Options Oscillator [PRO] IVRank, IVx, Call/Put Volatility Skew𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗟 𝗜𝗩𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗸, 𝗜𝗩𝘅, 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗖𝗔𝗟𝗟/𝗣𝗨𝗧 𝘀𝗸𝗲𝘄 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗯𝗮𝘀𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗻 𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗟 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗰𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗻 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟲𝟱+ 𝗺𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗹𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱 𝗨.𝗦. 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝘆𝗺𝗯𝗼𝗹𝘀
🔃 Auto-Updating Option Metrics without refresh!
🍒 Developed and maintained by option traders for option traders.
📈 Specifically designed for TradingView users who trade options.
🔶 Ticker Information:
This indicator is currently only available for over 165+ most liquid U.S. market symbols (eg. SP:SPX AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TLT NASDAQ:NVDA , etc.. ), and we are continuously expanding the compatible watchlist here: www.tradingview.com
🔶 How does the indicator work and why is it unique?
This Pine Script indicator is a complex tool designed to provide various option metrics and visualization tools for options market traders. The indicator extracts raw options data from an external data provider (ORATS), processes and refines the delayed data package using pineseed, and sends it to TradingView, visualizing the data using specific formulas (see detailed below) or interpolated values (e.g., delta distances). This method of incorporating options data into a visualization framework is unique and entirely innovative on TradingView.
The indicator aims to offer a comprehensive view of the current state of options for the implemented instruments, including implied volatility (IV), IV rank (IVR), options skew, and expected market movements, which are objectively measured as detailed below.
The options metrics we display may be familiar to options traders from various major brokerage platforms such as TastyTrade, IBKR, TOS, Tradier, TD Ameritrade, Schwab, etc.
🟨 The following data is displayed in the oscillator 🟨
We use Tastytrade formulas, so our numbers mostly align with theirs!
🔶 𝗜𝗩𝗥𝗮𝗻𝗸
The Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) helps options traders assess the current level of implied volatility (IV) in comparison to the past 52 weeks. IVR is a useful metric to determine whether options are relatively cheap or expensive. This can guide traders on whether to buy or sell options.
IV Rank formula = (current IV - 52 week IV low) / (52 week IV high - 52 week IV low)
IVRank is default blue and you can adjust their settings:
🔶 𝗜𝗩𝘅 𝗮𝘃𝗴
The implied volatility (IVx) shown in the option chain is calculated like the VIX. The Cboe uses standard and weekly SPX options to measure expected S&P 500 volatility. A similar method is used for calculating IVx for each expiration cycle.
We aggregate the IVx values for the 35-70 day monthly expiration cycle, and use that value in the oscillator and info panel.
We always display which expiration the IVx values are averaged for when you hover over the IVx cell.
IVx main color is purple, but you can change the settings:
🔹 IVx 5 days change %
We are also displaying the five-day change of the IV Index (IVx value). The IV Index 5-Day Change column provides quick insight into recent expansions or decreases in implied volatility over the last five trading days.
Traders who expect the value of options to decrease might view a decrease in IVX as a positive signal. Strategies such as Strangle and Ratio Spread can benefit from this decrease.
On the other hand, traders anticipating further increases in IVX will focus on the rising IVX values. Strategies like Calendar Spread or Diagonal Spread can take advantage of increasing implied volatility.
This indicator helps traders quickly assess changes in implied volatility, enabling them to make informed decisions based on their trading strategies and market expectations.
Important Note:
The IVx value alone does not provide sufficient context. There are stocks that inherently exhibit high IVx values. Therefore, it is crucial to consider IVx in conjunction with the Implied Volatility Rank (IVR), which measures the IVx relative to its own historical values. This combined view helps in accurately assessing the significance of the IVx in relation to the specific stock's typical volatility behavior.
This indicator offers traders a comprehensive view of implied volatility, assisting them in making informed decisions by highlighting both the absolute and relative volatility measures.
🔶 𝗖𝗔𝗟𝗟/𝗣𝗨𝗧 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗦𝗸𝗲𝘄 𝗵𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗼𝗴𝗿𝗮𝗺
At TanukiTrade, Vertical Pricing Skew refers to the difference in pricing between put and call options with the same expiration date at the same distance (at tastytrade binary expected move). We analyze this skew to understand market sentiment. This is the same formula used by TastyTrade for calculations.
We calculate the interpolated strike price based on the expected move, taking into account the neighboring option prices and their distances. This allows us to accurately determine whether the CALL or PUT options are more expensive.
🔹 What Causes Pricing Skew? The Theory Behind It
The asymmetric pricing of PUT and CALL options is driven by the natural dynamics of the market. The theory is that when CALL options are more expensive than PUT options at the same distance from the current spot price, market participants are buying CALLs and selling PUTs, expecting a faster upward movement compared to a downward one .
In the case of PUT skew, it's the opposite: participants are buying PUTs and selling CALLs , as they expect a potential downward move to happen more quickly than an upward one.
An options trader can take advantage of this phenomenon by leveraging PUT pricing skew. For example, if they have a bullish outlook and both IVR and IVx are high and IV started decreasing, they can capitalize on this PUT skew with strategies like a jade lizard, broken wing butterfly, or short put.
🔴 PUT Skew 🔴
Put options are more expensive than call options, indicating the market expects a faster downward move (▽). This alone doesn't indicate which way the market will move (because nobody knows that), but the options chain pricing suggests that if the market moves downward, it could do so faster in velocity compared to a potential upward movement.
🔹 SPY PUT SKEW example:
If AMEX:SPY PUT option prices are 46% higher than CALLs at the same distance for the optimal next monthly expiry (DTE). This alone doesn't indicate which way the market will move (because nobody knows that), but the options chain pricing suggests that if the market moves downward, it could do so 46% faster in velocity compared to a potential upward movement
🟢 CALL Skew 🟢
Call options are more expensive than put options, indicating the market expects a faster upward move (△). This alone doesn't indicate which way the market will move (because nobody knows that), but the options chain pricing suggests that if the market moves upward, it could do so faster in velocity compared to a potential downward movement.
🔹 INTC CALL SKEW example:
If NASDAQ:INTC CALL option prices are 49% higher than PUTs at the same distance for the optimal next monthly expiry (DTE). This alone doesn't indicate which way the market will move (because nobody knows that), but the options chain pricing suggests that if the market moves upward, it could do so 49% faster in velocity compared to a potential downward movement .
🔶 USAGE example:
The script is compatible with our other options indicators.
For example: Since the main metrics are already available in this Options Oscillator, you can hide the main IVR panel of our Options Overlay indicator, freeing up more space on the chart. The following image shows this:
🔶 ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT COMMENTS
🔹 Historical Data:
Yes, we only using historical internal metrics dating back to 2024-07-01, when the TanukiTrade options brand launched. For now, we're using these, but we may expand the historical data in the future.
🔹 What distance does the indicator use to measure the call/put pricing skew?:
It is important to highlight that this oscillator displays the call/put pricing skew changes for the next optimal monthly expiration on a histogram.
