VIX Rule of 16There’s an interesting aspect of VIX that has to do with the number 16. (approximately the square root of the number of trading days in a year).
In any statistical model, 68.2% of price movement falls within one standard deviation (1 SD ). The rest falls into the “tails” outside of 1 SD .
When you divide any implied volatility (IV) reading (such as VIX ) by 16, the annualized number becomes a daily number
The essence of the “rule of 16.” Once you get it, you can do all sorts of tricks with it.
If the VIX is trading at 16, then one-third of the time, the market expects the S&P 500 Index (SPX) to trade up or down by more than 1% (because 16/16=1). A VIX at 32 suggests a move up or down of more than 2% a third of the time, and so on.
• VIX of 16 – 1/3 of the time the SPX will have a daily change of at least 1%
• VIX of 32 – 1/3 of the time the SPX will have a daily change of at least 2%
• VIX of 48 – 1/3 of the time the SPX will have a daily change of at least 3%
VIX CBOE Volatility Index
Market Breadth - Secondary IndicatorMarket Breath is the equilibrium between number of stocks in advance to those in a decline, in other words a method to determine the current market environment. In a positive phase bullish setups will have improved probabilities and presence, whereas in a bearish phase the opposite would be true.
The primary indicator is the main tool used to identify whether the market is favorable for bullish- or bearish setups. The secondary indicator is complementary, with the purpose to calculate the intensity of each phase. In other words, overbought or oversold conditons.
The calculations are made based on the MMFI (% of stocks above 50 DMA).
- Red Column: Value below 21 would be considered oversold, where 10 < would be extreme / capitulation.
- Green Column: Value above 72 would be considered overbought, however in a stable bullish phase would on the contrary indicate positive acceleration.
There are also prints of dots that are created around / end of these extremes, which can indicate a reversal attempt. This will be printed when there is a countertrend move in the MMFI, VIX and SPY from an extreme value.
- Red Dots: Countertrend (down expansion) from a bullish phase.
- Green Dots: Countertrend (up expansion) from a bearish phase.
- Black Dots: Countertrend (up expansion) from an extreme / deep bearish phase.
How To Use
Use the primary indicator to note whether the market is more favorable for bullish- or bearish setups. Then look at the secondary breadth indicator and note whether there are extreme numbers and take that into account with a discretionary perspective. Example In case the market is in a bearish phase, have extended to the downside for several weeks and the primary breadth indicator is bearish. But he secondary show oversold levels with reversal prints, one should consider to be more careful on short side to risk of mean reversion. In simple terms these can be used to determine whether the current market is appropriate for selected setups.
SPX Implied Probability of closing above/belowThis is a recreation of the work done by Michael Rechenthin aka "Dr.Data" from Tastytrade back in 2016 (this indicator is for SP:SPX only)
You can watch the episode where "Dr.Data", Tom and Tony go over this concept on the following link:
www.tastytrade.com
The following are my personal additions:
- ability to choose between TVC:VIX and NASDAQ:VOLI as the IV input
- ability to choose between 252 and 365 for the number of days
Note that I’m displaying 4 decimal places (#.####) to be as accurate as possible but sometimes you will see 0% or 100% displayed which means that more decimal places are needed (0% could be 0.00005% or 100% could be 99.99995%).
VIX/VOLI RatioWe all know TVC:VIX . But what is NASDAQ:VOLI ?
VOLI is basically a measure of expectations for market volatility over the next 30 calendar days as expressed by ATM options on AMEX:SPY
nations.com
So why is this VIX /VOLI ratio important? It's because it can give an important measure of options skew.
It can show the premium of OTM options (particularly puts) over ATM.
It can show if traders are interested in owning wings in AMEX:SPY
Not a lot of info can be taken by just looking at the ratio as a standalone nominal value. Plus, the ratio is noisy and spotting a clear trend can be hard.
For these reasons, I decided to code this indicator (which is best used on the Daily chart).
