by David Bertho.
Bitcoin Fundamentals - Puell MultipleThis is an indicator that derives from Bitcoin Mining daily generated Income.
It does show a perfect track record on calling Bitcoin cycle tops and cycle bottoms.
For those of you willing to experiment, I've enabled the ability to set custom periods (365 by default).
The indicator includes custom alerts to notify the entry and the exit from OverBought (OB) & OverSold (OS) bands.
Credits: David Puell twitter.com
Cycle Dynamic Composite AverageThis MA uses the formula of simple cycle indicator to find 2 cycles periods length's .
The CDCA is the result of 8 different ma to control and filter the price. The regression line is the signal , don t need to look candles, but just the cross between MA and reg lin.
Election Year GainsShows the yearly gains of the chart in U.S. Election years.
Use the options to turn on other years in the cycle.
For use with the 12M chart.
Will show non-sensical data with other intervals.
4 Pack Scalping ToolThe 4 Squeeze Scalp tool is a tool that I have developed over the past few years. I was always fascinated by the fact that most people don’t know where price is heading. While Fibonacci and other linear type methods work it never gelled with me. I started by going deep into the fundamentals of momentum with an understanding that an object in motion heading in a particular direction tends to stay heading in that direction (until something derails it). Price, in my opinion, is no different.
Price can move up, down and sideways. And it moves in a wave, getting stronger over time until eventually pulling back and starting over again. In my mind, the compression of price and the relationship of that pressure to various lengths of time as well as RSI, ADX and DMI across these same time frames gives you a view on how the underlying price momentum is building up and releasing. For trading you want to be building a trade when pressure starts to build and you want to take profits when the wave starts to pull back and build for the next cycle.
Each dot represents a length of the momentum indicator and the line inside the oscillator is a weighted composite of the underlying momentum structure for each of the lengths selected. A trade follows the directional alignment of the line (red = down, yellow = neutral / chop, green = up) and the dots should be aligned from the bottom to the top (bright green = very bullish, dark green = neutral / bullish, dark red = neutral / bearish, bright red = very bearish). When the line and the dots are aligned you will have a high probability trade.
The backtest results below are based on 2 years of backtesting, using a 2 contract trade on a 100K account. While the absolute return is not meaningful the win rate and PF are great for a trade on CL on this timeframe. The tool can be used on any asset over any timeframe in a multitude of combinations.
To get access to the tool, please contact the author.
QG-Particle OscillatorThis is an advanced oscillator based on auxiliary particle filter. It separates signal from noise and uses smoothing algorithm similar to JMA.
The main oscillator line is a smoothed and detrended version of the price series similar to detrended oscillator line. The purple/aqua lines are a prediction based on an additional adaptive smoothing technique and current volatility.
The prediction is smoothed twice and is supposed to represent the true signal without any noise, thus the prediction should always be less than the raw detrend line. However, certain volatile conditions will cause the prediction to cross above/below the detrend line. When this happens the likelihood of a reversal or pullback is extremely high.
There are 3 dots on the zero line- Red, Green and Yellow. The yellow dots warn of an eminent pullback 2 bars before it actually occurs. This is a non-repainting indicator.
One can also use this indicator to trade CCI signals, similar to zero line rejection in existing trend.
The indicator has 2 settings- Period and Phase. The phase represents cycle phase and Period represents oscillator period.
Credits: This indicator has been originally published for Ninjatrader and this is conversion into pinescript.
Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI)Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI)
What is Lyapunov Market Instability?
Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI) is a revolutionary indicator that brings chaos theory from theoretical physics into practical trading. By calculating Lyapunov exponents—a measure of how rapidly nearby trajectories diverge in phase space—LMI quantifies market sensitivity to initial conditions. This isn't another oscillator or trend indicator; it's a mathematical lens that reveals whether markets are in chaotic (trending) or stable (ranging) regimes.
Inspired by the meditative color field paintings of Mark Rothko, this indicator transforms complex chaos mathematics into an intuitive visual experience. The elegant simplicity of the visualization belies the sophisticated theory underneath—just as Rothko's seemingly simple color blocks contain profound depth.