The Binary Expected Move distance is calculated using the TastyTrade method for the next optimal monthly expiration: Formula = (ATM straddle price x 0.6) + (1st OTM strangle price x 0.3) + (2nd OTM strangle price x 0.1)
We interpolate the exact difference based on the neighboring strikes at the binary expected move distance using the TastyTrade method, and compare the interpolated call and put prices at this specific point.
🔹 - Why is there a slight difference between the displayed data and my live brokerage data?
There are two reasons for this, and one is beyond our control.
◎ Option-data update frequency:
According to TradingView's regulations and guidelines, we can update external data a maximum of 5 times per day. We strive to use these updates in the most optimal way:
(1st update) 15 minutes after U.S. market open
(2nd, 3rd, 4th updates) 1.5–3 hours during U.S. market open hours
(5th update) 10 minutes before U.S. market close.
You don’t need to refresh your window, our last refreshed data-pack is always automatically applied to your indicator, and you can see the time elapsed since the last update at the bottom of the corner on daily TF.
◎ Brokerage Calculation Differences:
Every brokerage has slight differences in how they calculate metrics like IV and IVx. If you open three windows for TOS, TastyTrade, and IBKR side by side, you will notice that the values are minimally different. We had to choose a standard, so we use the formulas and mathematical models described by TastyTrade when analyzing the options chain and drawing conclusions.
🔹 - EOD data:
The indicator always displays end-of-day (EOD) data for IVR, IV, and CALL/PUT pricing skew. During trading hours, it shows the current values for the ongoing day with each update, and at market close, these values become final. From that point on, the data is considered EOD, provided the day confirms as a closed daily candle.
🔹 - U.S. market only:
Since we only deal with liquid option chains: this option indicator only works for the USA options market and do not include future contracts; we have implemented each selected symbol individually.
Disclaimer:
Our option indicator uses approximately 15min-3 hour delayed option market snapshot data to calculate the main option metrics. Exact realtime option contract prices are never displayed; only derived metrics and interpolated delta are shown to ensure accurate and consistent visualization. Due to the above, this indicator can only be used for decision support; exclusive decisions cannot be made based on this indicator. We reserve the right to make errors.This indicator is designed for options traders who understand what they are doing. It assumes that they are familiar with options and can make well-informed, independent decisions. We work with public data and are not a data provider; therefore, we do not bear any financial or other liability.
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Options Overlay [Pro] IVR IV Skew Delta Exp.mv MurreyMath Expiry
𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗳𝗶𝗿𝘀𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮 𝗶𝗻𝗱𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘄, 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟱𝟬+ 𝗹𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱 𝗨𝗦 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝘆𝗺𝗯𝗼𝗹𝘀.
🔃 Auto-Updating Option Metrics without refresh!
🍒 Developed and maintained by option traders for option traders.
📈 Specifically designed for TradingView users who trade options.
Our indicator provides essential key metrics such as:
✅ IVRank
✅ IVx
✅ 5-Day IVx Change
✅ Delta curves and interpolated distances
✅ Expected move curve
✅ Standard deviation (STD1) curve
✅ Vertical Pricing Skew
✅ Horizontal IVx Skew
✅ Delta Skew
like TastyTrade, TOS, IBKR etc, but in a much more visually intuitive way. See detailed descriptions below.
If this isn't enough, we also include a unique grid system designed specifically for options traders. This package features our innovative dynamic grid system:
✅ Enhanced Murrey Math levels (horizontal scale)
✅ Options expirations (vertical scale)
Designed to help you assess market conditions and make well-informed trading decisions, this tool is an essential addition for every serious options trader!
Ticker Information:
This indicator is currently implemented for more than 150 liquid US market tickers and we are continuously expanding the list:
SP:SPX AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:GLD
NYSE:AA NASDAQ:AAL NASDAQ:AAPL NYSE:ABBV NASDAQ:ABNB NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AMZN AMEX:ARKK NASDAQ:AVGO NYSE:AXP NYSE:BA NYSE:BABA NYSE:BAC NASDAQ:BIDU AMEX:BITO NYSE:BMY NYSE:BP NASDAQ:BYND NYSE:C NYSE:CAT NYSE:CCJ NYSE:CCL NASDAQ:COIN NYSE:COP NASDAQ:COST NYSE:CRM NASDAQ:CRWD NASDAQ:CSCO NYSE:CVNA NYSE:CVS NYSE:CVX NYSE:DAL NASDAQ:DBX AMEX:DIA NYSE:DIS NASDAQ:DKNG NASDAQ:EBAY NASDAQ:ETSY NASDAQ:EXPE NYSE:F NYSE:FCX NYSE:FDX AMEX:FXI AMEX:GDX AMEX:GDXJ NYSE:GE NYSE:GM NYSE:GME NYSE:GOLD NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:GOOGL NYSE:GPS NYSE:GS NASDAQ:HOOD NYSE:IBM NASDAQ:IEF NASDAQ:INTC AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:JD NYSE:JNJ NYSE:JPM NYSE:JWN NYSE:KO NYSE:LLY NYSE:LOW NYSE:LVS NYSE:MA NASDAQ:MARA NYSE:MCD NYSE:MET NASDAQ:META NYSE:MGM NYSE:MMM NYSE:MPC NYSE:MRK NASDAQ:MRNA NYSE:MRO NASDAQ:MRVL NYSE:MS NASDAQ:MSFT AMEX:MSOS NYSE:NCLH NASDAQ:NDX NYSE:NET NASDAQ:NFLX NYSE:NIO NYSE:NKE NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:ON NYSE:ORCL NYSE:OXY NASDAQ:PEP NYSE:PFE NYSE:PINS NYSE:PLTR NASDAQ:PTON NASDAQ:PYPL NASDAQ:QCOM NYSE:RBLX NYSE:RCL NASDAQ:RIOT NASDAQ:RIVN NASDAQ:ROKU NASDAQ:SBUX NYSE:SHOP AMEX:SLV NASDAQ:SMCI NASDAQ:SMH NYSE:SNAP NYSE:SQ NYSE:T NYSE:TGT NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:TSM NASDAQ:TTD NASDAQ:TXN NYSE:U NASDAQ:UAL NYSE:UBER AMEX:UNG NYSE:UPS NASDAQ:UPST AMEX:USO NYSE:V AMEX:VXX NYSE:VZ NASDAQ:WBA NYSE:WFC NYSE:WMT NASDAQ:WYNN NYSE:X AMEX:XHB AMEX:XLE AMEX:XLF AMEX:XLI AMEX:XLK AMEX:XLP AMEX:XLU AMEX:XLV AMEX:XLY NYSE:XOM NYSE:XPEV CBOE:XSP NASDAQ:ZM
How does the indicator work and why is it unique?
This Pine Script indicator is a complex tool designed to provide various option metrics and visualization tools for options market traders. The indicator extracts raw options data from an external data provider (ORATS), processes and refines the delayed data package using pineseed, and sends it to TradingView, visualizing the data using specific formulas (see detailed below) or interpolated values (e.g., delta distances). This method of incorporating options data into a visualization framework is unique and entirely innovative on TradingView.