I added two EMA clouds, 7 and 12 and color code them with respect to their positions. If 7 > 12, cloud will be green. If 7 < 12, cloud will be red. This will give a better view of how the ratio is trending.
I then added a lookback period that can be changed from the indicator's setting (along with the fast and slow EMAs).
The lookback period will be used to get the following parameters:
- highest value
- lowest value
- 10th, 30th, 50th, 70th and 90th percentiles
- Percentile Rank
- Average, Median and Mode
Having all these values in a table will give a better idea of where the current ratio sits.
Volatility Inverse Correlation CandleThis is an educational tool that can help you find direct or inverse relations between two assets.
In this case I am using VIX and SPX .
The way it works is the next one :
So I am looking at the current open value of VIX in comparison with the previous close ( if it either above or below) and after on the SPX I am looking into the history and see for example which type of candle we had in respect with the opening value from VIX .
So for example, lets imagine that today is monday, and the weekly open value from VIX was higher than previous friday close value. Now I am going to see with the inverse correlation , if based on this idea, the current weekly candle from SPX finished in a bear candle.
The same can be applied for the bearish situation, so if we had an open from VIX lower than previous close, we are looking to check the SPX bull candle accuracy.
At the same time, for a different type of calculation I have added an internal lookup into heikin ashi values.
If you have any questions please let me know !
Williams Vix Fix ultra complete indicator (Tartigradia)Williams VixFix is a realized volatility indicator developed by Larry Williams, and can help in finding market bottoms.
Indeed, as Williams describe in his paper, markets tend to find the lowest prices during times of highest volatility, which usually accompany times of highest fear. The VixFix is calculated as how much the current low price statistically deviates from the maximum within a given look-back period.
Although the VixFix originally only indicates market bottoms, its inverse may indicate market tops. As masa_crypto writes : "The inverse can be formulated by considering "how much the current high value statistically deviates from the minimum within a given look-back period." This transformation equates Vix_Fix_inverse. This indicator can be used for finding market tops, and therefore, is a good signal for a timing for taking a short position." However, in practice, the Inverse VixFix is much less reliable than the classical VixFix, but is nevertheless a good addition to get some additional context.
For more information on the Vix Fix, which is a strategy published under public domain:
* The VIX Fix, Larry Williams, Active Trader magazine, December 2007, web.archive.org
* Fixing the VIX: An Indicator to Beat Fear, Amber Hestla-Barnhart, Journal of Technical Analysis, March 13, 2015, ssrn.com
* Replicating the CBOE VIX using a synthetic volatility index trading algorithm, Dayne Cary and Gary van Vuuren, Cogent Economics & Finance, Volume 7, 2019, Issue 1, doi.org
Created By ChrisMoody on 12-26-2014...
V3 MAJOR Update on 1-05-2014
tista merged LazyBear's Black Dots filter in 2020:
Extended by Tartigradia in 10-2022:
* Can select a symbol different from current to calculate vixfix, allows to select SP:SPX to mimic the original VIX index.
* Inverse VixFix (from masa_crypto and web.archive.org)
* VixFix OHLC Bars plot
* Price / VixFix Candles plot (Pro Tip: draw trend lines to find good entry/exit points)
* Add ADX filtering, Minimaxis signals, Minimaxis filtering (from samgozman )
* Convert to pinescript v5
* Allow timeframe selection (MTF)
* Skip off days (more accurate reproduction of original VIX)
* Reorganized, cleaned up code, commented out parts, commented out or removed unused code (eg, some of the KC calculations)
* Changed default Bollinger Band settings to reduce false positives in crypto markets.
Set Index symbol to SPX, and index_current = false, and timeframe Weekly, to reproduce the original VIX as close as possible by the VIXFIX (use the Add Symbol option, because you want to plot CBOE:VIX on the same timeframe as the current chart, which may include extended session / weekends). With the Weekly timeframe, off days / extended session days should not change much, but with lower timeframes this is important, because nights and weekends can change how the graph appears and seemingly make them different because of timing misalignment when in reality they are not when properly aligned.
