Adaptive EMA with ATR and Standard Deviation [QuantAlgo]Adaptive EMA with ATR and Standard Deviation by QuantAlgo 📈✨
Introducing the Adaptive EMA with ATR and Standard Deviation , a comprehensive trend-following indicator designed to combine the smoothness of an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with the volatility adjustments of Average True Range (ATR) and Standard Deviation. This synergy allows traders and investors to better identify market trends while accounting for volatility, delivering clearer signals in both trending and volatile market conditions. This indicator is suitable for traders and investors seeking to balance trend detection and volatility management, offering a robust and adaptable approach across various asset classes and timeframes.
💫 Core Concept and Innovation
The Adaptive EMA with ATR and Standard Deviation brings together the trend-smoothing properties of the EMA and the volatility sensitivity of ATR and Standard Deviation. By using the EMA to track price movements over time, the indicator smooths out minor fluctuations while still providing valuable insights into overall market direction. However, market volatility can sometimes distort simple moving averages, so the ATR and Standard Deviation components dynamically adjust the trend signals, offering more nuanced insights into trend strength and reversals. This combination equips traders with a powerful tool to navigate unpredictable markets while minimizing false signals.
📊 Technical Breakdown and Calculations
The Adaptive EMA with ATR and Standard Deviation relies on three key technical components:
1. Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The EMA forms the base of the trend detection. Unlike a Simple Moving Average (SMA), the EMA gives more weight to recent price changes, allowing it to react more quickly to new data. Users can adjust the length of the EMA to make it more or less responsive to price movements.
2. Standard Deviation Bands: These bands are calculated from the standard deviation of the EMA and represent dynamic volatility thresholds. The upper and lower bands expand or contract based on recent price volatility, providing more accurate signals in both calm and volatile markets.
3. ATR-Based Volatility Filter: The Average True Range (ATR) is used to measure market volatility over a user-defined period. It helps refine the trend signals by filtering out false positives caused by minor price swings. The ATR filter ensures that the indicator only signals significant market movements.
⚙️ Step-by-Step Calculation:
1. EMA Calculation: First, the indicator calculates the EMA over a specified period based on the chosen price source (e.g., close, high, low).
2. Standard Deviation Bands: Then, it computes the standard deviation of the EMA and applies a multiplier to create upper and lower bands around the EMA. These bands adjust dynamically with the level of market volatility.
3. ATR Filtering: In addition to the standard deviation bands, the ATR is applied as a secondary filter to help refine the trend signals. This step helps eliminate signals generated by short-term price spikes or corrections, ensuring that the signals are more reliable.
4. Trend Detection: When the price crosses above the upper band, a bullish trend is identified, while a move below the lower band signals a bearish trend. The system accounts for both the standard deviation and ATR bands to generate these signals.
✅ Customizable Inputs and Features
The Adaptive EMA with ATR and Standard Deviation provides a range of customizable options to fit various trading/investing styles:
📈 Trend Settings:
1. Price Source: Choose the price type (e.g., close, high, low) to base the EMA calculation on, influencing how the trend is tracked.
2. EMA Length: Adjust the length to control how quickly the EMA reacts to price changes. A shorter length provides a more responsive EMA, while a longer period smooths out short-term fluctuations.
🌊 Volatility Controls:
1. Standard Deviation Multiplier: This parameter controls the sensitivity of the trend detection by adjusting the distance between the upper and lower bands from the EMA.
2. TR Length and Multiplier: Fine-tune the ATR settings to control how volatility is filtered, adjusting the indicator’s responsiveness during high or low volatility phases.
🎨 Visualization and Alerts:
1. Bar Coloring: Select different colors for uptrends and downtrends, providing a clear visual cue when trends change.
2. Alerts: Set up alerts to notify you when the price crosses the upper or lower bands, signaling a potential long or short trend shift. Alerts can help you stay informed without constant chart monitoring.
📈 Practical Applications
The Adaptive EMA with ATR and Standard Deviation is ideal for traders and investors looking to balance trend-following strategies with volatility management. Key uses include:
Detecting Trend Reversals: The dynamic bands help identify when the market shifts direction, providing clear signals when a trend reversal is likely.
Filtering Market Noise: By applying both Standard Deviation and ATR filtering, the indicator helps reduce false signals during periods of heightened volatility.
Volatility-Based Risk Management: The adaptability of the bands ensures that traders can manage risk more effectively by responding to shifts in volatility while keeping focus on long-term trends.
⭐️ Comprehensive Summary
The Adaptive EMA with ATR and Standard Deviation is a highly customizable indicator that provides traders with clearer signals for trend detection and volatility management. By dynamically adjusting its calculations based on market conditions, it offers a powerful tool for navigating both trending and volatile markets. Whether you're looking to detect early trend reversals or avoid false signals during periods of high volatility, this indicator gives you the flexibility and accuracy to improve your trading and investing strategies.
Note: The Adaptive EMA with ATR and Standard Deviation is designed to enhance your market analysis but should not be relied upon as the sole basis for trading or investing decisions. Always combine it with other analytical tools and practices. No statements or signals from this indicator constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Kripto
Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curve 2024The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve is a concept used to analyze Bitcoin's price movements over time. The idea is based on the observation that Bitcoin's price tends to grow exponentially, particularly during bull markets. It attempts to give a long-term perspective on the Bitcoin price movements.
The curve includes an upper and lower band. These bands often represent zones where Bitcoin's price is overextended (upper band) or undervalued (lower band) relative to its historical growth trajectory. When the price touches or exceeds the upper band, it may indicate a speculative bubble, while prices near the lower band may suggest a buying opportunity.
Unlike most Bitcoin growth curve indicators, this one includes a logarithmic growth curve optimized using the latest 2024 price data, making it, in our view, superior to previous models. Additionally, it features statistical confidence intervals derived from linear regression, compatible across all timeframes, and extrapolates the data far into the future. Finally, this model allows users the flexibility to manually adjust the function parameters to suit their preferences.
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve has the following function:
y = 10^(a * log10(x) - b)
In the context of this formula, the y value represents the Bitcoin price, while the x value corresponds to the time, specifically indicated by the weekly bar number on the chart.
How is it made (You can skip this section if you’re not a fan of math):
To optimize the fit of this function and determine the optimal values of a and b, the previous weekly cycle peak values were analyzed. The corresponding x and y values were recorded as follows:
113, 18.55
240, 1004.42
451, 19128.27
655, 65502.47
The same process was applied to the bear market low values:
103, 2.48
267, 211.03
471, 3192.87
676, 16255.15
Next, these values were converted to their linear form by applying the base-10 logarithm. This transformation allows the function to be expressed in a linear state: y = a * x − b. This step is essential for enabling linear regression on these values.
For the cycle peak (x,y) values:
2.053, 1.268
2.380, 3.002
2.654, 4.282
2.816, 4.816
And for the bear market low (x,y) values:
2.013, 0.394
2.427, 2.324
2.673, 3.504
2.830, 4.211
Next, linear regression was performed on both these datasets. (Numerous tools are available online for linear regression calculations, making manual computations unnecessary).
Linear regression is a method used to find a straight line that best represents the relationship between two variables. It looks at how changes in one variable affect another and tries to predict values based on that relationship.
The goal is to minimize the differences between the actual data points and the points predicted by the line. Essentially, it aims to optimize for the highest R-Square value.
Below are the results:
It is important to note that both the slope (a-value) and the y-intercept (b-value) have associated standard errors. These standard errors can be used to calculate confidence intervals by multiplying them by the t-values (two degrees of freedom) from the linear regression.
These t-values can be found in a t-distribution table. For the top cycle confidence intervals, we used t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), and t33% (0.414). For the bottom cycle confidence intervals, the t-values used were t10% (0.133), t25% (0.323), t33% (0.414), t50% (0.765), and t67% (1.063).
The final bull cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.058 ± 0.133 * log10(x) – 6.44 ± 0.324)
The final bear cycle function is:
y = 10^(4.684 ± 0.025 * log10(x) – -9.034 ± 0.063)
The main Criticisms of growth curve models:
The Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve model faces several general criticisms that we’d like to highlight briefly. The most significant, in our view, is its heavy reliance on past price data, which may not accurately forecast future trends. For instance, previous growth curve models from 2020 on TradingView were overly optimistic in predicting the last cycle’s peak.
This is why we aimed to present our process for deriving the final functions in a transparent, step-by-step scientific manner, including statistical confidence intervals. It's important to note that the bull cycle function is less reliable than the bear cycle function, as the top band is significantly wider than the bottom band.
Even so, we still believe that the Bitcoin logarithmic growth curve presented in this script is overly optimistic since it goes parly against the concept of diminishing returns which we discussed in this post:
This is why we also propose alternative parameter settings that align more closely with the theory of diminishing returns.
Our recommendations:
Drawing on the concept of diminishing returns, we propose alternative settings for this model that we believe provide a more realistic forecast aligned with this theory. The adjusted parameters apply only to the top band: a-value: 3.637 ± 0.2343 and b-parameter: -5.369 ± 0.6264. However, please note that these values are highly subjective, and you should be aware of the model's limitations.
Conservative bull cycle model:
y = 10^(3.637 ± 0.2343 * log10(x) - 5.369 ± 0.6264)
H-Infinity Volatility Filter [QuantAlgo]Introducing the H-Infinity Volatility Filter by QuantAlgo 📈💫
Enhance your trading/investing strategy with the H-Infinity Volatility Filter , a powerful tool designed to filter out market noise and identify clear trend signals in volatile conditions. By applying an advanced H∞ filtering process, this indicator assists traders and investors in navigating uncertain market conditions with improved clarity and precision.
🌟 Key Features:
🛠 Customizable Noise Parameters: Adjust worst-case noise and disturbance settings to tailor the filter to various market conditions. This flexibility helps you adapt the indicator to handle different levels of market volatility and disruptions.
⚡️ Dynamic Trend Detection: The filter identifies uptrends and downtrends based on the filtered price data, allowing you to quickly spot potential shifts in the market direction.