The indicator aims to offer a comprehensive view of the current state of options for the implemented instruments, including implied volatility (IV), IV rank (IVR), options skew, and expected market movements, which are objectively measured as detailed below.
The options metrics we display may be familiar to options traders from various major brokerage platforms such as TastyTrade, IBKR, TOS, Tradier, TD Ameritrade, Schwab, etc.
🟨 𝗗𝗘𝗧𝗔𝗜𝗟𝗘𝗗 𝗗𝗢𝗖𝗨𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 🟨
🔶 Auto-Updating Option Metrics and Curved Lines
🔹 Interpolated DELTA Curves (16,20,25,30,40)
In our indicator, the curve layer settings allow you to choose the delta value for displaying the delta curve: 16, 20, 25, 30, or even 40. The color of the curve can be customized, and you can also hide the delta curve by selecting the "-" option.
It's important to mention that we display interpolated deltas from the actual option chain of the underlying asset using the Black-Scholes model. This ensures that the 16 delta truly reflects the theoretical, but accurate, 16 delta distance. (For example, deltas shown by brokerages for individual strikes are rounded; a 0.16 delta might actually be 0.1625.)
🔹 Expected Move Curve (Exp.mv)
The expected move is the predicted dollar change in the underlying stock's price by a given option's expiration date, with 68% certainty. It is calculated using the expiration's pricing and implied volatility levels. We chose the TastyTrade method for calculating expected move, as we found it to be the most expressive.
Expected Move Calculation
Expected Move = (ATM straddle price x 0.6) + (1st OTM strangle price x 0.3) + (2nd OTM strangle price x 0.1)
For example , if stock XYZ is trading at 121 and the ATM straddle is 4.40, the 120/122 strangle is 3.46, and the 119/123 strangle is 2.66, the expected move is calculated as follows: 4.40 x 0.60 = 2.64; 3.46 x 0.30 = 1.04; 2.66 x 0.10 = 0.27; Expected move = 2.64 + 1.04 + 0.27 = ±3.9
In this example below, the TastyTrade platform indicates the expected move on the option chain with a brown color, and the exact value is displayed behind the ± symbol for each expiration. By default, we also use brown for this indication, but this can be changed or the curve display can be turned off.
🔹 Standard Deviation Curve (1 STD)
One standard deviation of a stock encompasses approximately 68.2% of outcomes in a distribution of occurrences based on current implied volatility.
We use the expected move formula to calculate the one standard deviation range of a stock. This calculation is based on the days-to-expiration (DTE) of our option contract, the stock price, and the implied volatility of a stock:
Calculation:
Standard Deviation = Closing Price * Implied Volatility * sqrt(Days to Expiration / 365)
According to options literature, there is a 68% probability that the underlying asset will fall within this one standard deviation range at expiration.
If the 1 STD and Exp.mv displays are both enabled, the indicator fills the area between them with a light gray color. This is because both represent probability distributions that appear as a "bell curve" when graphed, making it visually appealing.
Tip and Note:
The 1 STD line might appear jagged at times , which does not indicate a problem with the indicator. This is normal immediately after market open (e.g., during the first data refresh of the day) or if the expirations are illiquid (e.g., weekly expirations). The 1 STD value is calculated based on the aggregated IVx for the expirations, and the aggregated IVx value for weekly expirations updates less frequently due to lower trading volume. In such cases, we recommend enabling the "Only Monthly Expirations" option to smooth out the bell curve.
∑ Quant Observation:
The values of the expected move and the 1st standard deviation (1STD) will not match because they use different calculation methods, even though both are referred to as representing 68% of the underlying asset's movement in options literature. The expected move is based on direct market pricing of ATM options. The 1STD, on the other hand, uses the averaged implied volatility (IVX) for the given expiration to determine its value. Based on our experience, it is better to consider the area between the expected move and the 1STD as the true representation of the original 68% rule.
🔶 IVR Dashboard Panel Rows
🔹 IVR (IV Rank)
The Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) indicator helps options traders assess the current level of implied volatility (IV) in comparison to the past 52 weeks. IVR is a useful metric to determine whether options are relatively cheap or expensive. This can guide traders on whether to buy or sell options. We calculate IVrank, like TastyTrade does.
IVR Calculation:
IV Rank = (current IV - 52 week IV low) / (52 week IV high - 52 week IV low)
IVR Levels and Interpretations:
IVR 0-10 (Green): Very low implied volatility rank. Options might be "cheap," potentially a good time to buy options.
IVR 10-35 (White): Normal implied volatility rank. Options pricing is relatively standard.
IVR 35-50 (Orange): Almost high implied volatility rank.
IVR 50-75 (Red): Definitely high implied volatility rank. Options might be "expensive," potentially a good time to sell options for higher premiums.
IVR above 75 (Highlighted Red): Ultra high implied volatility rank. Indicates very high levels, suggesting a favorable time for selling options.
The panel refreshes automatically if the symbol is implemented. You can hide the panel or change the position and size.
🔹IVx (Implied Volatility Index)
The Implied Volatility Index (IVx) displayed in the option chain is calculated similarly to the VIX. The Cboe uses standard and weekly SPX options to measure the expected volatility of the S&P 500. A similar method is utilized to calculate IVx for each option expiration cycle.
For our purposes on the IVR Panel, we aggregate the IVx values specifically for the 35-70 day monthly expiration cycle . This aggregated value is then presented in the screener and info panel, providing a clear and concise measure of implied volatility over this period.
IVx Color coding:
IVx above 30 is displayed in orange.
IVx above 60 is displayed in red
IVx on curve:
The IVx values for each expiration can be viewed by hovering the mouse over the colored tooltip labels above the Curve.
IVx avg on IVR panel :
If the option is checked in the IVR panel settings, the IVR panel will display the average IVx values up to the optimal expiration.
Important Note:
The IVx value alone does not provide sufficient context. There are stocks that inherently exhibit high IVx values. Therefore, it is crucial to consider IVx in conjunction with the Implied Volatility Rank (IVR), which measures the IVx relative to its own historical values. This combined view helps in accurately assessing the significance of the IVx in relation to the specific stock's typical volatility behavior.
This indicator offers traders a comprehensive view of implied volatility, assisting them in making informed decisions by highlighting both the absolute and relative volatility measures.
🔹IVx 5 days change %
We are displaying the five-day change of the IV Index (IVx value). The IV Index 5-Day Change column provides quick insight into recent expansions or decreases in implied volatility over the last five trading days.
Traders who expect the value of options to decrease might view a decrease in IVX as a positive signal. Strategies such as Strangle and Ratio Spread can benefit from this decrease.
On the other hand, traders anticipating further increases in IVX will focus on the rising IVX values. Strategies like Calendar Spread or Diagonal Spread can take advantage of increasing implied volatility.
This indicator helps traders quickly assess changes in implied volatility, enabling them to make informed decisions based on their trading strategies and market expectations.
🔹 Vertical Pricing Skew
At TanukiTrade, Vertical Pricing Skew refers to the difference in pricing between put and call options with the same expiration date at the same distance (at expected move). We analyze this skew to understand market sentiment. This is the same formula used by TastyTrade for calculations.