Dealar VIX Implied Range + Retracement LevelsThis Implied range Is derived by the VIX(1 sd annual +/- Implied move.)
This Indicator plots the daily Implied range, A lot of quantitative trading firms/ MM firms hedge their delta & gamma exposure around the Implied range(prop calc). I have added retracement levels as well, so you have more pivot levels.
Enjoy!
Full Volatility Statistics and Forecast
This is a tool designed to translate the data from the expected volatility of different assets, such as for example VIX, which measures the volatility of SP500 index.
Once get the data from the volatility asset we want to measure(for this test I have used VIX), we are going to translate it the required timeframe expected move by dividing the initial value into :
252 = if we want to use the daily timeframe, since there are ~252 aproximative daily trading days
52 = if we want to use the weekly timeframe, since there 52 trading weeks in a year
12 = if we want to use the monthly timeframe, since there are 12 months in a year
For this example I have used 252 with the daily timeframe.
In this scenario, we can see that we had 5711 total cnadles which we analysed, and in this case, we had 942 crosses, where the daily movement ended up either above or below the channel made from the opening daily candle value + expected movement from the volatility, giving as a total of 16.5% of occurances that volatility was higher than expected, and in 83.5% of the times, we can see that the price stayed within our channel.
At the same time, we can see that we had 6 max losses in a row ( OUT) AND 95 max wins in a row (IN), and at the same time in those moments when the volatility crosses happen we had a 0.51% avg movements when the top crossed happened, and 0.67% avg movements when the bot happened.
Lastly on the second part of the panel, we had E which means the expected movement of today, for example it has 61.056$ , so lets say price opened on 4083, our top is 4083 + 61 and our bot is 4083 - 61 ( giving us the daily channel). At continuation we can see that overall the avg bull candle os 0.714% and avg bear candle was 0.805% .
I hope this tool will help you with your future analysis and trades !
If you have any questions please let me know !
vol_boxA simple script to draw a realized volatility forecast, in the form of a box. The script calculates realized volatility using the EWMA method, using a number of periods of your choosing. Using the "periods per year", you can adjust the script to work on any time frame. For example, if you are using an hourly chart with bitcoin, there are 24 periods * 365 = 8760 periods per year. This setting is essential for the realized volatility figure to be accurate as an annualized figure, like VIX.
By default, the settings are set to mimic CBOE volatility indices. That is, 252 days per year, and 20 period window on the daily timeframe (simulating a 30 trading day period).
Inside the box are three figures:
1. The current realized volatility.
2. The rank. E.g. "10%" means the current realized volatility is less than 90% of realized volatility measures.
3. The "accuracy": how often price has closed within the box, historically.
Inputs:
stdevs: the number of standard deviations for the box
periods to project: the number of periods to forecast
window: the number of periods for calculating realized volatility
periods per year: the number of periods in one year (e.g. 252 for the "D" timeframe)
Strategy Oil Z ScoreObjective is to find forward looking indicators to find good entries into major index's.
In similar vein to my Combo Z Score script I have implemented one looking at oil and oil volatility. Interestingly the script out performs WITHOUT applying the EMA in longer timeframes but under performs in shorter timeframes, for example 2007 vs 2019. Likely due to the bullish nature of the past decade (by and large). You have some options on the underlying included Oil vs OVX (Best), MOVE vs OVX and VIX vs OVX. Oil vs OVX out performs Combo Z Script. Favours Spy over QQQ or derivations (SPXL etc).