🎨 Color-Coded Visuals: Easily differentiate between bullish and bearish trends with customizable color settings. The indicator colors the chart’s candles according to the detected trend for immediate clarity.
🔔 Custom Alerts: Set alerts for trend changes, so you’re instantly informed when the market transitions from bullish to bearish or vice versa. Stay updated without constantly monitoring the charts.
📈 How to Use:
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the H-Infinity Volatility Filter to your favourites and apply it to your chart. Customize the noise and disturbance parameters to match the volatility of the asset you are trading/investing. This allows you to optimize the filter for your specific strategy.
👀 Monitor Trend Shifts: Watch for clear visual signals as the filter detects uptrends or downtrends. The color-coded candles and line plots help you quickly assess market conditions and potential reversals.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts to notify you when the trend changes, allowing you to react quickly to potential market shifts without needing to manually track price movements.
🌟 How It Works and Academic Background:
The H-Infinity Volatility Filter is built on the foundations of H∞ (H-infinity) control theory , a mathematical framework originating from the field of engineering and control systems. Developed in the 1980s by notable engineers such as George Zames and John C. Doyle , this theory was designed to help systems perform optimally under uncertain and noisy conditions. H∞ control focuses on minimizing the worst-case effects of disturbances and noise, making it a powerful tool for managing uncertainty in complex environments.
In financial markets, where unpredictable price fluctuations and noise often obscure meaningful trends, this same concept can be applied to price data to filter out short-term volatility. The H-Infinity Volatility Filter adopts this approach, allowing traders and investors to better identify potential trends by reducing the impact of random price movements. Instead of focusing on precise market predictions, the filter increases the probability of highlighting significant trends by smoothing out market noise.
This indicator works by processing historical price data through an H∞ filter that continuously adjusts based on worst-case noise levels and disturbances. By considering several past states, it estimates the current price trend while accounting for potential external disruptions that might influence price behavior. Parameters like "worst-case noise" and "disturbance" are user-configurable, allowing traders to adapt the filter to different market conditions. For example, in highly volatile markets, these parameters can be adjusted to manage larger price swings, while in more stable markets, they can be fine-tuned for smoother trend detection.
The H-Infinity Volatility Filter also incorporates a dynamic trend detection system that classifies price movements as bullish or bearish. It uses color-coded candles and plots—green for bullish trends and red for bearish trends—to provide clear visual cues for market direction. This helps traders and investors quickly interpret the trend and act on potential signals. While the indicator doesn’t guarantee accuracy in trend prediction, it significantly reduces the likelihood of false signals by focusing on meaningful price changes rather than random fluctuations.
How It Can Be Applied to Trading/Investing:
By applying the principles of H∞ control theory to financial markets, the H-Infinity Volatility Filter provides traders and investors with a sophisticated tool that manages uncertainty more effectively. Its design makes it suitable for use in a wide range of markets—whether in fast-moving, volatile environments or calmer conditions.
The indicator is versatile and can be used in both short-term trading and medium to long-term investing strategies. Traders can tune the filter to align with their specific risk tolerance, asset class, and market conditions, making it an ideal tool for reducing the effects of market noise while increasing the probability of detecting reliable trend signals.
For investors, the filter can help in identifying medium to long-term trends by filtering out short-term price swings and focusing on the broader market direction. Whether applied to stocks, forex, commodities, or cryptocurrencies, the H-Infinity Volatility Filter helps traders and investors interpret market behavior with more confidence by offering a more refined view of price movements through its noise reduction techniques.
Disclaimer:
The H-Infinity Volatility Filter is designed to assist in market analysis by filtering out noise and volatility. It should not be used as the sole tool for making trading or investment decisions. Always incorporate other forms of analysis and risk management strategies. No statements or signals from this indicator or us should be considered financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Adaptive VWAP [QuantAlgo]Introducing the Adaptive VWAP by QuantAlgo 📈🧬
Enhance your trading and investing strategies with the Adaptive VWAP , a versatile tool designed to provide dynamic insights into market trends and price behavior. This indicator offers a flexible approach to VWAP calculations by allowing users to adapt it based on lookback periods or fixed timeframes, making it suitable for a wide range of market conditions.
🌟 Key Features:
🛠 Customizable VWAP Settings: Choose between an adaptive VWAP that adjusts based on a rolling lookback period, or switch to a fixed timeframe (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly) for a more structured approach. Adjust the VWAP to suit your trading or investing style.
💫 Dynamic Bands and ATR Filter: Configurable deviation bands with multipliers allow you to visualize price movement around VWAP, while an ATR-based noise filter helps reduce false signals during periods of market fluctuation.
🎨 Trend Visualization: Color-coded trend identification helps you easily spot uptrends and downtrends based on VWAP positioning. The indicator fills the areas between the bands for clearer visual representation of price volatility and trend strength.
🔔 Custom Alerts: Set up alerts for when price crosses above or below the VWAP, signaling potential uptrend or downtrend opportunities. Stay informed without needing to monitor the charts constantly.
✍️ How to Use:
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the Adaptive VWAP to your favourites and apply to your chart. Choose between adaptive or timeframe-based VWAP calculation, adjust the lookback period, and configure the deviation bands to your preferred settings.
👀 Monitor Bands and Trends: Watch for price interaction with the VWAP and its deviation bands. The color-coded signals and band fills help identify potential trend shifts or price extremes.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts for uptrend and downtrend signals based on price crossing the VWAP, so you’re always informed of significant market movements.
⚙️ How It Works:
The Adaptive VWAP adjusts its calculation based on the user’s chosen configuration, allowing for a flexible approach to market analysis. The adaptive setting uses a rolling lookback period to continuously adjust the VWAP, while the fixed timeframe option anchors VWAP to key timeframes like daily, weekly, or monthly periods. This flexibility enables traders and investors to use the tool in various market environments.
Deviation bands, calculated with customizable multipliers, provide a clear visual of how far the price has moved from the VWAP, helping you gauge potential overbought or oversold conditions. To reduce false signals, an ATR-based filter can be applied, ensuring that only significant price movements trigger trend confirmations.
The tool also includes a fast exponential smoothing function for the VWAP, helping smooth out price fluctuations without sacrificing responsiveness. Trend confirmation is reinforced by the number of bars that price stays above or below the VWAP, ensuring a more consistent trend identification process.
Disclaimer:
The Adaptive VWAP is designed to enhance your market analysis but should not be relied upon as the sole basis for trading or investing decisions. Always combine it with other analytical tools and practices. No statements or signals from this indicator constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend [QuantAlgo]Introducing the Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend by QuantAlgo 📈💫
Take your trading and investing strategies to the next level with the Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend , a dynamic tool designed to adapt to market volatility and provide clear, actionable trend signals. This innovative indicator is ideal for both traders and investors looking for a more responsive approach to market trends, helping you capture potential shifts with greater precision.
🌟 Key Features:
🛠 Customizable Trend Settings: Adjust the period for trend calculation and fine-tune the sensitivity to price movements. This flexibility allows you to tailor the Supertrend to your unique trading or investing strategy, whether you're focusing on shorter or longer timeframes.
📊 Volatility-Responsive Multiplier: The Supertrend dynamically adjusts its sensitivity based on real-time market volatility. This could help filter out noise in calmer markets and provide more accurate signals during periods of heightened volatility.
✨ Trend-Based Color-Coding: Visualize bullish and bearish trends with ease. The indicator paints candles and plots trend lines with distinct colors based on the current market direction, offering quick, clear insights into potential opportunities.
🔔 Custom Alerts: Set up alerts for key trend shifts to ensure you're notified of significant market changes. These alerts would allow you to act swiftly, potentially capturing opportunities without needing to constantly monitor the charts.
📈 How to Use:
✅ Add the Indicator: Add the Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend to your chart. Customize the trend period, volatility settings, and price source to match your trading or investing style. This ensures the indicator aligns with your market strategy.
👀 Monitor Trend Shifts: Watch the color-coded trend lines and candles as they dynamically shift based on real-time market conditions. These visual cues help you spot potential trend reversals and confirm your entries and exits with greater confidence.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts for key trend shifts, allowing you to stay informed of potential market reversals or continuation patterns, even when you're not actively watching the market.
⚙️ How It Works:
The Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend is designed to adapt to changes in market conditions, making it highly responsive to price volatility. The indicator calculates a trend line based on price and volatility, dynamically adjusting it to reflect recent market behavior. When the market experiences higher volatility, the trend line becomes more flexible, potentially allowing for greater sensitivity to rapid price movements. Conversely, during periods of low volatility, the indicator tightens its range, helping to reduce noise and avoid false signals.
The indicator includes a volatility-responsive multiplier, which further enhances its adaptability to market conditions. This means the trend direction would always be based on the latest market data, potentially helping you stay ahead of shifts or continuation trends. The Supertrend's visual color-coding simplifies the process of identifying bullish or bearish trends, while customizable alerts ensure you can stay on top of significant changes in market direction.
This tool is versatile and could be applied across various markets and timeframes, making it a valuable addition for both traders and investors. Whether you’re trading in fast-moving markets or focusing on longer-term investments, the Volatility-Adjusted DEMA Supertrend could help you remain aligned with the current market environment.
Disclaimer:
This indicator is designed to enhance your analysis by providing trend information, but it should not be used as the sole basis for making trading or investing decisions. Always combine it with other forms of analysis and risk management practices. No statements or claims aim to be financial advice, and no signals from us or our indicators should be interpreted as such. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Dynamic Volume RSI (DVRSI) [QuantAlgo]Introducing the Dynamic Volume RSI (DVRSI) by QuantAlgo 📈✨
Elevate your trading and investing strategies with the Dynamic Volume RSI (DVRSI) , a powerful tool designed to provide clear insights into market momentum and trend shifts. This indicator is ideal for traders and investors who want to stay ahead of the curve by using volume-responsive calculations and adaptive smoothing techniques to enhance signal clarity and reliability.
🌟 Key Features:
🛠 Customizable RSI Settings: Tailor the indicator to your strategy by adjusting the RSI length and price source. Whether you’re focused on short-term trades or long-term investments, DVRSI adapts to your needs.