We calculate the interpolated strike price based on the expected move , taking into account the neighboring option prices and their distances. This allows us to accurately determine whether the CALL or PUT options are more expensive.
PUT Skew (red): Put options are more expensive than call options, indicating the market expects a downward move (▽). If put options are more expensive by more than 20% at the same expected move distance, we color it lighter red.
CALL Skew (green): Call options are more expensive than put options, indicating the market expects an upward move (△). If call options are priced more than 30% higher at the examined expiration, we color it lighter green.
Vertical Skew on Curve:
The degree of vertical pricing skew for each expiration can be viewed by hovering over the points above the curve. Hover with mouse for more information.
Vertical Skew on IVR panel:
We focus on options with 35-70 days to expiration (DTE) for optimal analysis in case of vertical skew. Hover with mouse for more information.
This approach helps us gauge market expectations accurately, providing insights into potential price movements. Remember, we always evaluate the skew at the expected move using linear interpolation to determine the theoretical pricing of options.
🔹 Delta Skew 🌪️ (Twist)
We have a new metric that examines which monthly expiration indicates a "Delta Skew Twist" where the 16 delta deviates from the monthly STD. This is important because, under normal circumstances, the 16 delta is positioned between the expected move and the standard deviation (STD1) line (see Exp.mv & 1STD exact definitions above). However, if the interpolated 16 delta line exceeds the STD1 line either upwards or downwards, it represents a special case of vertical skew on the option chain.
Normal case : exp.move < delta16 < std1
Delta Skew Twist: exp.move < std1 < delta16
We indicate this with direction-specific colors (red/green) on the delta line. We also color the section of the delta curve affected by the delta skew in this case, even if you choose to display a lower delta, such as 30, instead of 16.
If "Colored Labels with Tooltips" is enabled, we also display a 🌪️ symbol in the tooltip for the expirations affected by Delta Skew.
If you have enabled the display of 'Vertical Pricing Skew' on the IVR Panel, a 🌪️ symbol will also appear next to the value of the vertical skew, and the tooltip will indicate from which expiration Delta Skew is observed.
🔹 Horizontal IVx Skew
In options pricing, it is typically expected that the implied volatility (IVx) increases for options with later expiration dates. This means that options further out in time are generally more expensive. At TanukiTrade, we refer to the phenomenon where this expectation is reversed—when the IVx decreases between two consecutive expirations—as Horizontal Skew or IVx Skew.
Horizontal IVx Skew occurs when: Front Expiry IVx < Back Expiry IVx
This scenario can create opportunities for traders who prefer diagonal or calendar strategies . Based on our experience, we categorize Horizontal Skew into two types:
Weekly Horizontal Skew:
When IVx skew is observed between two consecutive non-monthly expirations, the displayed value is the rounded-up percentage difference. On hover, the approximate location of this skew is also displayed. The precise location can be seen on this indicator.
Monthly Horizontal Skew:
When IVx skew is observed between two consecutive monthly expirations , the displayed value is the rounded-up percentage difference. On hover, the approximate location of this skew is also displayed. The precise location can be seen on our Overlay indicator.
The Monthly Vertical IVx skew is consistently more liquid than the weekly vertical IVx skew. Weekly Horizontal IVx Skew may not carry relevant information for symbols not included in the 'Weeklies & Volume Masters' preset in our Options Screener indicator.
If the options chain follows the normal IVx pattern, no skew value is displayed.
Color codes or tooltip labels above curve:
Gray - No horizontal skew;
Purple - Weekly horizontal skew;
BigBlue - Monthly horizontal skew
The display of monthly and weekly IVx skew can be toggled on or off on the IVR panel. However, if you want to disable the colored tooltips above the curve, this can only be done using the "Colored labels with tooltips" switch.
We indicate this range with colorful information bubbles above the upper STD line.
🔶 The Option Trader’s GRID System: Adaptive MurreyMath + Expiry Lines
At TanukiTrade, we utilize Enhanced MurreyMath and Expiry lines to create a dynamic grid system, unlike the basic built-in vertical grids in TradingView, which provide no insight into specific price levels or option expirations.
These grids are beneficial because they provide a structured layout, making important price levels visible on the chart. The grid automatically resizes as the underlying asset's volatility changes, helping traders identify expected movements for various option expirations.
The Option Trader’s GRID System part of this indicator can be used without limitations for all instruments . There are no type or other restrictions, and it automatically scales to fit every asset. Even if we haven't implemented the option metrics for a particular underlying asset, the GRID system will still function!
🔹 SETUP OF YOUR OPTIONS GRID SYSTEM
You can setup your new grid system in 3 easy steps!
STEP1: Hide default horizontal grid lines in TradingView
Right-click on an empty area of your chart, then select “Settings.” In the Chart settings -> Canvas -> Grid lines section, disable the display of horizontal lines to avoid distraction.
SETUP STEP2: Scaling fix
Right-click on the price scale on the right side, then select "Scale price chart only" to prevent the chart from scaling to the new horizontal lines!
STEP3: Enable Tanuki Options Grid
As a final step, make sure that both the vertical (MurreyMath) and horizontal (Expiry) lines are enabled in the Grid section of our indicator.
You are done, enjoy the new grid system!
🔹 HORIZONTAL: Enhanced MurreyMath Lines
Murrey Math lines are based on the principles observed by William Gann, renowned for his market symmetry forecasts. Gann's techniques, such as Gann Angles, have been adapted by Murrey to make them more accessible to ordinary investors. According to Murrey, markets often correct at specific price levels, and breakouts or returns to these levels can signal good entry points for trades.
At TanukiTrade, we enhance these price levels based on our experience , ensuring a clear display. We acknowledge that while MurreyMath lines aren't infallible predictions, they are useful for identifying likely price movements over a given period (e.g., one month) if the market trend aligns.
Our opinion: MurreyMath lines are not crystal balls (like no other tool). They should be used to identify that if we are trading in the right direction, the price is likely to reach the next unit step within a unit time (e.g. monthly expiration).
One unit step is the distance between Murrey Math lines, such as between the 0/8 and 1/8 lines. This interval helps identify different quadrants and is crucial for recognizing support and resistance levels.
Some option traders use Murrey Math lines to gauge the movement speed of an instrument over a unit time. A quadrant encompasses 4 unit steps.
Key levels, according to TanukiTrade, include:
Of course, the lines can be toggled on or off, and their default color can also be changed.
🔹 VERTICAL: Expiry Lines
The indicator can display monthly and weekly expirations as dashed lines, with customizable colors. Weekly expirations will always appear in a lighter shade compared to monthly expirations.
Monthly Expiry Lines:
You can turn off the lines indicating monthly expirations, or set the direction (past/future/both) and the number of lines to be drawn.
Weekly Expiry Lines:
You can display weekly expirations pointing to the future. You can also turn them off or specify how many weeks ahead the lines should be drawn.
Of course, the lines can be toggled on or off, and their default color can also be changed.
TIP: Hide default vertical grid lines in TradingView
Right-click on an empty area of your chart, then select “Settings.” In the Chart settings -> Canvas -> Grid lines section, disable the display of vertical lines to avoid distraction. Same, like steps above at MurreyMath lines.