Williams Vix Fix Bottoms and TopsThis indicator uses the very popular Williams Vix Fix for Bottoms by Chris Moody but not only does it search for bottoms, it can also be switch to work for tops for those who look to short the market. I've also added in a few options like flipping the indicator, color adjustments on the settings page, as well as cut a few of the options I feel did not need to be in which cluttered the screen when the settings were opened. In his later revisions of the Williams Vix Fix, CM took out the functions which draw the high/low ranges as well as the standard deviation which is what this indicator uses to show entry points. I have added options back on to draw these, I think it's useful. To be honest, I have not messed around with the number settings much so I am not sure how adjusting the look back range or going for smaller / bigger percentage changes would change how well the indicator works. It seems to work very well at its default settings.
With the Bollinger Band deviation, you have to remember that it looks back at the set amount of candles (20 by default) and uses those for the standard deviation: 1 dev = 68%, 2 dev = 95%, 3 dev = 99.7%
These percentages mean that at 2 dev, 95% of the last 20 candles will remain within the boundaries of the Bollinger Bands. Three tends to be too high, one is usually too low. Two is pretty good.
The lowest percentile option probably won't change much other than bring up the bottom line which doesn't effect the alerts or signals, just something to observe.
The highest percentile option makes a difference similar to the stand deviation and Bollinger Band. The higher you put it, the less likely it will get triggered but the more reliant it of a signal it should be.
As always, I have left notes throughout the code and I did leave in the code that was original but commented it out as I don't believe it's worth having.
I like to have the high/lows drawn, as well as the standard deviation. Then I find that the filtered entries are most accurate signals to follow. Simple entry is hit or miss, Aggressive entry is always early but sometimes that's not a great thing.
Strategy: Combo Z ScoreStrategy version of Combo Z Score
Objective:
Can we use both VIX and MOVE relationships to indicate movement in the SPY? VIX (forward contract on SPY options) correlations are quite common as forward indicators however MOVE (forward contract on bonds) also provides a slightly different level of insight
Using the Z-Score of VIX vs VVIX and MOVE vs inverted VIX (there is no M of Move so we use inverted Vix as a proxy) we get some helpful indications of potential future moves. Added %B to give us some exposure to momentum. Toggle VIX or MOVE.
If anyone has a better idea of inverted Vix to proxy forward interest in MOVE let me know.
Noticeable delta is that Vix only approach over the back test period is slightly better. Questions would be, what is the structure and nature of the market over the test period and in a bear market would MOVE or combined perform better.
Combo Z ScoreObjective:
Can we use both VIX and MOVE relationships to indicate movement in the SPY? VIX (forward contract on SPY options) correlations are quite common as forward indicators however MOVE (forward contract on bonds) also provides a slightly different level of insight
Using the Z-Score of VIX vs VVIX and MOVE vs inverted VIX (there is no M of Move so we use inverted Vix as a proxy) we get some helpful indications of potential future moves. Added %B to give us some exposure to momentum. Toggle VIX or MOVE.
If anyone has a better idea of inverted Vix to proxy forward interest in MOVE let me know.
VIX: Backwardation Vs ContangoVIX: Backwardation Vs Contango
Quickly visualize Contango vs Backwardation in the S&P 500 Volatility Index by plotting the prices of the futures contracts over the next 9 months
Note: indicator does not map to time axis in the same way as price; it simply plots the progression of contract months out into the future; left to right; so timeframe DOESN'T MATTER for this plot
TO UPDATE(every few months recommended): in REQUEST CONTRACTS section, delete old contracts (top) and add new ones (bottom). Then in PLOTTING section, Delete old contract labels (bottom); add new contract labels (top); adjust the X in 'bar_index-(X+_historical)' numbers accordingly
This is one of several similar indicators: Meats | Metals | Grains | VIX
Tips:
-Right click and reset chart if you can't see the plot; or if you have trouble with the scaling.
-Right click and pin to Scale A to plot on the same scale as price
--Added historical input: input days back in time; to see the historical shape of the Futures curve via selecting 'days back' snapshot
updated 15th June 2022
© twingall
(JS) Checklist SignalsWhat if I told you that you could use over 10 indicators at once without having a single one of them on you chart? Enter the Checklist Signals. This is probably the most complex yet simple indicator I've ever done.