Theoretical Foundation (Chaos Theory & Lyapunov Exponents)
In dynamical systems, the Lyapunov exponent (λ) measures the rate of separation of infinitesimally close trajectories:
λ > 0: System is chaotic—small changes lead to dramatically different outcomes (butterfly effect)
λ < 0: System is stable—trajectories converge, perturbations die out
λ ≈ 0: Edge of chaos—transition between regimes
Phase Space Reconstruction
Using Takens' embedding theorem , we reconstruct market dynamics in higher dimensions:
Time-delay embedding: Create vectors from price at different lags
Nearest neighbor search: Find historically similar market states
Trajectory evolution: Track how these similar states diverged over time
Divergence rate: Calculate average exponential separation
Market Application
Chaotic markets (λ > threshold): Strong trends emerge, momentum dominates, use breakout strategies
Stable markets (λ < threshold): Mean reversion dominates, fade extremes, range-bound strategies work
Transition zones: Market regime about to change, reduce position size, wait for confirmation
How LMI Works
1. Phase Space Construction
Each point in time is embedded as a vector using historical prices at specific delays (τ). This reveals the market's hidden attractor structure.
2. Lyapunov Calculation
For each current state, we:
- Find similar historical states within epsilon (ε) distance
- Track how these initially similar states evolved
- Measure exponential divergence rate
- Average across multiple trajectories for robustness
3. Signal Generation
Chaos signals: When λ crosses above threshold, market enters trending regime
Stability signals: When λ crosses below threshold, market enters ranging regime
Divergence detection: Price/Lyapunov divergences signal potential reversals
4. Rothko Visualization
Color fields: Background zones represent market states with Rothko-inspired palettes
Glowing line: Lyapunov exponent with intensity reflecting market state
Minimalist design: Focus on essential information without clutter
Inputs:
📐 Lyapunov Parameters
Embedding Dimension (default: 3)
Dimensions for phase space reconstruction
2-3: Simple dynamics (crypto/forex) - captures basic momentum patterns
4-5: Complex dynamics (stocks/indices) - captures intricate market structures
Higher dimensions need exponentially more data but reveal deeper patterns
Time Delay τ (default: 1)
Lag between phase space coordinates
1: High-frequency (1m-15m charts) - captures rapid market shifts
2-3: Medium frequency (1H-4H) - balances noise and signal
4-5: Low frequency (Daily+) - focuses on major regime changes
Match to your timeframe's natural cycle
Initial Separation ε (default: 0.001)
Neighborhood size for finding similar states
0.0001-0.0005: Highly liquid markets (major forex pairs)
0.0005-0.002: Normal markets (large-cap stocks)
0.002-0.01: Volatile markets (crypto, small-caps)
Smaller = more sensitive to chaos onset
Evolution Steps (default: 10)
How far to track trajectory divergence
5-10: Fast signals for scalping - quick regime detection
10-20: Balanced for day trading - reliable signals
20-30: Slow signals for swing trading - major regime shifts only
Nearest Neighbors (default: 5)
Phase space points for averaging
3-4: Noisy/fast markets - adapts quickly
5-6: Balanced (recommended) - smooth yet responsive
7-10: Smooth/slow markets - very stable signals
📊 Signal Parameters
Chaos Threshold (default: 0.05)
Lyapunov value above which market is chaotic
0.01-0.03: Sensitive - more chaos signals, earlier detection
0.05: Balanced - optimal for most markets
0.1-0.2: Conservative - only strong trends trigger
Stability Threshold (default: -0.05)
Lyapunov value below which market is stable
-0.01 to -0.03: Sensitive - quick stability detection
-0.05: Balanced - reliable ranging signals
-0.1 to -0.2: Conservative - only deep stability
Signal Smoothing (default: 3)
EMA period for noise reduction
1-2: Raw signals for experienced traders
3-5: Balanced - recommended for most
6-10: Very smooth for position traders
🎨 Rothko Visualization
Rothko Classic: Deep reds for chaos, midnight blues for stability
Orange/Red: Warm sunset tones throughout
Blue/Black: Cool, meditative ocean depths
Purple/Grey: Subtle, sophisticated palette
Visual Options:
Market Zones : Background fields showing regime areas
Transitions: Arrows marking regime changes
Divergences: Labels for price/Lyapunov divergences
Dashboard: Real-time state and trading signals
Guide: Educational panel explaining the theory
Visual Logic & Interpretation
Main Elements