🔶 ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT COMMENTS
- U.S. market only:
Since we only deal with liquid option chains: this option indicator only works for the USA options market and do not include future contracts; we have implemented each selected symbol individually.
- Why is there a slight difference between the displayed data and my live brokerage data? There are two reasons for this, and one is beyond our control.
- Brokerage Calculation Differences:
Every brokerage has slight differences in how they calculate metrics like IV and IVx. If you open three windows for TOS, TastyTrade, and IBKR side by side, you will notice that the values are minimally different. We had to choose a standard, so we use the formulas and mathematical models described by TastyTrade when analyzing the options chain and drawing conclusions.
- Option-data update frequency:
According to TradingView's regulations and guidelines, we can update external data a maximum of 5 times per day. We strive to use these updates in the most optimal way:
(1st update) 15 minutes after U.S. market open
(2nd, 3rd, 4th updates) 1.5–3 hours during U.S. market open hours
(5th update) 10 minutes before market close.
You don’t need to refresh your window, our last refreshed data-pack is always automatically applied to your indicator , and you can see the time elapsed since the last update at the bottom of your indicator.
- Skewed Curves:
The delta, expected move, and standard deviation curves also appear relevantly on a daily or intraday timeframe. Data loss is experienced above a daily timeframe: this is a TradingView limitation.
- Weekly illiquid expiries:
Especially for instruments where weekly options are illiquid: the weekly expiration STD1 data is not relevant. In these cases, we recommend checking in the "Display only Monthly labels" checkbox to avoid displaying not relevant weekly options expirations.
-Timeframe Issues:
Our option indicator visualizes relevant data on a daily resolution. If you see strange or incorrect data (e.g., when the options data was last updated), always switch to a daily (1D) timeframe. If you still see strange data, please contact us.
Disclaimer:
Our option indicator uses approximately 15min-3 hour delayed option market snapshot data to calculate the main option metrics. Exact realtime option contract prices are never displayed; only derived metrics and interpolated delta are shown to ensure accurate and consistent visualization. Due to the above, this indicator can only be used for decision support; exclusive decisions cannot be made based on this indicator . We reserve the right to make errors.This indicator is designed for options traders who understand what they are doing. It assumes that they are familiar with options and can make well-informed, independent decisions. We work with public data and are not a data provider; therefore, we do not bear any financial or other liability.
Options Screener [Pro] - IVRank, IVx, Deltas, Exp.move, Skew
𝗢𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗼𝗻 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴𝗩𝗶𝗲𝘄 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗮, 𝗮𝘃𝗮𝗶𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗹𝗲 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝟭𝟱𝟬+ 𝗹𝗶𝗾𝘂𝗶𝗱 𝗨𝗦 𝗺𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁 𝘀𝘆𝗺𝗯𝗼𝗹𝘀!
𝗢𝘂𝗿 𝘀𝗰𝗿𝗲𝗲𝗻𝗲𝗿 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝘃𝗶𝗱𝗲𝘀 𝗲𝘀𝘀𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗸𝗲𝘆 𝗺𝗲𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗰𝘀 𝘀𝘂𝗰𝗵 𝗮𝘀:
✅ IVRank
✅ IVx
✅ 5-Day IVx Change
✅ Vertical Pricing Skew
✅ Horizontal IVx Skew
✅ Delta Skew
like TastyTrade, TOS, IBKR etc.
Designed to help you assess option market conditions and make well-informed trading decisions, this tool is an essential addition for every serious options trader!
Ticker Information:
This screener is currently implemented for more than 150 liquid US market tickers and we are continuously expanding the list:
SP:SPX AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:TLT AMEX:GLD
NYSE:AA NASDAQ:AAL NASDAQ:AAPL NYSE:ABBV NASDAQ:ABNB NASDAQ:AMD NASDAQ:AMZN AMEX:ARKK NASDAQ:AVGO NYSE:AXP NYSE:BA NYSE:BABA NYSE:BAC NASDAQ:BIDU AMEX:BITO NYSE:BMY NYSE:BP NASDAQ:BYND NYSE:C NYSE:CAT NYSE:CCJ NYSE:CCL NASDAQ:COIN NYSE:COP NASDAQ:COST NYSE:CRM NASDAQ:CRWD NASDAQ:CSCO NYSE:CVNA NYSE:CVS NYSE:CVX NYSE:DAL NASDAQ:DBX AMEX:DIA NYSE:DIS NASDAQ:DKNG NASDAQ:EBAY NASDAQ:ETSY NASDAQ:EXPE NYSE:F NYSE:FCX NYSE:FDX AMEX:FXI AMEX:GDX AMEX:GDXJ NYSE:GE NYSE:GM NYSE:GME NYSE:GOLD NASDAQ:GOOG NASDAQ:GOOGL NYSE:GPS NYSE:GS NASDAQ:HOOD NYSE:IBM NASDAQ:IEF NASDAQ:INTC AMEX:IWM NASDAQ:JD NYSE:JNJ NYSE:JPM NYSE:JWN NYSE:KO NYSE:LLY NYSE:LOW NYSE:LVS NYSE:MA NASDAQ:MARA NYSE:MCD NYSE:MET NASDAQ:META NYSE:MGM NYSE:MMM NYSE:MPC NYSE:MRK NASDAQ:MRNA NYSE:MRO NASDAQ:MRVL NYSE:MS NASDAQ:MSFT AMEX:MSOS NYSE:NCLH NASDAQ:NDX NYSE:NET NASDAQ:NFLX NYSE:NIO NYSE:NKE NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:ON NYSE:ORCL NYSE:OXY NASDAQ:PEP NYSE:PFE NYSE:PINS NYSE:PLTR NASDAQ:PTON NASDAQ:PYPL NASDAQ:QCOM NYSE:RBLX NYSE:RCL NASDAQ:RIOT NASDAQ:RIVN NASDAQ:ROKU NASDAQ:SBUX NYSE:SHOP AMEX:SLV NASDAQ:SMCI NASDAQ:SMH NYSE:SNAP NYSE:SQ NYSE:T NYSE:TGT NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:TSLA NYSE:TSM NASDAQ:TTD NASDAQ:TXN NYSE:U NASDAQ:UAL NYSE:UBER AMEX:UNG NYSE:UPS NASDAQ:UPST AMEX:USO NYSE:V AMEX:VXX NYSE:VZ NASDAQ:WBA NYSE:WFC NYSE:WMT NASDAQ:WYNN NYSE:X AMEX:XHB AMEX:XLE AMEX:XLF AMEX:XLI AMEX:XLK AMEX:XLP AMEX:XLU AMEX:XLV AMEX:XLY NYSE:XOM NYSE:XPEV CBOE:XSP NASDAQ:ZM
How does the screener work and why is it unique?
This Pine Script screener is an expert tool created to provide various option metrics and visualization tools for options market traders. The screener extracts raw options data from an external data provider (ORATS), processes, and refines the delayed data package using pineseed, and sends it to TradingView. The data is calculated using specific formulas or interpolated values, such as delta distances. This method of integrating options data into a screener framework is unique and innovative on TradingView.