🌊 Adaptive Smoothing: Enable adaptive smoothing to filter out market noise and ensure cleaner signals in volatile or choppy market conditions.
🎨 Dynamic Color-Coding: Easily identify bullish and bearish trends with color-coded candles and RSI plots, offering clear visual cues to track market direction.
⚖️ Volume-Responsive Adjustments: The DVRSI reacts to volume changes, giving greater significance to high-volume price moves and improving the accuracy of trend detection.
🔔 Custom Alerts: Stay informed with alerts for key RSI crossovers and trend changes, allowing you to act quickly on emerging opportunities.
📈 How to Use:
✅ Add the Indicator: Set up the DVRSI by adding it to your chart and customizing the RSI length, price source, and smoothing options to fit your specific strategy.
👀 Monitor Visual Cues: Watch for trend shifts through the color-coded plot and candles, signaling changes in momentum as the RSI crosses key levels.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts for critical RSI crossovers, such as the 50 line, ensuring you stay on top of potential market reversals and opportunities.
🔍 How It Works:
The Dynamic Volume RSI (DVRSI) is a unique indicator designed to provide more accurate and responsive signals by incorporating both price movement and volume sensitivity into the RSI framework. It begins by calculating the traditional RSI values based on a user-defined length and price source, but unlike standard RSI tools, the DVRSI applies volume-weighted adjustments to reflect the strength of market participation.
The indicator dynamically adjusts its sensitivity by factoring in volume to the RSI calculation, which means that price moves backed by higher volumes carry more weight, making the signal more reliable. This method helps identify stronger trends and reduces the risk of false signals in low-volume environments. To further enhance accuracy, the DVRSI offers an adaptive smoothing option that allows users to reduce noise during periods of market volatility. This adaptive smoothing function responds to market conditions, providing a cleaner signal by reducing erratic movements or price spikes that could lead to misleading signals.
Additionally, the DVRSI uses dynamic color-coding to visually represent the strength of bullish or bearish trends. The candles and RSI plots change color based on the RSI values crossing critical thresholds, such as the 50 level, offering an intuitive way to recognize trend shifts. Traders can also configure alerts for specific RSI crossovers (e.g., above 50 or below 40), ensuring that they stay informed of potential trend reversals and significant market shifts in real-time.
The combination of volume sensitivity, adaptive smoothing, and dynamic trend visualization makes the DVRSI a robust and versatile tool for traders and investors looking to fine-tune their market analysis. By incorporating both price and volume data, this indicator delivers more precise signals, helping users make informed decisions with greater confidence.
Disclaimer:
The Dynamic Volume RSI is designed to enhance your market analysis but should not be used as a sole decision-making tool. Always consider multiple factors before making any trading or investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Bitcoin PivotFind [BTC Cycle Tops & Bottoms Finder]What is PivotFind?
PivotFind is a custom indicator designed to track 30+ data points of different nature (technical, sentiment, macro, on-chain), and across multiple timeframes (from 1D to 60D), to detect the market conditions that may indicate the formation of potential Cycle Tops and Bottoms .
PivotFind's goal is to help you navigate Bitcoin's price movements and key happenings over its approximately 4-year cycles to help you craft a mid-term investment plan focused on the larger swings, rather than the shorter-term fluctuations.
What Does PivotFind Show/Do?
Market Phase Assessment and Visualization:
- Uses color-coded backgrounds (green for bull, red for bear, yellow for trend reversal) to show the current (assessed) market phase. Note that the price line itself changes color to reinforce the current phase identification.
- Helps you understand if we're in a uptrend, downtrend, or potentially changing direction (reversal), often an open question for traders, with a mid-term horizon
Cycle Top and Bottom Warnings:
- Places red dots above the price line to warn of potential cycle peaks.
- Shows green dots below the price line to indicate possible cycle bottoms.
These markers appear when multiple indicators reach certain thresholds, which historically have often coincided with significant market pivots (from bull to bear, or viceversa). Clusters of tops and bottom warnings are expected to appear at truly pivotal moments.
Parabolic Growth Signals:
- Displays upward arrows when conditions suggest potential for the rapid price increases that historically anticipated blow-off tops
- These signals are based on a combination of technical indicators and market sentiment reaching certain thresholds.
Altcoin Season Indicators:
- Marks with white diamonds the conditions that have historically led to "altseasons" (i.e. Altcoins overperforming BTC's growth rate).
- Based on factors like Bitcoin dominance decrease and certain altcoin performance metrics.
Fibonacci Retracement Bands:
Plots long-term support and resistance zones based on Fibonacci retracement levels.
These bands are calculated from previous major market highs and lows and shed light on the nature of short-term retracements in the context of major trends.
Price Scenario
PivotFind also provides reference price levels for the upcoming halving cycle, including potential thresholds for increased market interest (retail FOMO), possible overvaluation, and theoretical cycle peak ranges. These projections are based on historical data and should be considered as points of reference rather than definitive predictions.
Comprehensive Data Tables:
Right-side Table: Shows current cycle stage, Bitcoin/Altcoin market dominance percentages, and evaluates key economic factors (like inflation and interest rates) for their potential impact.
Bottom Table: Displays real-time values of over 30 key indicators, including RSI, MVRV ratio, and Fear & Greed Index.
Alerts
PivotFind offers you the ability to set up custom alerts (via the standard TradingView alert functionality) or receive automated notifications for significant market events. Despite its sophisticated analysis, PivotFind is designed to be user-friendly, with pre-set parameters that don't require complex adjustments.
How Does It Work?
PivotFind analyzes over 30 different indicators across multiple timeframes (from 1 day to 60 days), grouped into four main categories:
1. Technical Analysis:
Uses standard indicators like RSI, Stochastic RSI, Williams %R, Elliot Oscillator, TDI, and mean reversion concepts.
Looks for divergences between price and multiple indicators (like OBV, MFI, CCI, RSI, SRSI, MACD and others) to spot potential reversals.
2. Market Sentiment:
Incorporates the Crypto Fear & Greed Index (0-100 scale).
Tracks social media trends and influencer follower counts as a gauge of public interest.
3. Macroeconomic Factors:
Monitors inflation rates, interest rates, US rate yields, and money supply (M2) figures.
Tracks the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and bond market health through ETFs like TLT and HYG.
4. On-Chain Analytics:
Analyzes MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio to spot potential over/undervaluation.
Examines NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) and active Bitcoin addresses.
PivotFind analyzes these indicators collectively, looking for significant correlations and confluences, to provide a view of the market's position within the 4-year cycle and spot the conditions for potential Cycle tops and bottoms (cycle pivots).
Who Is This For?
PivotFind may be particularly useful for:
- Long-term investors looking to optimize entry and exit points within the 4-year cycle
- Individuals who want to understand mid-term trends without engaging in daily analysis of multiple charts (due to lack of time and/or financial knowledge)
- Bitcoin Holders and miners planning their decisions around critical market pivot points
It's less suitable for scalpers, day-traders or those focused on short-term price movements.
Value Proposition
PivotFind simplifies market analysis by bringing together a wide range of indicators and data sources across different timeframes. It uses built-in logic to interpret these inputs within the context of Bitcoin's cycles, giving users an efficient way to spot potential major market shifts. This all-in-one approach helps make sense of complex market conditions and supports more informed decision-making.
Since Bitcoin’s broader cycle strongly influences the entire crypto market, PivotFind can also be useful for investors who are focused on Altcoins, not just Bitcoin.
Important Note (Disclaimer)
Past performance, and patterns, do not guarantee future results. Therefore, PivotFind should be used as one of many tools in your analysis. While the indicator provides a multi-faceted and multi-timeframe analysis of factors historically correlated with pivotal price shifts, it cannot predict future prices with certainty. It's a tool to help inform your decisions, not make them for you. Always conduct your own research and remember that all investments, especially in cryptocurrencies, involve risk.
Recommended Settings
PivotFinds works best on the 1D INDEX:BTCUSD chart (dark-mode, logarithmic scale).
This indicator is not publicly available and requires special access.
Rsi Long-Term Strategy [15min]Hello, I would like to present to you The "RSI Long-Term Strategy" for 15min tf
The "RSI Long-Term Strategy " is designed for traders who prefer a combination of momentum and trend-following techniques. The strategy focuses on entering long positions during significant market corrections within an overall uptrend, confirmed by both RSI and volume. The use of long-term SMAs ensures that trades are made in line with the broader market trend. The stop-loss feature provides risk management by limiting losses on trades that do not perform as expected. This strategy is particularly well-suited for longer-term traders who monitor 15-minute charts but look for substantial trend reversals or continuations.
Indicators and Parameters:
Relative Strength Index (RSI):
- The RSI is calculated using a 10-period length. It measures the magnitude of recent price changes to evaluate overbought or oversold conditions. The script defines oversold conditions when the RSI is at or below 30 and overbought conditions when the RSI is at or above 70.
Volume Condition:
-The strategy incorporates a volume condition where the current volume must be greater than 2.5 times the 20-period moving average of volume. This is used to confirm the strength of the price movement.
Simple Moving Averages (SMA):
- The strategy uses two SMAs: SMA1 with a length of 250 periods and SMA2 with a length of 500 periods. These SMAs help identify long-term trends and generate signals based on their crossover.
Strategy Logic:
Entry Logic:
A long position is initiated when all the following conditions are met:
The RSI indicates an oversold condition (RSI ≤ 30).
SMA1 is above SMA2, indicating an uptrend.
The volume condition is satisfied, confirming the strength of the signal.
Exit Logic:
The strategy closes the long position when SMA1 crosses under SMA2, signaling a potential end of the uptrend (a "Death Cross").
Stop-Loss:
A stop-loss is set at 5% below the entry price to manage risk and limit potential losses.
Buy and sell signals are highlighted with circles below or above bars:
Green Circle : Buy signal when RSI is oversold, SMA1 > SMA2, and the volume condition is met.
Red Circle : Sell signal when RSI is overbought, SMA1 < SMA2, and the volume condition is met.