What you get is 6 rows (if you want them all) of labels that hover at the top of your screen with a ton of extremely useful information. I will go down the list of options in the indicator settings and explain how it all works.
So the label placement is based on ATR. You choose your X Axis and Y Axis starting point then adjust the lookback period. Default lookback is 600 bars. What that means is, the indicator finds the highest high in the last 600 bars, then begins to place the labels above that zone based on the ATR of the chart. Different timeframes require very different combinations so it's all customizable. Sometimes if labels overlap you need to adjust the X Axis starting point, or the spread on either axis.
The next set of options allows you to decide what you'd prefer to be set on or off. Let's start with ATR and VWAP. I have added bands for both of these. When price is below the mean (which is the 21 ema by default), then the labels show you the next 5 standard deviations of ATR going down. When under one of these levels the label turns red. The opposite is true when above the mean and in those instances the labels will be green. It is the same with the VWAP, though instead of using the mean we use the daily VWAP as the starting point. If you choose to have levels switched on then you can see the actual values of each standard deviation level. Down lower in the options you can change the resolution and source used for VWAP.
The next option is "Trending". This creates a moving average using the length of the Trending Lookback Period (default is 5) and then tells you using arrows in the label which direction the trend of the indicator is going.
The next area let's you specify the information you receive in the Squeeze labels. By default all options are one - and this tells you if there's a Squeeze, what type of Squeeze there is, and how many bars the Squeeze has been building up or since it fired. These labels are color coded to correspond with the Squeeze type as well.
Then we get to another one of my indicators, the Ballista. One of the main signals is the "Inverted Squeeze" where the short term momentum inverts against the long term momentum. Here I have the distance between the two oscillators in the first label, and then the second label tells you if there's an Inverted Squeeze signal, if there's potential entry, confirmed entry, or how many bars its been since the last entry signal.
The next feature is off by default, but it will add arrows to your chart based on a simple lower highs and higher lows signals. Turning arrows on will place them right on your chart above or below each bar.
The rest of it is customizable settings of all the other indicators that are shown. Now looking at the labels themselves, starting in the top left corner:
First Row-
ADX + DMI: These labels show the ADX, DI+, & DI- values in each label. Whenever the DI+ or DI- is above the other then their respective label will light up. Also, when the ADX is above 20 (confirming the trend) it lights up in the same color as well.
Squeeze: I described how this worked above, the labels tell you if there's a Squeeze, how long there's been one, and how long since it fired, all while also changing to color of the associated Squeeze type.
Second Row -
Stacked EMAs: The top label looks at the EMA values using the numbers of the Fibonacci sequence. It looks at the EMA 8, 21, 34, 55, 89, & 233 and tells you if they're all stacked in the same direction (Stacked Bear meaning they're all crossed down in order, Stacked Bull meaning they're all crossed up in order). If the EMAs are all stacked but 1 or 2 it will say Stacked -1 or Stacked -2. When they're all over the place it will say they aren't stacked at all.
BB%: This tells you the value of the Bollinger Band %. If this is negative then you know that price is currently below the lower Bollinger Band, and if it is above 100% it is above the upper Bollinger Band.
RSI: This tells you the value of the RSI and the label changes colors based on the value.
Stoch: This tells you the Stochastic value and changes colors based on the value, same as the RSI.
Third Row -
The Mean: This tells you the numerical value of whatever you have the mean set as (21 ema by default). The label changes colors based on price being above or below the mean.
One ATR: This was something I added for those looking to plan their trades out. This tells you the value of one ATR so you can have a better idea of how to plan your trades based on this distance.
VIX: This tells you the current value of the VIX, and color changes based on being green or red on the day.
Ballista: I explained this above, it tells you the distance between the two oscillators and changes colors based on the trend being above or below 0. When there's an Inverted Squeeze this label is gray.
Inverted Squeeze: This label tells you if there's an inverted squeeze as well as if it is showing an entry or how many bars since the last entry signal. This label turns fuchsia on a bear signal and lime on a bull signal.