The screener aims to offer a comprehensive view of the current state of options for the implemented instruments, including implied volatility index (IVx), IV rank (IVR), options skew, and expected market movements, which are objectively measured as detailed below.
The options metrics displayed may be familiar to options traders from various major brokerage platforms such as TastyTrade, IBKR, TOS, Tradier, TD Ameritrade, Schwab, etc.
🟨 𝗗𝗘𝗧𝗔𝗜𝗟𝗘𝗗 𝗗𝗢𝗖𝗨𝗠𝗘𝗡𝗧𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗢𝗡 🟨
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🔶 Auto-Updating Option Metrics
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🔹 IVR (IV Rank)
The Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) indicator helps options traders assess the current level of implied volatility (IV) in comparison to the past 52 weeks. IVR is a useful metric to determine whether options are relatively cheap or expensive. This can guide traders on whether to buy or sell options. We calculate IVrank, like TastyTrade does.
IVR Calculation: IV Rank = (current IV - 52 week IV low) / (52 week IV high - 52 week IV low)
IVR Levels and Interpretations:
IVR 0-10 (Green): Very low implied volatility rank. Options might be "cheap," potentially a good time to buy options.
IVR 10-35 (White): Normal implied volatility rank. Options pricing is relatively standard.
IVR 35-50 (Orange): Almost high implied volatility rank.
IVR 50-75 (Red): Definitely high implied volatility rank. Options might be "expensive," potentially a good time to sell options for higher premiums.
IVR above 75 (Highlighted Red): Ultra high implied volatility rank. Indicates very high levels, suggesting a favorable time for selling options.
Extra: If the IVx value is also greater than 30, the background will be dark highlighted, because a high IVR alone doesn’t mean much without high IVx.
🔹IVx (Implied Volatility Index)
The Implied Volatility Index (IVx) displayed in the option chain is calculated similarly to the VIX. The Cboe employs standard and weekly SPX options to measure the expected volatility of the S&P 500. A similar method is utilized to calculate IVx for each option expiration cycle.
For our purposes, we aggregate the IVx values specifically for the 35-70 day monthly expiration cycle . This aggregated value is then presented in the screener and info panel, providing a clear and concise measure of implied volatility over this period.
We will display a warning if the option chain is heavily skewed and valid, symmetric 16 delta options are not found at optimal monthly expirations.
IVx Color coding:
IVx above 30 is displayed in orange.
IVx above 60 is displayed in red
Important Note: The IVx value alone does not provide sufficient context. There are stocks that inherently exhibit high IVx values. Therefore, it is crucial to consider IVx in conjunction with the Implied Volatility Rank (IVR), which measures the IVx relative to its own historical values. This combined view helps in accurately assessing the significance of the IVx in relation to the specific stock's typical volatility behavior.
This indicator offers traders a comprehensive view of implied volatility, assisting them in making informed decisions by highlighting both the absolute and relative volatility measures.
🔹IVx 5 days change %
We are displaying the five-day change of the IV Index (IVx value). The IV Index 5-Day Change column provides quick insight into recent expansions or decreases in implied volatility over the last five trading days.
Traders who expect the value of options to decrease might view a decrease in IVX as a positive signal. Strategies such as Strangle and Ratio Spread can benefit from this decrease.
On the other hand, traders anticipating further increases in IVX will focus on the rising IVX values. Strategies like Calendar Spread or Diagonal Spread can take advantage of increasing implied volatility.
This indicator helps traders quickly assess changes in implied volatility, enabling them to make informed decisions based on their trading strategies and market expectations.
🔹 Vertical Pricing Skew
At TanukiTrade, Vertical Pricing Skew refers to the difference in pricing between put and call options with the same expiration date at the same distance (at expected move). We analyze this skew to understand market sentiment. This is the same formula used by TastyTrade for calculations.
PUT Skew (red): Put options are more expensive than call options, indicating the market expects a downward move (▽). If put options are more expensive by more than 20% at the same expected move distance, we color it lighter red.
CALL Skew (green): Call options are more expensive than put options, indicating the market expects an upward move (△). If call options are priced more than 30% higher at the examined expiration, we color it lighter green.
We focus on options with 35-70 days to expiration (DTE) for optimal analysis. We always evaluate the skew at the expected move using linear interpolation to determine the theoretical pricing of options. If the pricing have more than C50%/P35% we are highlighting the cell.
This approach helps us gauge market expectations accurately, providing insights into potential price movements.
🔹 Horizontal IVx Skew
In options pricing, it is typically expected that the implied volatility (IVx) increases for options with later expiration dates. This means that options further out in time are generally more expensive. At TanukiTrade, we refer to the phenomenon where this expectation is reversed—when the IVx decreases between two consecutive expirations—as Horizontal Skew or IVx Skew.
Horizontal IVx Skew occurs when: Front Month IVx < Back Month IVx
This scenario can create opportunities for traders who prefer diagonal or calendar strategies. Based on our experience, we categorize Horizontal Skew into two types:
Weekly Horizontal Skew: When IVx skew is observed between two consecutive non-monthly expirations , the displayed value is the rounded-up percentage difference. On hover, the approximate location of this skew is also displayed. The precise location can be seen on the Overlay indicator.
Monthly Horizontal Skew: When IVx skew is observed between two consecutive monthly expirations , the displayed value is the rounded-up percentage difference. On hover, the approximate location of this skew is also displayed. The precise location can be seen on the Overlay indicator.
The Monthly Vertical IVx skew is consistently stronger (more liquid) on average symbols than the weekly vertical IVx skew. Weekly Horizontal IVx Skew may not carry relevant information for symbols not included in the 'Weeklies & Volume Masters' preset.
If the options chain follows the normal IVx pattern, no skew value is displayed.
Additionally , if the Implied Volatility Rank (IVR) is low (indicated by green), the Horizontal Skew background turns black, because this environment is good for Calendar+Diagonal.
Additionally , if the % of the skew is greater than 10, the Horizontal Skew font color turns lighter.
🔹 Delta Skew 🌪️ (Twist)
We have a metric that examines which monthly expiration indicates a "Delta Skew Twist" where the 16 delta deviates from the monthly STD. This is important because, under normal circumstances, the 16 delta is positioned between the expected move and the standard deviation (STD1) line. However, if the interpolated 16 delta line exceeds the STD1 line either upwards or downwards, it represents a special case of vertical skew.
Normal case : exp.move < delta16 < std1
Delta Skew Twist: exp.move < std1 < delta16
If the Days to Expiration of the twist is less than 75, we use a lighter color.
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🔶 HOW WE CALCULATE
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🔹 Expected Move
The expected move is the predicted dollar change in the underlying stock's price by a given option's expiration date, with 68% certainty. It is calculated using the expiration's pricing and implied volatility levels.