Lyapunov Line: The heart of the indicator
Above chaos threshold: Market is trending, follow momentum
Below stability threshold: Market is ranging, fade extremes
Between thresholds: Transition zone, reduce risk
Background Zones: Rothko-inspired color fields
Red zone: Chaotic regime (trending)
Gray zone: Transition (uncertain)
Blue zone: Stable regime (ranging)
Transition Markers:
Up triangle: Entering chaos - start trend following
Down triangle: Entering stability - start mean reversion
Divergence Signals:
Bullish: Price makes low but Lyapunov rising (stability breaking down)
Bearish: Price makes high but Lyapunov falling (chaos dissipating)
Dashboard Information
Market State: Current regime (Chaotic/Stable/Transitioning)
Trading Bias: Specific strategy recommendation
Lyapunov λ: Raw value for precision
Signal Strength: Confidence in current regime
Last Change: Bars since last regime shift
Action: Clear trading directive
Trading Strategies
In Chaotic Regime (λ > threshold)
Follow trends aggressively: Breakouts have high success rate
Use momentum strategies: Moving average crossovers work well
Wider stops: Expect larger swings
Pyramid into winners: Trends tend to persist
In Stable Regime (λ < threshold)
Fade extremes: Mean reversion dominates
Use oscillators: RSI, Stochastic work well
Tighter stops: Smaller expected moves
Scale out at targets: Trends don't persist
In Transition Zone
Reduce position size: Uncertainty is high
Wait for confirmation: Let regime establish
Use options: Volatility strategies may work
Monitor closely: Quick changes possible
Advanced Techniques
- Multi-Timeframe Analysis
- Higher timeframe LMI for regime context
- Lower timeframe for entry timing
- Alignment = highest probability trades
- Divergence Trading
- Most powerful at regime boundaries
- Combine with support/resistance
- Use for early reversal detection
- Volatility Correlation
- Chaos often precedes volatility expansion
- Stability often precedes volatility contraction
- Use for options strategies
Originality & Innovation
LMI represents a genuine breakthrough in applying chaos theory to markets:
True Lyapunov Calculation: Not a simplified proxy but actual phase space reconstruction and divergence measurement
Rothko Aesthetic: Transforms complex math into meditative visual experience
Regime Detection: Identifies market state changes before price makes them obvious
Practical Application: Clear, actionable signals from theoretical physics
This is not a combination of existing indicators or a visual makeover of standard tools. It's a fundamental rethinking of how we measure and visualize market dynamics.
Best Practices
Start with defaults: Parameters are optimized for broad market conditions
Match to your timeframe: Adjust tau and evolution steps
Confirm with price action: LMI shows regime, not direction
Use appropriate strategies: Chaos = trend, Stability = reversion
Respect transitions: Reduce risk during regime changes
Alerts Available
Chaos Entry: Market entering chaotic regime - prepare for trends
Stability Entry: Market entering stable regime - prepare for ranges
Bullish Divergence: Potential bottom forming
Bearish Divergence: Potential top forming
Chart Information
Script Name: Lyapunov Market Instability (LMI) Recommended Use: All markets, all timeframes Best Performance: Liquid markets with clear regimes
Academic References
Takens, F. (1981). "Detecting strange attractors in turbulence"
Wolf, A. et al. (1985). "Determining Lyapunov exponents from a time series"
Rosenstein, M. et al. (1993). "A practical method for calculating largest Lyapunov exponents"
Note: After completing this indicator, I discovered @loxx's 2022 "Lyapunov Hodrick-Prescott Oscillator w/ DSL". While both explore Lyapunov exponents, they represent independent implementations with different methodologies and applications. This indicator uses phase space reconstruction for regime detection, while his combines Lyapunov concepts with HP filtering.
Disclaimer
This indicator is for research and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice or provide direct buy/sell signals. Chaos theory reveals market character, not future prices. Always use proper risk management and combine with your own analysis. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
See markets through the lens of chaos. Trade the regime, not the noise.
Bringing theoretical physics to practical trading through the meditative aesthetics of Mark Rothko
Trade with insight. Trade with anticipation.
— Dskyz , for DAFE Trading Systems