Fourth Row -
ATR Bands: As I explained above, this plots each standard deviation using ATR and changes colors based on price's relationship to each one.
Fifth Row -
VWAP: The three labels here show the daily, weekly, and monthly VWAP values, and color changes based on price's relationship to each one.
Sixth Row -
VWAP Bands: These are the standard deviation levels of the VWAP resolution of your choosing (as explained above), and just as the others, colors change based on price's relationship to each one.
I thought this was a really cool indicator that could be used for people like me who like knowing the right information, but HATE having their charts clustered with a ton of stuff. Hope you all like it, enjoy!
Index Reversal Range with Volatility Index or VIXWhat is the Indicator?
• The indicator is a visualization of maximum price in which the respective index can go up to in comparison with it's Volatility Index or VIX.
Who to use?
• Intraday
• Swing
• Position
• Long term Investors
• Futures
• Options
• Portfolio Managers
• Mutual Fund Managers
• Index Traders
• Volatility based Traders
• Long term Investors and Options Traders gets the maximum benefit
What timeframe to use?
• 1 Year: Position & Investors
• 6 Months: Position & Investors
• 3 Months: Swing & Position
• 1 Month: Swing & Position
• 1 Week: Swing
• 1 Day: Swing
• 1 Hour: Intraday & Swing
What are Upper and Lower lines?
• Upper Line: If the index price reach closer to the Upper line there is a high chance of reversal to Bearish trend.
• Lower Line: If the index price reach closer to the Lower line there is a high chance of reversal to Bullish trend.
• This need to be confirmed with multiple levels like Daily, Weekly, Monthly etc.
How to use?
• If the price reach closer to that level there is a high chance of reversal from the current trend.
• To identify the reversal zone of the index.
• To identify the trend.
• Option Traders can Sell a Call or Put Option from that level.
• Long term Investors, Position or Swing traders can plan for a Long entry.
• Intraday traders can use lower timeframes to do the same.
Indicator Menu
• Input VIX: Identify the VIX Symbol of your Index and type it in the box.
• For example for NIFTY Index chart type INDIAVIX in the box.
• Choose multiple timeframes according to your convenience.
How to turn on indicator Name and Value labels?
• Right side of the screen >
• Right click on the Price scale >
• Labels > Indicators and financial name labels, Indicators and financial value labels
Further Reading:
• Various videos and reading materials are available about this method.
VIX FixSistema de trading hecho por Larry Williams, basado en VIX, optimizado para cualquier activo.
Formula:
(Highest (Close, 20) - Low) / (Highest (Close, 20)) * 100
Donde “Highest (Close, 20)” representa el cierre mas alto de los ultimos 20 periodos
Larry Williams Mechanical Trading System based on VIX.
The VIX Fix applies the same general formula that is used to calculate the stochastic indicator, so can be used for any asset:
(Highest (Close, 20) - Low) / (Highest (Close, 20)) * 100
Where “Highest (Close, 20)” means the highest closing value in the past 20 periods and the low refers
to the current period’s low. The formula can be applied to any timeframe.
HLC True Strength Indicator (with Vix)HLC True Strength Indicator Volume Weighted with Vix Line by SpreadEagle71
This indicator is a True Strength Indicator with Close, High and Low used together, along with the TSI of the Vix.
The white line is the close. The red line is the lows and the blue is the highs. These are also volume-weighted.
How to Interpret:
1. zero line crosses. If SPY/SPX500 crosses the zero line, then its bullish. If the purple Vix line crosses up, watch out because this is bearish.
2. white/blue/red lines cross purple (Vix). If they cross upwards, this is bullish. If downward, this is bearish. Basically, SPX, ES1!, SPY or even DIA can be used. The security and the Vix should travel in opposite directions and cross the zero-line at the same time. But this is not always the case.