Expected Move Calculation
Expected Move = (ATM straddle price x 0.6) + (1st OTM strangle price x 0.3) + (2nd OTM strangle price x 0.1)
For example , if stock XYZ is trading at 121 and the ATM straddle is 4.40, the 120/122 strangle is 3.46, and the 119/123 strangle is 2.66, the expected move is calculated as follows: 4.40 x 0.60 = 2.64; 3.46 x 0.30 = 1.04; 2.66 x 0.10 = 0.27; Expected move = 2.64 + 1.04 + 0.27 = ±3.9
🔹 Standard deviation
One standard deviation of a stock encompasses approximately 68.2% of outcomes in a distribution of occurrences based on current implied volatility.
We use the expected move formula to calculate the one standard deviation range of a stock. This calculation is based on the days-to-expiration (DTE) of our option contract, the stock price, and the implied volatility of a stock:
Calculation:
Standard Deviation = Closing Price * Implied Volatility * sqrt(Days to Expiration / 365)
According to options literature, there is a 68% probability that the underlying asset will fall within this one standard deviation range at expiration.
∑ Quant Observation: The values of the expected move and the 1st standard deviation (1STD) will not match because they use different calculation methods, even though both are referred to as representing 68% of the underlying asset's movement in options literature. The expected move is based on direct market pricing of ATM options. The 1STD, on the other hand, uses the averaged implied volatility (IVX) for the given expiration to determine its value. Based on our experience, it is better to consider the area between the expected move and the 1STD as the true representation of the original 68% rule.
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🔶 USAGE
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🔹 Create a new empty layout for the screener!
You can access this from the dropdown menu in the upper right corner. In the popup window, name it as you like, for example, "Option Screener."
🔹 Hide the candlestick chart
Make the chart invisible using the "Hide" option from the three-dot dropdown menu located in the upper left corner.
🔹 Other Unwanted Elements
If other unnecessary elements are distracting you (e.g., economic data, volume, default grid), you can easily remove them from the layout. Right-click on the empty chart area. Here, click on the gear (Settings) icon and remove everything from the "Events" tab, as well as from the "Trading" tab. Under the "Canvas" tab, it is recommended to set the "Grid lines" setting to "None."
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🔶 Screener Settings
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Naturally, the font size and position can be easily adjusted.
Additionally, there are two basic usage modes: manual input or using the preset list.
🔹If you selected “Manual Below” in the preset dropdown, the tickers you chose from the dropdown (up to a maximum of 40) will be displayed. The panel name will be the one you specified.
🔹If you selected a pre-assembled list , the manually entered list will be ignored, and the preset list will be displayed. (In the future, we will expand the preset list based on your feedback!).
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🔶 Best Practices for TanukiTrade Option Screener:
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🔹 Every Preset on a New Layout:
If you following the steps above, you easy can setup this screener in one window with one split layout:
🔹 Split Layout:
- Left Side: The underlying asset with our Options IV Overlay (IVR, Deltas, Expected Move, STD1, Skew visualized) along with the Enhanced Murrey Math Indicator and Option Expiry.
- Right Side: Searching for opportunities using our Options Screener.
Opportunities Search
🔹 Everything in One Layout + One Window:
This is the all-in-one view:
- The underlying asset with our Options IV Overlay (IVR, Deltas, Expected Move, STD1, Skew visualized)
- Enhanced Murrey Math Indicator and Option Expiry
- Options Screener on the left
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🔶 ADDITIONAL IMPORTANT COMMENTS
- U.S. market only:
Since we only deal with liquid option chains: this option indicator only works for the USA options market and do not include future contracts; we have implemented each selected symbol individually.
- Why is there a slight difference between the displayed data and my live brokerage data? There are two reasons for this, and one is beyond our control.
- Brokerage Calculation Differences:
Every brokerage has slight differences in how they calculate metrics like IV and IVx. If you open three windows for TOS, TastyTrade, and IBKR side by side, you will notice that the values are minimally different. We had to choose a standard, so we use the formulas and mathematical models described by TastyTrade when analyzing the options chain and drawing conclusions.
- Option-data update frequency:
According to TradingView's regulations and guidelines, we can update external data a maximum of 5 times per day. We strive to use these updates in the most optimal way:
(1st update) 15 minutes after U.S. market open
(2nd, 3rd, 4th updates) 1.5–3 hours during U.S. market open hours
(5th update) 10 minutes before market close.
You don’t need to refresh your window, our last refreshed data-pack is always automatically applied to your indicator , and you can see the time elapsed since the last update at the bottom of your indicator.
- Weekly illiquid expiries:
The Weekly Horizontal IVx Skew may not carry relevant information for instruments not included in the 'Weeklies & Volume Masters' preset package.
-Timeframe Issues:
Our option indicator visualizes relevant data on a daily resolution. If you see strange or incorrect data (e.g., when the options data was last updated), always switch to a daily (1D) timeframe. If you still see strange data, please contact us.
Disclaimer:
Our option indicator uses approximately 15min-3 hour delayed option market snapshot data to calculate the main option metrics. Exact realtime option contract prices are never displayed; only derived metrics and interpolated delta are shown to ensure accurate and consistent visualization. Due to the above, this indicator can only be used for decision support; exclusive decisions cannot be made based on this indicator . We reserve the right to make errors.This indicator is designed for options traders who understand what they are doing. It assumes that they are familiar with options and can make well-informed, independent decisions. We work with public data and are not a data provider; therefore, we do not bear any financial or other liability.
Event on charts**Event on Charts Indicator**
This indicator visually marks significant events on your chart. It is highly customizable, allowing you to activate or deactivate different groups of events and choose whether to display the event text directly on the chart or only when hovered over. Each group of events can be configured with distinct settings such as height mode, color, and label style.
### Key Features:
- **Group Activation:** Enable or disable different groups of events based on your analysis needs.
- **Text Display Options:** Choose to display event texts directly on the chart or only on hover.
- **Customizable Appearance:** Adjust the height mode, offset multiplier, bubble color, text color, and label shape for each group.
- **Predefined Events:** Includes predefined events for major crashes, FED rate changes, SPX tops and bottoms, geopolitical conflicts, economic events, disasters, and significant Bitcoin events.
### Groups Included:
1. **Crash Events:** Marks major market crashes.
2. **FED Rate Events:** Indicates changes in the Federal Reserve rates.
3. **SPX Top Events:** Highlights market tops for the S&P 500.
4. **Geopolitical Conflicts:** Marks significant geopolitical events.
5. **Economic Events:** Highlights important economic events such as bankruptcies and crises.
6. **Disaster and Cyber Events:** Indicates major disasters and cyber attacks.
7. **Bitcoin Events:** Marks significant events in the Bitcoin market.
8. **SPX Bottom Events:** Highlights market bottoms for the S&P 500.
### Usage:
This indicator is useful for traders and analysts who want to keep track of historical events that could impact market behavior. By visualizing these events on the chart, you can better understand market reactions and make informed decisions.
Universal RPPI Indices & Futures [SS Premium]Hello everyone,
For the much-anticipated indicator release, the universal RPPI for Futures and Indices!
If you follow me, chances are you know this indicator by now, since its the basis of all of my analyses and target prices, but if not, let me introduce you!
What is it?
The RPPI for Indices & Futures is essentially a compendium indicator. It contains hundreds of, just over 100 different math models of various futures and indices.