Black Cross: "Death Cross" when SMA1 crosses under SMA2, indicating a potential bearish signal.
to determine the level of stop loss and target point I used a piece of code by RafaelZioni, here is the script from which a piece of code was taken
I hope the strategy will be helpful, as always, best regards and safe trades
;)
Project Monday Strategy [AlgoAI System]Overview
Project Monday is a sophisticated trading strategy designed for active market participants. This strategy can be used alongside other forms of technical analysis, providing traders with additional tools to enhance their market insights. While it offers a flexible approach for identifying and exploiting market inefficiencies, Project Monday does not fit every market condition and requires adjustments. Its core principles include technical analysis and risk management, all aimed at making informed trading decisions and managing risk effectively.
Features
Project Monday Strategy works in any market and includes many features:
Efficient Trading Presets: Offers ready-to-use presets that allow traders to start efficient trading with one click.
Confirmation Signals: Provides signals to help traders validate trends, emphasizing informed decision-making (not to be followed blindly).
Reversal Signals: Identifies signals to alert traders to potential reversals, encouraging careful analysis (not to be followed blindly).
Adaptability: Can be adjusted to fit different market conditions, ensuring ongoing effectiveness.
Multi-Market Application: Suitable for use across various asset classes including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies.
Integration: Can be used alongside other technical analysis tools for enhanced decision-making.
Position Sizing: Allows traders to determine optimal trade size using backtesting and trading performance dashboard.
Backtesting: Supports historical testing to refine and validate the strategy.
Continuous Monitoring: Includes features for ongoing performance evaluation and strategy adjustments.
Unique Project Monday Strategy Features on TradingView:
Adaptive Position Sizing: Dynamically adjusts the size of each position based on market conditions and predefined risk management criteria, ensuring optimal trade sizing and risk exposure.
Preliminary Position Opening: Allows traders to enter a position in anticipation of a signal confirmation, enabling them to capture early market movements and improve entry points.
Preliminary Position Closing: Enables traders to exit a position before a signal reversal, helping to lock in profits and minimize potential losses during volatile market conditions.
Adjusting Strategy Parameters:
Price Band Inputs:
Project Monday Strategy uses a set of configurable inputs to tailor its behavior according to the trader's preferences. The following are the key inputs for the price band calculations. Signals are not generated when the price remains within these bands.
“Length of Calculation” determines how many historical data points are used in the trend calculation. A shorter “Length of Calculation” will make the Price Band more responsive to recent price changes but may also increase the noise and the likelihood of false signals. A longer “Length of Calculation” will make the Price Band smoother, with less noise, but may cause more lag in reacting to price changes.
“Offset” determines the position of the Gaussian filter, which is used to weight the data points in the trend calculation. The offset is expressed as a fraction of the “Length of Calculation”, with a value between 0 and 1. A higher “Offset” will shift the Gaussian filter closer to the more recent data points, making the Price Band more responsive to recent price changes but potentially increasing noise. A lower “Offset” will shift the Gaussian filter closer to the centre of the window, resulting in a smoother Price Band but potentially introducing more lag.
“Sigma” refers to the standard deviation used in the Gaussian distribution function. This parameter determines the smoothness of the curve and the degree to which data points close to the centre of the “Length of Calculation” are weighted more heavily than those further away. A smaller “Sigma” will result in a narrower Gaussian filter, leading to a more responsive Price Band but with a higher chance of noise and false signals. A larger “Sigma” will result in a wider Gaussian filter, creating a smoother Price Band but with more lag.
Adjust the “Source” inputs to specify which type of price data should be used for strategy calculations and signal generation.
“Width of Band” input determines the multiplier for the band width. A higher value of “Width of Band” makes the price band wider, which generates fewer signals due to the lower probability of the price moving outside the band. Conversely, a lower multiplier makes the band narrower, generating more signals but also increasing the likelihood of false signals.
Direction input:
The Project Monday strategy includes an input to specify the direction of trades, allowing traders to control whether the strategy should consider long positions, short positions, or both. The following input parameter is used for this purpose:
This input parameter allows traders to define the type of positions the strategy will take. It has three options:
Only Long: The strategy will generate signals exclusively for buying or closing short positions, focusing on potential uptrends.
Only Short: The strategy will generate signals exclusively for selling or closing long positions, focusing on potential downtrends.
Both: The strategy will generate signals for both buying (long positions) and selling (short positions), allowing for a more comprehensive trading approach that captures opportunities in both rising and falling markets.
Signals Filter:
The Project Monday strategy includes inputs to filter signals based on higher timeframes and the length of the data used for filtering. These inputs help traders refine the strategy's performance by considering broader market trends and smoothing out short-term fluctuations.
Filter Timeframe input specifies the timeframe used for filtering signals. By choosing a higher timeframe, traders can filter out noise from shorter timeframes and focus on more significant trends. The options range from intraday minutes (e.g., 1, 5, 15 minutes) to daily (1D, 2D, etc.), weekly (1W, 2W, etc.), and monthly (1M) timeframes. This allows traders to align their strategy with their preferred trading horizon and market perspective.
Filter Length input defines the number of data points used for filtering signals on the selected timeframe. A longer filter length will smooth out the data more, helping to identify sustained trends and reduce the impact of short-term fluctuations. Conversely, a shorter filter length will make the filter more responsive to recent price changes, potentially generating more signals but also increasing sensitivity to market noise.
Adaptive Position Size:
The Project Monday strategy incorporates inputs for unique feature Adaptive Position Sizing (APS), which dynamically adjusts the size of trades based on market conditions and specified parameters. This feature helps optimize risk management and trading performance.
Enable Adaptive Position Size: Users can check or uncheck this box to enable or disable the Adaptive Position Size feature. When checked, the strategy dynamically adjusts position sizes based on the defined parameters. This allows traders to scale their positions according to market volatility and other factors, enhancing risk management and potentially improving returns. When unchecked, the strategy will not adjust position sizes adaptively, and positions will remain fixed as per other settings.
“Timeframe for Adaptive Position Size “input specifies the timeframe used for calculating the position size. Options range from intraday minutes (e.g., 30, 60 minutes) to daily (1D, 3D), weekly (1W), and monthly (1M) timeframes. Selecting an appropriate timeframe helps align position sizing calculations with the trader’s overall strategy and market perspective, ensuring that position sizes are adjusted based on relevant market data.
“APS Length” input defines the number of data points used to calculate the adaptive position size. A longer APS length will result in higher position sizes. Conversely, a shorter APS length will result in smaller position sizes.
Anticipatory Trading:
Project Monday Strategy includes inputs for unique feature Anticipatory Trading, allowing traders to open and close positions preliminarily based on certain conditions. This feature aims to provide an edge by taking action before traditional signals confirm.
Enable Preliminary Position Opening: Users can check or uncheck this box to enable or disable Preliminary Position Opening. When enabled, the strategy will open positions based on preliminary conditions before the standard signals are confirmed. This can help traders capitalize on early trend movements and potentially gain a better entry point.
Enable Preliminary Position Closing: Users can check or uncheck this box to enable or disable Preliminary Position Closing. When enabled, the strategy will close positions based on preliminary conditions before the standard exit signals are confirmed. This can help traders lock in profits or limit losses by exiting positions at the early signs of trend reversals.
“Position Size in %” input specifies the position size as a percentage of the trading capital. By setting this value, traders can control the amount of capital allocated to each trade. For example, a risk value of 40% means that 40% of the available trading capital will be used for each anticipatory trade. This helps in managing risk and ensuring that the position size aligns with the trader's risk tolerance and overall strategy.
Usage:
Signal Generation
Long signal indicates a potential uptrend, suggesting either buying or closing a short position. Short signal indicates a potential downtrend, suggesting either selling or closing a long position. Signals are generated on your chart when the price moves beyond a calculated price band based on the current trend.
Signal Filtering
The strategy includes a filtering mechanism based on the current or another timeframe. Filtering works best with higher timeframes. This component calculates the trend on a higher timeframe and predicts the trend, ensuring trades on the current timeframe are only opened if they align with the higher timeframe trend. Setting the right filter timeframe is crucial for obtaining the best signals.
Position Direction
Users can choose the direction of positions to open via the settings box. Options include only long positions, only short positions, or both.
Adaptive Position Size (APS)
Users can enable the Adaptive Position Size feature to adjust position sizes based on trend strength. The strategy evaluates the strength of the current trend based on a higher timeframe. The stronger the trend, the larger the position size for opening a position.
Anticipatory Trading
Users can activate this unique feature to enhance trading decisions. The strategy assesses the likelihood of receiving a main signal. If the opportunity appears strong, it opens a partial position, as specified in the settings box. As the probability of the signal strengthens, the strategy gradually increases the position size.
Exit Strategy
The strategy exits positions based on receiving a reverse signal. Positions opened through “Anticipatory trading” are exited incrementally as each preliminary signal reverses.
By following these steps, traders can implement the strategy to navigate various market scenarios, manage risk, and adjust trading performance over time. Adjusting parameters and monitoring signals diligently are key to adapting the strategy to individual trading styles and market conditions.
You will get
By purchasing the Project Monday strategy, you not only gain access to a cutting-edge system but also receive ready-to-use presets designed to help you start trading immediately and achieve optimal results. Additionally, you benefit from comprehensive support and the option to request custom presets for your desired financial instruments through our dedicated support team, ensuring you have the tools and assistance needed for successful trading.
Risk Disclaimer
This information is not a personalized investment recommendation, and the financial instruments or transactions mentioned in it may not be appropriate for your financial situation, investment objective(s), risk tolerance, and/or expected return. AlgoAI shall not be liable for any losses incurred in the event of transactions or investments in financial instruments mentioned in this information.
SOL & BTC EMA with BTC/SOL Price Difference % and BTC Dom EMAThis script is designed to provide traders with a comprehensive analysis of Solana (SOL) and Bitcoin (BTC) by incorporating Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) and price difference percentages. It also includes the BTC Dominance EMA to offer insights into the overall market dominance of Bitcoin.