3. Black area infills. These are used between the close and the highs (blue) and the lows(red). Close should not be between these in order to have momentum.
4. Close (white line) leads. Close is the last price so it tends to show where the others (highs and lows) are going. If the close is sagging below a high where the blue lines are on top, this could mean that there is a reversal coming. Same holds true for a white line above a "valley" formed by the blue and red lines; it could mean a reversal to the upside soon.
5. The Black Infill areas as a squeeze or contraction/expansion area. The thinner the black infill areas, the more of a momentum "squeeze" could be present. Wide black infill areas mean increased volatility and what may come next is a reversion to the mean for volatility. See TTM Squeeze Indicator or the Squeeze Momentum Indicator (kudos LazyBear).
Lastly, just remember indicators indicate; they are not magic. :)
SpreadEagle71
VIX Volatility Trend Analysis With Signals - Stocks OnlyVIX VOLATILITY TREND ANALYSIS CLOUD WITH BULLISH & BEARISH SIGNALS - STOCKS ONLY
This indicator is a visual aid that shows you the bullish or bearish trend of VIX market volatility so you can see the VIX trend without switching charts. When volatility goes up, most stocks go down and vice versa. When the cloud turns green, it is a bullish sign. When the cloud turns red, it is a bearish sign.
This indicator is meant for stocks with a lot of price action and volatility, so for best results, use it on charts that move similar to the S&P 500 or other similar charts.
This indicator uses real time data from the stock market overall, so it should only be used on stocks and will only give a few signals during after hours. It does work ok for crypto, but will not give signals when the US stock market is closed.
**HOW TO USE**
When the VIX Volatility Index trend changes direction, it will give a green or red line on the chart depending on which way the VIX is now trending. The cloud will also change color depending on which way the VIX is trending. Use this to determine overall market volatility and place trades in the direction that the indicator is showing. Do not use this by itself as sometimes markets won’t react perfectly to the overall market volatility. It should only be used as a secondary confirmation in your trading/trend analysis.
For more signals with earlier entries, go into settings and reduce the number. 10-100 is best for scalping. For less signals with later entries, change the number to a higher value. Use 100-500 for swing trades. Can go higher for long swing trades. Our favorite settings are 20, 60, 100, 500 and 1000.
***MARKETS***
This indicator should only be used on the US stock markets as signals are given based on the VIX volatility index which measures volatility of the US Stock Markets.
***TIMEFRAMES***
This indicator works on all time frames, but after hours will not change much at all due to the markets being closed.
**INVERSE CHARTS**
If you are using this on an inverse ETF and the signals are showing backwards, please comment with what chart it is and I will configure the indicator to give the correct signals. I have included over 50 inverse ETFs into the code to show the correct signals on inverse charts, but I'm sure there are some that I have missed so feel free to let me know and I will update the script with the requested tickers.
***TIPS***
Try using numerous indicators of ours on your chart so you can instantly see the bullish or bearish trend of multiple indicators in real time without having to analyze the data. Some of our favorites are our Auto Fibonacci, Directional Movement Index, Volume Profile with buy & sell pressure, Auto Support And Resistance, Vix Scalper and Money Flow Index in combination with this Vix Trend Analysis. They all have real time Bullish and Bearish labels as well so you can immediately understand each indicator's trend.
Session LevelsThis indicator plots important session (intraday) levels for the day. It plots high and low of previous day, week, month, 52 week and all time. Also plots the vix range which shows the daily expected trading range of the instrument. These levels acts as important support/resistance for the day.
For example, if price closes above previous day, week, or month high/low it indicates bullish sentiment and vice versa for bearish.
Vix Range plots top, center, bottom line for expected trading range for the day. It is calculated based on the volatility index selected (NSE:India VIX is used by default).
Artharjan INDIA VIX v/s Nifty Volatility DashboardHi,
I have created Artharjan INDIA VIX v/s Nifty Volatility Dashboard to forecast the Annual, Quarterly, Monthly, Weekly, Daily and Hourly Volatility of NIFTY Benchmark Index based on current value of INDIA VIX. This will help Index Options Sellers to decide the range of Nifty for the given period based on current level of volatility indicated by INDIA VIX.