Features:
SOL EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for Solana (SOL) based on a customizable period length.
BTC EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for Bitcoin (BTC) based on a customizable period length.
BTC Dominance EMA: Plots the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for BTC Dominance, which helps in understanding Bitcoin's market share relative to other cryptocurrencies.
BTC/SOL Price Difference %: Calculates and plots the percentage difference between BTC and SOL prices, adjusted for their respective EMAs. This helps in identifying relative strength or weakness between the two assets.
Background Highlight: Colors the background to visually indicate whether the BTC/SOL price difference percentage is positive (green) or negative (red), aiding in quick decision-making.
Inputs:
SOL Ticker: Symbol for Solana (default: BINANCE
).
BTC Ticker: Symbol for Bitcoin (default: BINANCE
).
BTC Dominance Ticker: Symbol for Bitcoin Dominance (default: CRYPTOCAP
.D).
EMA Length: The length of the EMA (default: 20 periods).
Usage:
This script is intended for traders looking to analyze the relationship between SOL and BTC, using EMAs to smooth out price data and highlight trends. The BTC/SOL price difference percentage can help traders identify potential trading opportunities based on the relative movements of SOL and BTC.
Note: Leverage trading involves significant risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Ensure you have a good understanding of the market conditions and employ proper risk management techniques.
Multi Asset Histogram [ChartPrime]Multi Asset Histogram Indicator
Overview:
The "Multi Asset Histogram" indicator provides a comprehensive visualization of the performance of multiple assets relative to each other. By calculating a score for each asset and displaying it in a histogram format, this indicator helps traders quickly identify the trends, dominant asset and the average performance of the assets in the selected group.
Key Features:
◆ Multi-Asset Score Calculation:
The indicator calculates a trend score for each selected asset based on the price source (e.g., hl2).
The trend score is determined by comparing the current price to the prices over the past bars back defined by user, adding or subtracting points based on whether the current price is higher or lower than previous prices.
// Score Function
trscore(src) =>
total = 0.0
for i = 1 to 50
total += (src >= nz(src ) ? 1 : -1)
total
◆ Flexible Symbol Input:
Traders can input up to 10 different symbols (e.g., BTCUSD, ETHUSD, etc.) to be included in the histogram analysis.
◆ Dynamic Visualization:
A histogram is plotted for each asset, with bars colored based on the score, providing a clear visual representation of the relative performance.
Color gradients from red to aqua indicate the performance, with red representing negative scores and aqua representing positive scores.
◆ Adaptive Histogram Lines:
The width and placement of histogram lines adapt based on the calculated scores, ensuring clear visualization regardless of the values.
Dashed lines represent the mean score of all assets, helping traders identify the overall market trend.
◆Detailed Labels and Values:
Labels are placed on the histogram to display the exact score for each asset.
Mean value and zero line labels provide additional context for the overall performance.
◆ Visual Scaling Lines:
Zero line and mean line are clearly marked, helping traders understand the distribution and scale of scores.
Scales on the left and right of the histogram indicate the performance range.
◆ Informative Table:
A table is displayed on the chart, showing the dominant asset (the one with the highest score) and the mean score of all assets.
The table updates dynamically to reflect real-time changes in asset performance.
◆ Settings:
Length: The value of number bars back is greater or less than the current value of the source
Source: The price source to be used for score calculation (e.g., hl2).
Symbols: Up to 10 different asset symbols can be input for analysis.
Usage Notes:
This indicator is useful for traders who monitor multiple assets simultaneously and need a quick visual reference to identify the strongest and weakest performers.
The color coding and dynamic labels make it easy to interpret the relative performance and make informed trading decisions.
This indicator is designed to enhance multi-asset analysis by providing a clear, visual representation of each asset's performance relative to the others, making it easier to identify trends and dominant assets in the market.
Funding Rate [CryptoSea]The Funding Rate Indicator by is a comprehensive tool designed to analyze funding rates across multiple cryptocurrency exchanges. This indicator is essential for traders who want to monitor funding rates and their impact on market trends.
Key Features
Exchange Coverage: Includes data from major exchanges such as Binance, Bitmex, Bybit, HTX, Kraken, OKX, Bitstamp, and Coinbase.
Perpetual Futures and Spot Markets: Fetches and analyzes pricing data from both perpetual futures and spot markets to provide a holistic view.
Smoothing and Customization: Allows users to smooth funding rates using a moving average, with customizable MA lengths for tailored analysis.
Dynamic Candle Coloring: Option to color candles based on trading conditions, enhancing visual analysis.
In the example below, the indicator shows how the funding rate shifts with market conditions, providing clear visual cues for bullish and bearish trends.
How it Works
Data Integration: Uses a secure security fetching function to retrieve pricing data while preventing look-ahead bias, ensuring accurate and reliable information.
TWAP Calculation: Computes Time-Weighted Average Prices (TWAP) for both perpetual futures and spot prices, forming the basis for funding rate calculations.
Funding Rate Calculation: Determines the raw funding rate by comparing TWAPs of perpetual futures and spot prices, then applies smoothing to highlight significant trends.
Color Coding: Highlights the funding rate with distinct colors (bullish and bearish), making it easier to interpret market conditions at a glance.
In the example below, the indicator effectively differentiates between bullish and bearish funding rates, aiding traders in making informed decisions based on current market dynamics.
Application
Market Analysis: Enables traders to analyze the impact of funding rates on market trends, facilitating more strategic decision-making.
Trend Identification: Assists in identifying potential market reversals by monitoring shifts in funding rates.
Customizable Settings: Provides extensive input settings for exchange selection, MA length, and candle coloring, allowing for personalized analysis.
The Funding Rate Indicator by is a powerful addition to any trader's toolkit, offering detailed insights into funding rates across multiple exchanges to navigate the cryptocurrency market effectively.
RSI Screener / Heatmap - By LeviathanThis script allows you to quickly scan the market by displaying the RSI values of up to 280 tickers at once and visualizing them in an easy-to-understand format using labels with heatmap coloring.
📊 Source
The script can display the RSI from a custom timeframe (MTF) and custom length for the following data:
- Price
- OBV (On Balance Volume)
- Open Interest (for crypto tickers)
📋 Ticker Selection
This script uses a different approach for selecting tickers. Instead of inputting them one by one via input.symbol(), you can now copy-paste or edit a list of tickers in the text area window. This approach allows users to easily exchange ticker lists between each other and, for example, create multiple lists of tickers by sector, market cap, etc., and easily input them into the script. Full credit to @allanster for his functions for extracting tickers from the text. Users can switch between 7 groups of 40 tickers each, totaling 280 tickers.
🖥️ Display Types
- Screener with Labels: Each ticker has its own color-coded label located at its RSI value.
- Group Average RSI: A standard RSI plot that displays the average RSI of all tickers in the group.
- RSI Heatmap (coming soon): Color-coded rows displaying current and historical values of tickers.
- RSI Divergence Heatmap (coming soon): Color-coded rows displaying current and historical regular/hidden bullish/bearish divergences for tickers.
🎨 Appearance
Appearance is fully customizable via user inputs, allowing you to change heatmap/gradient colors, zone coloring, and more.
Multi BTC Rolling APY Calculator [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Multi BTC Rolling APY Calculator " is an innovative Pine Script indicator tailored for cryptocurrency traders, providing insights into arbitrage opportunities and market sentiment by calculating the Rolling Annual Percentage Yield (APY) between spot and futures prices of Bitcoin. Unlike traditional APY calculators, this tool specializes in capturing the nuances of the highly volatile and less efficient cryptocurrency markets. Rolling APY is derived from traditional market basis arbitrage but adapted to highlight significant discrepancies that frequently occur between derivative and underlying asset prices in crypto markets.
Historical backtesting has revealed that Bitcoin's Rolling APY can serve as a robust indicator of market sentiment:
- Below 0%: Often indicates panic or 'end-of-world' scenarios.
- 0-5%: Signifies extreme market fear.
- 5-10%: Reflects a calm market environment.
- 10-15%: Suggests a moderately warm market.
- 15-20%: Indicates an overheated market.
- **Above 20%: Signals FOMO (fear of missing out).
This nuanced understanding of Rolling APY helps investors not only spot arbitrage opportunities but also gauge the emotional state of the market, providing a dual function that enhances trading strategies in the volatile realm of cryptocurrencies.
█ Strategy: How It Works – Detailed Explanation
🔶 Rolling APY Calculation
The Rolling APY calculation is crucial for understanding the annualized potential returns from arbitrage strategies, given by the formula:
APY = ((Future Price - Spot Price) / Spot Price) * (365 / Days Until Expiration) * 100
This annualizes the observed premium or discount on futures contracts relative to the spot price, providing a year-over-year expectation of returns if one were to engage in arbitrage over the specified period.
🔶 Days Calculation
The accuracy of APY is contingent upon the precise calculation of days until each contract expires:
Days = (Expiration Timestamp - Current Timestamp) / 86400000
This calculation ensures the APY reflects true market dynamics for each futures contract's duration.
█ Trade Direction
While this tool does not provide direct trading signals, it informs traders about potential arbitrage opportunities and the prevailing market sentiment. Traders can leverage this data to make strategic decisions, aligning long or short positions with the anticipated market movements and arbitrage conditions.
█ Usage
By inputting specific parameters related to their market analysis, traders can monitor discrepancies in Bitcoin’s pricing across different timelines, which is especially beneficial for those involved in derivatives trading, arbitrage, and sentiment analysis.
█ Default Settings
- Resolution: Controls the frequency of data (default is daily).
- Show numbers in annual: Determines whether APY is displayed on an annual basis.
- Base Symbol and Future Symbols: Specify the spot and futures markets for analysis.
LONG/SHORT PIFRO que esse indicador faz?
Esse indicador tem o objetivo de plotar o valor de Premium Index e Funding Rate de qualquer token que seja negociado nos futuros da Binance. Basta acessar o token, por exemplo "BTCUSDT" ou "BTCUSDT.P" e o indicador funcionará de forma automática.
A ideia de leitura desse indicador é verificar as maiores oscilações e aliar a analise técnica para tomar uma decisão de compra ou venda.
What does this indicator do?
This indicator aims to plot the Premium Index and Funding Rate value of any token that is traded on Binance futures. Just access the token, for example "BTCUSDT" or "BTCUSDT.P" and the indicator will work automatically.
The idea of reading this indicator is to check the biggest fluctuations and combine technical analysis to make a buy or sell decision.
=============
O que é o Índice Bitcoin Premium?
O índice Bitcoin Premium rastreia o prêmio ou desconto dos contratos perpétuos de Bitcoin em relação ao preço do índice à vista por minuto. O Índice de prêmio é baseado na diferença de preço entre o último preço negociado de um contrato perpétuo e o preço do índice à vista. O preço do índice à vista é um índice à vista ponderado pelo volume, o que significa um preço médio obtido em várias bolsas.
Basicamente, ele mostra para cada criptomoeda se o mercado à vista está negociando acima ou abaixo do contrato perpétuo. O valor pode ser superior, inferior ou igual a 0. Quando o valor está acima de 0, o contrato perpétuo está sendo negociado acima do “preço de referência”, quando o valor está abaixo de 0, o índice à vista está negociando acima do contrato perpétuo .
Como ler o índice premium do Bitcoin?
Existem várias maneiras de visualizar o Índice Bitcoin Premium. Você pode observar o valor (acima ou abaixo de 0) semelhante às taxas de financiamento ou pode observar certos extremos. Esta informação pode ser muito útil na sua estratégia de negociação. O gráfico é exibido como um gráfico de velas com um corpo e o pavio (também conhecido como sombra) da vela. O pavio pode mostrar um certo extremo, enquanto o fechamento da vela mostra o valor.
O valor acima ou abaixo de 0 mostra se o preço dos contratos perpétuos de Bitcoin está sendo negociado acima ou abaixo do índice à vista. Quando o índice à vista está sendo negociado em alta, o prêmio cai abaixo de 0 e fica negativo, geralmente, isso é conhecido como um sinal de alta. Quando o valor está sendo negociado acima de 0 e fica positivo, significa que o contrato perpétuo do Bitcoin está sendo negociado acima do índice à vista, geralmente isso é visto como um sinal de baixa.
Os mercados são um reflexo das emoções humanas e muitas vezes, antes que o preço possa mudar, vemos um certo extremo nas emoções. Esse extremo pode ser identificado no Índice Premium. Quando temos um sinal extremo no Índice Bitcoin Premium as chances de uma reversão aumentam. Esta pode ser uma reversão de curto prazo ou uma reversão maior.
Resumindo, um prêmio de índice à vista é geralmente de alta e um prêmio de derivativos é geralmente um sinal de baixa.
Mas, tal como acontece com as taxas de financiamento, por vezes demora um pouco para que essa pressão de compra ou venda seja expressa no preço e, portanto, é sempre importante combinar esta métrica com outras métricas, como a estrutura de preços.
Por exemplo, aqui na imagem abaixo podemos ver uma leitura extrema no índice premium do Bitcoin. Embora várias horas após o evento ainda vejamos a subida do preço, vemos que está bastante perto de uma reversão e, eventualmente, o preço muda.
Descrição por whaleportal
What is the Bitcoin Premium Index?
The Bitcoin Premium index tracks the premium or discount of Bitcoin perpetual contracts relative to the spot index price per minute. The premium Index is based on the difference in price between the last traded price of a perpetual contract and the spot index price. The spot index price is a volume- weighted spot index, which means an average price taken from multiple exchanges.
Basically, it shows you for each cryptocurrency whether the spot market is trading higher or lower than the perpetual contract. The value can either be above, below, or equal to 0. When the value is above 0, the perpetual contract is trading higher than the “mark price”, when the value is below 0 the spot index is trading higher than the perpetual contract.
How to read the Bitcoin premium index?
There are multiple ways to view the Bitcoin Premium Index. You can either look at the value (above or below 0) similar to the funding rates or you can look at certain extremes. This information can be very helpful in your trading strategy. The chart is displayed as a candlestick chart with a body and the wick (also known as shadow) of the candle. The wick can show a certain extreme, while the close of the candle shows the value.
The value, either above or below 0 shows whether the price of Bitcoin perpetual contracts is trading higher or lower than the spot index. When the spot index is trading higher, the premium will go below 0 and turns negative, usually, this is known to be a bullish sign. When the value is trading higher than 0 and turns positive, it means the Bitcoin perpetual contract is trading higher than the spot index, usually, this is seen as a bearish signal.
The markets are a reflection of human emotions and often before the price can shift we are seeing a certain extreme in emotions. That extreme can be spotted in the Premium Index. When we have an extreme signal in the Bitcoin Premium Index the chances of a reversal increase. This can be either a short-term reversal or a bigger reversal.
In short, a spot index premium is usually bullish and a derivatives premium is usually a bearish signal.
But as with funding rates, it sometimes takes a moment for that buying or selling pressure to be expressed in the price and therefore it is always important to combine this metric with other metrics like the price structure.
For example, here in the image below we can see an extreme reading in the premium index on Bitcoin. Although in several hours after the event we still see the price climb, we do see that it’s rather close to a reversal and eventually the price turns around.
Description by whaleportal
Calculus Free Trend Strategy for Crypto & StocksObjective :
The Correlation Channel Trading Strategy is designed to identify potential entry points based on the relationship between price movements and a correlation channel. The strategy aims to capture trends within the channel while managing risk effectively.
Parameters :
Length: Determines the period for calculating moving averages and the true range, influencing the sensitivity of the strategy to price movements.
Multiplier: Adjusts the width of the correlation channel, providing flexibility to adapt to different market conditions.
Inputs :
Asset Symbol: Allows users to specify the financial instrument for analysis.
Timeframe: Defines the timeframe for data aggregation, enabling customization based on trading preferences.
Plot Correlation Channel: Optional input to visualize the correlation channel on the price chart.
Methodology :
Data Acquisition: The strategy fetches OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) data for the specified asset and timeframe. In this case we use COINBASE:BTCUSD
Calculation of Correlation Channel: It computes the squared values for OHLC data, calculates the average value (x), and then calculates the square root of x to derive the source value. Additionally, it calculates the True Range as the difference between high and low prices.
Moving Averages: The strategy calculates moving averages (MA) for the source value and the True Range, which form the basis for defining the correlation channel.
Upper and Lower Bands: Using the MA and True Range, the strategy computes upper and lower bands of the correlation channel, with the width determined by the multiplier.
Entry Conditions: Long positions are initiated when the price crosses above the upper band, signaling potential overbought conditions. Short positions are initiated when the price crosses below the lower band, indicating potential oversold conditions.
Exit Conditions: Stop-loss mechanisms are incorporated directly into the entry conditions to manage risk. Long positions are exited if the price falls below a predefined stop-loss level, while short positions are exited if the price rises above the stop-loss level.
Strategy Approach: The strategy aims to capitalize on trends within the correlation channel, leveraging systematic entry signals while actively managing risk through stop-loss orders.
Backtest Details : For the purpose of this test I used the entire data available for BTCUSD Coinbase, with 10% of capital allocation and 0.1% comission for entry/exit(0.2% total). Can be also used with other both directly correlated with current settings of BTC or with new ones
Advantages :
Provides a systematic approach to trading based on quantifiable criteria.
Offers flexibility through customizable parameters to adapt to various market conditions.
Integrates risk management through predefined stop-loss mechanisms.
Limitations :
Relies on historical price data and technical indicators, which may not always accurately predict future price movements.
May generate false signals during periods of low volatility or erratic price behavior.
Requires continuous monitoring and adjustment of parameters to maintain effectiveness.
Conclusion :
The Correlation Channel Trading Strategy offers traders a structured framework for identifying potential entry points within a defined price channel. By leveraging moving averages and true range calculations, the strategy aims to capture trends while minimizing risk through stop-loss mechanisms. While no strategy can guarantee success in all market conditions, the Correlation Channel Trading Strategy provides a systematic approach to trading that can enhance decision-making and risk management for traders.
Swing Sniper by Republic of TradersSwing Sniper: A Comprehensive Market Reversal Indicator
Description:
Swing Sniper, developed by Republic of Traders, is a sophisticated trading indicator designed for traders who require precise market reversal signals. It performs optimally across all trading instruments and timeframes, offering both reliability and precision.
How It Works:
Swing Sniper employs a complex signal generation mechanism that activates only when six distinct conditions align within a specific timeframe. This includes:
A modified Commodity Channel Index (CCI) that helps identify short-term price fluctuations.
A Relative Momentum Index (RMI) utilized for recognizing long-term market trends.
A Supertrend indicator serves as a dynamic trend filter.
Several custom parameters that enhance signal reliability.
These components work synergistically to ensure that each trading signal is robust and well-founded. The indicator specializes in capturing significant market reversals by requiring a confirmation of trend reversal through a break and close above or below a previous supply/demand zone.
Usage Instructions:
Upon a valid signal, Swing Sniper advises traders that a potential market reversal has occurred and an entry may be considered in the direction of the new trend. Traders are recommended to set alerts for "once per candle close," allowing them to monitor multiple charts and timeframes simultaneously. Proper risk management is encouraged by placing stop losses just below or above the previous swing low or high and the signal candle's low or high. Take profits should similarly be set to capitalize on potential swings.
Why Choose Swing Sniper:
Swing Sniper is designed not only as a tool for generating entries but as a strategic component of your trading methodology. It brings a clear, analytical approach to navigating the markets, supported by detailed and logical indicator collaboration. This ensures users understand the underlying mechanics and can apply the tool effectively within their trading strategy.
Commitment to Originality and Utility:
Swing Sniper is a unique creation, adhering to TradingView’s standards by offering actionable insights that are distinct from other indicators available on the platform. It is meticulously crafted, featuring an original combination of technical analysis tools tailored to enhance market reversal detection.
Disclaimer:
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always exercise due diligence and consider market conditions when trading.
Visualization Aid:
The accompanying chart visualization helps users identify signal examples, marked with a red triangle for market reversals short and a green triangle for market reversals long.