Options Sellers may make use of the Min Range and Max Range values for the Strike Price Selection.
Regards
Rahul Desai
@Artharjan
TICK strategy for SPY optionsImportant notes:
1. This strategy is designed for same day SPY option scalping. All profit shown in back testing report is based on Profit/Loss (P/L) estimates from trading options with approximately 6 months of data. By default, it is set to 10 option contracts. By default the initial capital is set to $5000. Pyramiding is set to 3.
2. This strategy works better with non-extended market data.
3. This strategy is mainly developed for SPY trading on 5 min chart, it probably will not be very profitable with other tickers or time frame without tweaking all the parameters first.
4. This strategy will work with QQQ as well, but please adjust the profit multiplier to match the P/L of QQQ options.
How it works:
When trading the indices, many rely on the TICK for market directions. This strategy is a trend following strategy that uses a combination of conditions using the following indicators:
- TICK
- RSI
- VIX volatility index
- EMA
For entries, the conditions are:
1. TICK moving average crossover with a delayed signal line
2. Bullish or bearish RSI signal, RSI > 50 for bullish, < 50 for bearish
3. VIX must be above a certain threshold to take advantage of high market volatility
4. Price must be on top of EMA line for long, and below for short
For exits, there are 3 scenarios:
1. Stop loss set by a percentage of the daily ATR value
2. Trend changes on the TICK and the RSI
3. Bearish or bullish divergence on price with TICK
This strategy automatically signal to close all trades at 3:50 pm EST at the end of the day.
Extras:
- There is an option to show P/L for reinvesting profits
Enjoy~!!! Let's all make $$$
VIX Strategy : Risk-ON, Risk-OFF
VRatio is the ratio of VIX3M and VIX. This ratio rises above 1.1; in a bear market, it decreases and goes below 1. VRatio=VIX3M/VIX. More details in Part 2.
VRatio > 1: Risk-On signal
Contango is the ratio of VX2 (first back-month contract) and VX1 (front-month contract) minus one. In a bull market, this indicator rises above 5%’ in a downtrend market, this indicator goes below -5%. More details in Part 2.
Contango > -5%: Risk-On signal
Contango Roll is the ratio of VX2 first back-month contract) and the VIX minus one. In a bull market, this indicator rises above 10%’ in a downtrend market, this indicator goes below -10%. More details in Part 2.
Contango Roll > 10%: Risk-On signal
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) compares the implied volatility to the recent realized volatility; it attempts to quantify how much “extra” premium (in volatility term) S&P500 option sellers are charging investors for the protection of their portfolio. It can be seen as an insurance premium. A simple way to compute the VRP is VRP= VIX -HV10 where HV10 is the 10-day historical volatility of S&P500. Some people also look at the 5-day moving average of the VRP to smooth this indicator.
VRP > 0: Risk-On signal
Fast Volatility Risk Premium (FVRP) is a variant of the VRP. FVRP=EMA(VIX,7)-HV5 where HV5 the 5-day historical volatility of S&P500.
FVRP > 0: Risk-On signal
Volatility Momentum compares today’s VIX to last 50 days. It has, therefore, quite a bit of lag but it is a useful measure when combined with other indicators. Volatility Momentum=SMA(VIX,50) -VIX.
Volatility Momentum > 0: Risk-On signal
VIX Mean Reversion looks at today’s VIX compared to certain thresholds. We avoid investing in the S&P500 when the VIX is too high (above 20) or too low (below 12).
VIX Mean Reversion > 12 and VIX Mean Reversion < 20: Risk-On signal
VIX3M Mean Reversion works the same way as VIX Mean Reversion.
VIX3M Mean Reversion > 12 and VIX3M Mean Reversion < 20: Risk-On signal