Embrace the strategic depth and precision of Swing Sniper and enhance your trading confidence and accuracy in financial markets.
Blockcircle Hard Forks & HalvingsThe Hard Forks & Halvings indicator simply displays the dates of system wide network upgrades being completed for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Those upgrades are called hard forks and halvings.
In the screenshot you will see that March 13 marked for the system wide Ethereum network upgrade called "ETH Dencun", it is marked in blue.
HOW IT WORKS?
For example:
Bitcoin Halvings: Nov 28, 2012, Jul 9, 2016, May 11, 2020, etc..
Bitcoin Hard Forks: Aug 2015, Feb 2016, Mar 2016, Aug 2017, etc..
Ethereum Hard Forks: Jul 30, 2015, Mar 14, 2016, Mar 13, 2024, etc...
It's conveniently an indicator so it allows you to overlay it on top of any price chart, e.g. BTC/USD, ETH/USD, ARB/USD, MATIC/USD, OP/USD, RONIN/USD, STRK/USD, etc...so you can measure the exact impact each individual significant event had on the underlying asset price.
HOW TO USE IT?
You can apply this to examine price impact on competing Layer 1s and complimentary and key beneficiary Layer 2s like ARB/OP/MATIC/STRK, which are worth monitoring closely in light of the recent Ethereum Hard Fork Dencun Upgrade and Bitcoin Halving on April 18-19.
WHAT MAKES IT' USEFUL AND ORIGINAL?
I could not find an indicator that does anything remotely close to this, so decided to build it as it's so useful to track these key dates. You can plan ahead!
One of the key benefits is a sharp reduction in Layer 2 transaction processing fees, and will lay the ground work required for "Data Blobs", think of it as a form of transaction optimization to improve scalability for the entire Ethereum ecosystem.
This will strongly accelerate staking and retaking efforts. This indicator has already helped so much in being to forecast that we were going to experience a bit of a pull back post Dencun upgrade, because historically, we've generally reverted back to the mean post upgrade.
If you have any questions about it, please post it them! Thank you
Bitcoin Momentum StrategyThis is a very simple long-only strategy I've used since December 2022 to manage my Bitcoin position.
I'm sharing it as an open-source script for other traders to learn from the code and adapt it to their liking if they find the system concept interesting.
General Overview
Always do your own research and backtesting - this script is not intended to be traded blindly (no script should be) and I've done limited testing on other markets beyond Ethereum and BTC, it's just a template to tweak and play with and make into one's own.
The results shown in the strategy tester are from Bitcoin's inception so as to get a large sample size of trades, and potential returns have diminished significantly as BTC has grown to become a mega cap asset, but the script includes a date filter for backtesting and it has still performed solidly in recent years (speaking from personal experience using it myself - DYOR with the date filter).
The main advantage of this system in my opinion is in limiting the max drawdown significantly versus buy & hodl. Theoretically much better returns can be made by just holding, but that's also a good way to lose 70%+ of your capital in the inevitable bear markets (also speaking from experience).
In saying all of that, the future is fundamentally unknowable and past results in no way guarantee future performance.
System Concept:
Capture as much Bitcoin upside volatility as possible while side-stepping downside volatility as quickly as possible.
The system uses a simple but clever momentum-style trailing stop technique I learned from one of my trading mentors who uses this approach on momentum/trend-following stock market systems.
Basically, the system "ratchets" up the stop-loss to be much tighter during high bearish volatility to protect open profits from downside moves, but loosens the stop loss during sustained bullish momentum to let the position ride.
It is invested most of the time, unless BTC is trading below its 20-week EMA in which case it stays in cash/USDT to avoid holding through bear markets. It only trades one position (no pyramiding) and does not trade short, but can easily be tweaked to do whatever you like if you know what you're doing in Pine.
Default parameters:
HTF: Weekly Chart
EMA: 20-Period
ATR: 5-period
Bar Lookback: 7
Entry Rule #1:
Bitcoin's current price must be trading above its higher-timeframe EMA (Weekly 20 EMA).
Entry Rule #2:
Bitcoin must not be in 'caution' condition (no large bearish volatility swings recently).
Enter at next bar's open if conditions are met and we are not already involved in a trade.
"Caution" Condition:
Defined as true if BTC's recent 7-bar swing high minus current bar's low is > 1.5x ATR, or Daily close < Daily 20-EMA.
Trailing Stop:
Stop is trailed 1 ATR from recent swing high, or 20% of ATR if in caution condition (ie. 0.2 ATR).
Exit on next bar open upon a close below stop loss.
I typically use a limit order to open & exit trades as close to the open price as possible to reduce slippage, but the strategy script uses market orders.
I've never had any issues getting filled on limit orders close to the market price with BTC on the Daily timeframe, but if the exchange has relatively low slippage I've found market orders work fine too without much impact on the results particularly since BTC has consistently remained above $20k and highly liquid.
Cost of Trading:
The script uses no leverage and a default total round-trip commission of 0.3% which is what I pay on my exchange based on their tier structure, but this can vary widely from exchange to exchange and higher commission fees will have a significantly negative impact on realized gains so make sure to always input the correct theoretical commission cost when backtesting any script.
Static slippage is difficult to estimate in the strategy tester given the wide range of prices & liquidity BTC has experienced over the years and it largely depends on position size, I set it to 150 points per buy or sell as BTC is currently very liquid on the exchange I trade and I use limit orders where possible to enter/exit positions as close as possible to the market's open price as it significantly limits my slippage.
But again, this can vary a lot from exchange to exchange (for better or worse) and if BTC volatility is high at the time of execution this can have a negative impact on slippage and therefore real performance, so make sure to adjust it according to your exchange's tendencies.
Tax considerations should also be made based on short-term trade frequency if crypto profits are treated as a CGT event in your region.
Summary:
A simple, but effective and fairly robust system that achieves the goals I set for it.
From my preliminary testing it appears it may also work on altcoins but it might need a bit of tweaking/loosening with the trailing stop distance as the default parameters are designed to work with Bitcoin which obviously behaves very differently to smaller cap assets.
Good luck out there!
Bitcoin Leverage Sentiment - Strategy [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Bitcoin Leverage Sentiment - Strategy " represents a novel approach in the realm of cryptocurrency trading by focusing on sentiment analysis through leveraged positions in Bitcoin. Unlike traditional strategies that primarily rely on price action or technical indicators, this strategy leverages the power of Z-Score analysis to gauge market sentiment by examining the ratio of leveraged long to short positions. By assessing how far the current sentiment deviates from the historical norm, it provides a unique lens to spot potential reversals or continuation in market trends, making it an innovative tool for traders who wish to incorporate market psychology into their trading arsenal.
BTC 4h L/S Performance
local
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Data Collection and Ratio Calculation
Firstly, the strategy acquires data on leveraged long (**`priceLongs`**) and short positions (**`priceShorts`**) for Bitcoin. The primary metric of interest is the ratio of long positions relative to the total of both long and short positions:
BTC Ratio=priceLongs / (priceLongs+priceShorts)
This ratio reflects the prevailing market sentiment, where values closer to 1 indicate a bullish sentiment (dominance of long positions), and values closer to 0 suggest bearish sentiment (prevalence of short positions).
🔶 Z-Score Calculation
The Z-Score is then calculated to standardize the BTC Ratio, allowing for comparison across different time periods. The Z-Score formula is:
Z = (X - μ) / σ
Where:
- X is the current BTC Ratio.
- μ is the mean of the BTC Ratio over a specified period (**`zScoreCalculationPeriod`**).
- σ is the standard deviation of the BTC Ratio over the same period.
The Z-Score helps quantify how far the current sentiment deviates from the historical norm, with high positive values indicating extreme bullish sentiment and high negative values signaling extreme bearish sentiment.
🔶 Signal Generation: Trading signals are derived from the Z-Score as follows:
Long Entry Signal: Occurs when the BTC Ratio Z-Score crosses above the thresholdLongEntry, suggesting bullish sentiment.
- Condition for Long Entry = BTC Ratio Z-Score > thresholdLongEntry
Long Exit/Short Entry Signal: Triggered when the BTC Ratio Z-Score drops below thresholdLongExit for exiting longs or below thresholdShortEntry for entering shorts, indicating a shift to bearish sentiment.
- Condition for Long Exit/Short Entry = BTC Ratio Z-Score < thresholdLongExit or BTC Ratio Z-Score < thresholdShortEntry
Short Exit Signal: Happens when the BTC Ratio Z-Score exceeds the thresholdShortExit, hinting at reducing bearish sentiment and a potential switch to bullish conditions.
- Condition for Short Exit = BTC Ratio Z-Score > thresholdShortExit
🔶Implementation and Visualization: The strategy applies these conditions for trade management, aligning with the selected trade direction. It visualizes the BTC Ratio Z-Score with horizontal lines at entry and exit thresholds, illustrating the current sentiment against historical norms.
█ Trade Direction
The strategy offers flexibility in trade direction, allowing users to choose between long, short, or both, depending on their market outlook and risk tolerance. This adaptability ensures that traders can align the strategy with their individual trading style and market conditions.
█ Usage
To employ this strategy effectively:
1. Customization: Begin by setting the trade direction and adjusting the Z-Score calculation period and entry/exit thresholds to match your trading preferences.
2. Observation: Monitor the Z-Score and its moving average for potential trading signals. Look for crossover events relative to the predefined thresholds to identify entry and exit points.
3. Confirmation: Consider using additional analysis or indicators for signal confirmation, ensuring a comprehensive approach to decision-making.
█ Default Settings
- Trade Direction: Determines if the strategy engages in long, short, or both types of trades, impacting its adaptability to market conditions.
- Timeframe Input: Influences signal frequency and sensitivity, affecting the strategy's responsiveness to market dynamics.
- Z-Score Calculation Period: Affects the strategy’s sensitivity to market changes, with longer periods smoothing data and shorter periods increasing responsiveness.
- Entry and Exit Thresholds: Set the Z-Score levels for initiating or exiting trades, balancing between capturing opportunities and minimizing false signals.
- Impact of Default Settings: Provides a balanced approach to leverage sentiment trading, with adjustments needed to optimize performance across various market conditions.
Neural Network Synthesis: Trend and Valuation [QuantraSystems]Neural Network Synthesis - Trend and Valuation
Introduction
The Neural Network Synthesis (𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱) indicator is an innovative technical analysis tool which leverages neural network concepts to synthesize market trend and valuation insights.
This indicator uses a bespoke neural network model to process various technical indicator inputs, providing an improved view of market momentum and perceived value.
Legend
The main visual component of the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator is the Neural Synthesis Line , which dynamically oscillates within the valuation chart, categorizing market conditions as both under or overvalued and trending up or down.
The synthesis line coloring can be set to trend analysis or valuation modes , which can be reflected in the bar coloring.
The sine wave valuation chart oscillates around a central, volatility normalized ‘fair value’ line, visually conveying the natural rhythm and cyclical nature of asset markets.
The positioning of the sine wave in relation to the central line can help traders to visualize transitions from one market phase to another - such as from an undervalued phase to fair value or an overvalued phase.
Case Study 1
The asset in question experiences a sharp, inefficient move upwards. Such movements suggest an overextension of price, and mean reversion is typically expected.
Here, a short position was initiated, but only after the Neural Synthesis line confirmed a negative trend - to mitigate the risk of shorting into a continuing uptrend.
Two take-profit levels were set:
The midline or ‘fair value’ line.
The lower boundary of the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicators valuation chart.
Although mean-reversion trades are typically closed when price returns to the mean, under circumstances of extreme overextension price often overcorrects from an overbought condition to an oversold condition.
Case Study 2
In the above study, the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator is applied to the 1 Week Bitcoin chart in order to inform long term investment decisions.
Accumulation Zones - Investors can choose to dollar cost average (DCA) into long term positions when the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicates undervaluation
Distribution Zones - Conversely, when overvalued conditions are indicated, investors are able to incrementally sell holdings expecting the market peak to form around the distribution phase.
Note - It is prudent to pay close attention to any change in trend conditions when the market is in an accumulation/distribution phase, as this can increase the likelihood of a full-cycle market peak forming.
In summary, the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator is also an effective tool for long term investing, especially for assets like Bitcoin which exhibit prolonged bull and bear cycles.
Special Note
It is prudent to note that because markets often undergo phases of extreme speculation, an asset's price can remain over or undervalued for long periods of time, defying mean-reversion expectations. In these scenarios it is important to use other forms of analysis in confluence, such as the trending component of the 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator to help inform trading decisions.
A special feature of Quantra’s indicators is that they are probabilistically built - therefore they work well as confluence and can easily be stacked to increase signal accuracy.
Example Settings
As used above.
Swing Trading
Smooth Length = 150
Timeframe = 12h
Long Term Investing
Smooth Length = 30
Timeframe = 1W
Methodology
The 𝓝𝓝𝒮𝔂𝓷𝓽𝓱 indicator draws upon the foundational principles of Neural Networks, particularly the concept of using a network of ‘neurons’ (in this case, various technical indicators). It uses their outputs as features, preprocesses this input data, runs an activation function and in the following creates a dynamic output.
The following features/inputs are used as ‘neurons’:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD)
Bollinger Bands
Stochastic Momentum
Average True Range (ATR)
These base indicators were chosen for their diverse methodologies for capturing market momentum, volatility and trend strength - mirroring how neurons in a Neural Network capture and process varied aspects of the input data.
Preprocessing:
Each technical indicator’s output is normalized to remove bias. Normalization is a standard practice to preprocess data for Neural Networks, to scale input data and allow the model to train more effectively.
Activation Function:
The hyperbolic tangent function serves as the activation function for the neurons. In general, for complete neural networks, activation functions introduce non-linear properties to the models and enable them to learn complex patterns. The tanh() function specifically maps the inputs to a range between -1 and 1.
Dynamic Smoothing:
The composite signal is dynamically smoothed using the Arnaud Legoux Moving Average, which adjusts faster to recent price changes - enhancing the indicator's responsiveness. It mimics the learning rate in neural networks - in this case for the output in a single layer approach - which controls how much new information influences the model, or in this case, our output.
Signal Processing:
The signal line also undergoes processing to adapt to the selected assets volatility. This step ensures the indicator’s flexibility across assets which exhibit different behaviors - similar to how a Neural Network adjusts to various data distributions.
Notes:
While the indicator synthesizes complex market information using methods inspired by neural networks, it is important to note that it does not engage in predictive modeling through the use of backpropagation. Instead, it applies methodologies of neural networks for real-time market analysis that is both dynamic and adaptable to changing market conditions.
Weighted Average Volume Depth [QuantraSystems]Weighted Average Volume Depth
Introduction
The Weighted Average Volume Depth (𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓) indicator is calibrated to provide extensive insights, calculated using volumetric price action and volume depth, and provides dynamic adjustments based upon historical volatility.
This indicator is a valuable asset for traders and investors, aiming to capture trends, measure dynamic volatility, and provide market reversion analysis in a systematic way.
Legend
Volumetric Top Cap: Plotted at y = 0, this line represents the probabilistic maximum value, or ‘cap’ for the signal line. It is colored using a binary color scheme, and indicates the dominant trend direction - green for an uptrend and purple for a downtrend.
Base Line: Calculated using a volume-weighted volatility measurement, this line is used as the benchmark to calculate momentum in the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 indicator.
Signal Line: The signal line represents the volume and volatility weighted measurements, and oscillates between the Base Line and Top Cap. Its position between these levels provides the depth of insights available in this script.
When the signal line is remaining in close proximity to the base line, this is indicative of a low volatility market environment. These periods are also reflected as muted bar coloring when the ‘Trend Intensity’ setting is enabled.
Conversely, when the signal line approaches, or even breaks above the Top Cap, this is characteristic of an unsustainable trending action - and probabilistically speaking, a reversion or consolation is likely to occur at these levels.
Highlighting: When this setting is enabled, background coloring is applied when the Signal Line breaks above the Top Cap. This highlights green as an oversold zone, and purple as an overbought zone.
Reversal Signals: When price begins to reverse from a zone of overextension, a signal is plotted when this reversion occurs from a high probability zone.
Circle - Shows a possible bullish reversal.
Cross - Shows a possible bearish reversal.
Case Study
In the above image, we showcase three distinct trades in short succession, showcasing the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓’s speed and accuracy under the right conditions.
The first long trade was initiated upon receiving a bullish reversal signal. The trade was then closed after the price experienced a sharp upwards movement - and an overbought signal was indicated by the purple shading.
The second, short trade was entered on the next bar, after a bearish reversal signal was printed by the indicator (a white cross). Similarly, this trade was closed upon the oversold signal.
Once again, a reversal signal was indicated by the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 indicator. This time a bullish signal (a white circle), and hence a long position was opened. However, this trade was held until a negative trend confirmation (signaled by the Top Cap’s shift in color). This makes apparent the indicator’s flexible nature, and showcases the multiple signaling types available for traders to use.
Recommended Settings
The optimal settings for the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 indicator will vary upon the chosen asset’s average level volatility, as well as the timeframe it is applied to.
Due to increased volatility levels on lower timeframes, it is recommended to increase the 'Top Cap Multiplier' to take into account the increased frequency of false signals found in these trading environments. The same can be said when used on highly volatile assets - a trader will likely benefit from using a higher 'Top Cap Multiplier.'
On more price-stable assets, as well as any asset on higher timeframes, there is merit to tightening the length of the 'Top Cap Multiplier,' due to the slower nature of price action.
Methodology
The 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 starts with calculating the volume weighted average price and the volume weighted variance - which is the expectation of the squared deviation of a variable from its mean, giving insights into the distribution of trading volume.
Using the volume weighted variance, a standard deviation value is calculated based on user input. This value acts as the ‘Volumetric Top Cap’ - seen in the 𝓦𝓐𝓥𝓓 indicator window as the zero line.
The signal line is calculated as the difference between the current price and the theoretical upper or lower VWAP deviation bands. This line acts as the trigger for identifying prevailing trends and high probability reversal points.
The base line serves as a reference point for historical momentum. It is calculated using an exponential moving average of the lowest signal line values over a defined lookback period. This baseline helps in assessing whether the current momentum is high or low relative to historical norms.
Notes
Bar coloring can be turned off - especially useful when stacking multiple indicators as recommended, or set to 'Trend Intensity,' or 'Binary Trend' (which reflects the top cap coloring).
It is always recommended to never rely on a single indicator - and instead build and test multiple strategies utilizing more than one indicator as confirmation.
TTP Intelligent AccumulatorThe intelligent accumulator is a proof of concept strategy. A hybrid between a recurring buy and TA-based entries and exits.
Distribute the amount of equity and add to your position as long as the TA condition is valid.
Use the exit TA condition to define your exit strategy.
Decide between adding only into losing positions to average down or take a riskier approach by allowing to add into a winning position as well.
Take full profit or distribute your exit into multiple take profit exists of the same size.
You can also decide if you allow your exit conditions to close your position in a loss or require a minimum take profit %.
The strategy includes a default built-in TA conditions just for showcasing the idea but the final intent of this script is to delegate the TA entries and exists to external sources.
The internal conditions use RSI length 7 crossing below the BB with std 1 for entries and above for exits.
To control the number of orders use the properties from settings:
- adjust the pyramiding
- adjust the percentage of equity
- make sure that pyramiding * % equity equals 100 to prevent over use of equity (unless using leverage)
The script is designed as an alternative to daily or weekly recurring buys but depending on the accuracy of your TA conditions it might prove profitable also in lower timeframes.
The reason the script is named Intelligent is because recurring buy is most commonly used without any decision making: buy no matter what with certain frequency. This strategy seeks to still perform recurring buys but filtering out some of the potential bad entries that can delay unnecessarily seeing the position in profits. The second reason is also securing an exit strategy from the beginning which no recurring buy option offers out-of-the-box.