These models are designed to forecast the current targets on multiple timeframes including:
1. The daily
2. The weekly
3. The monthly
4. The Three Month (for SPY and QQQ ONLY)
5. The 6 Month (for DJI, SPX and USOIL/CLI1! ONLY)
6. The annual (for DJI, SPX and USOIL/CLI1! ONLY)
7. The 3 hour
So I will go over the details of the models within the indicators compendium and how they are produced. If you are not interested, just skip to the next section!
What is a model and how is it produced?
Models are math equations and frameworks that attempt to predict future behavior. They are developed in many ways and through many methods. In this particular indicator, each index and future is unique and has been created in various ways, such as using principles of data smoothing, data interpolation, data substitution and data omission.
All this means is, I have manually adjusted model parameters to correct for rare, outlier events. The outcome is having a more accurate model that is better prepared to predict what you want it to predict.
Now let's get into the indicator use.
The first thing we need to talk about is selecting a model type. Different model types are available on a handful of stocks in the indicator, such as SPY, QQQ, DJI and DIA, and so it is important to explain the difference.
Corrected vs Uncorrected Models (i.e. Low Precision vs High Precision Models)
In the settings menu, you will see the second option that reads "Precision". This is where you have the ability to select the model type.
"High Precision" is a corrected model. It is a model that I have used data manipulation for (like the examples above) to enhance its accuracy.
"Low Precision" is a UNCORRECTED model. These models have undergone no data manipulation and are just raw projections.
Which do you use?
There are only a handful of tickers that have both models, like SPY, GLD1! and DJI (among others). Some tickers perform better with low precision models, others perform better with high precision models.
To know what model works best with which stock, the indicator will tell you. At the bottom of the settings table, simply select "Show Model Data":
Selecting this, you will get a table that looks like this:
It will tell you the available model types and which one works best. For IWM, the high-precision corrected model is best. This is true for QQQ and NQ1! as well. However, for SPY and ES1!, the uncorrected model is actually better:
Sometimes, different models perform better at various levels of precision, for example, high on the monthly but low on the daily.
This is why I have omitted this option for the majority of stocks. I don't want this to be confusing to use. For 90% of the included tickers, I have selected the model of best fit. However, for a few of the very popular and volatile tickers (ES, NQ specifically), I have included the ability to use both.
Rule of Thumb:
The rule of thumb with selecting high vs low, is essentially this:
a) If the market is hugely volatility with major swings intraday that exceed its normal behaviour, switch to the low precesion model. This will not be skewed by the massive swings.
b) If the market is stable, trendy or range bound, but not trending beyond its normal, general behaviour, keep it at high precision.
With that, you will be good to go!
Using the indicator:
The indicator is intended as a standalone indicator. Of course, you can combine other indicators that you like to help you out, but there is a strategy version of this that will be released within the coming days/weeks, as this is intended to be a full strategy in and of itself.
As with the universal forecaster, you are given threshold levels that are labelled "Bullish Condition" and "Bearish Condition", a break and hold of the "Bullish Condition" and it is a long to the high targets. Inverse for the bearish condition.
In addition to these conditionals, the indicator also provides you with a high probability retracement level. These are available on the weekly, monthly and higher timeframes. A special moving retracement level is available for SPY only, however it moves based on the PA to give you a sort of POC.
Testing Model Performance:
It is possible to see model performance. At the bottom of the settings menu, select the option to "Show Demographic Data". You need to be sure you are on the chart of the selected timeframe.
This is ES1! on the daily timeframe. It shows you the demographics, i.e. the extent targets are hit, the extent that the high prob retracement targets are missed, the extent that ES closes in and out of its daily range.
This is very valuable information. This table is essentially saying there is only a 10% chance that ES will close above its range and a 9% chance ES closes below its range. This means, that the most ideal setups are a move outside of its range!!
You can view it on all timeframes. If your chart isn't aligned with the lookback, you will get a warning sign:
Misc Functions:
Show price accumulation:
There is an option to toggle on price accumulation. It will show you the amount of accumulation in each of the ranges:
This will show where the accumulation of price rests in relation to the targets.
Autoregression Assessment:
You can have the indicator plot an autoregressive trendline of the expected stock trajectory. You can select the forecast length and it will plot the direction it suspects the stock will go:
Show Standard Deviation:
In the menu, you can toggle on the show standard deviation function. This will plot the standard deviation that each price rests at. The default timeframe for standard deviation is the daily. If you are looking at the weekly, please select the weekly timeframe.
This is helpful because you can see which targets are likely based on where the standard deviation rests. In the above example, a move to the low range would be a move to -2 standard deviations and beyond. This is not something that a ticker would normally do in general circumstances.
FAQ Table:
There is also an option to display an FAQ table. This will show you model revisions and pending revision dates. This will allow you to see when each model was last updated and when new updates will be pushed:
Which models does this contain?
The indicator contains models for the following stocks:
SPY
QQQ
DIA
DJI
ES1!
SPX
NQ1!
NDX
SOXX
IWM
RTY
GCL1! (Gold)
CL1! / USOIL (Oil)
XLE
XLF
YM1!
And some more are in the works (like JETS).
NOTE: Feel free to leave a comment of future ones you would like to see!
The indicator will automatically select the model for whichever ticker you are on.
Some models are cross-compatible, such as CL1! and USOIL, but the indicator is programmed to recognize those that are cross-compatible and auto-select those models.
From there, you just need to select the timeframe you wish to view!
And that is the indicator! I know very wordy explanation but wanted to cover all basis on the indicator so you can be well prepared!
As always, leave your questions, and comments below, and safe trades!
Ticker Correlation Reference IndicatorHello,
I am super excited to be releasing this Ticker Correlation assessment indicator. This is a big one so let us get right into it!
Inspiration:
The inspiration for this indicator came from a similar indicator by Balipour called the Correlation with P-Value and Confidence Interval. It’s a great indicator, you should check it out!
I used it quite a lot when looking for correlations; however, there were some limitations to this indicator’s functionality that I wanted. So I decided to make my own indicator that had the functionality I wanted. I have been using this for some time but decided to actual spruce it up a bit and make it user friendly so that I could share it publically. So let me get into what this indicator does and, most importantly, the expanded functionality of this indicator.
What it does:
This indicator determines the correlation between 2 separate tickers. The user selects the two tickers they wish to compare and it performs a correlation assessment over a defaulted 14 period length and displays the results. However, the indicator takes this much further. The complete functionality of this indicator includes the following:
1. Assesses the correlation of all 4 ticker variables (Open, High, Low and Close) over a user defined period of time (defaulted to 14);
2. Converts both tickers to a Z-Score in order to standardize the data and provide a side by side comparison;
3. Displays areas of high and low correlation between all 4 variables;
4. Looks back over the consistency of the relationship (is correlation consistent among the two tickers or infrequent?);
5. Displays the variance in the correlation (there may be a statistically significant relationship, but if there is a high variance, it means the relationship is unstable);
6. Permits manual conversion between prices; and
7. Determines the degree of statistical significance (be it stable, unstable or non-existent).
I will discuss each of these functions below.
Function 1: Assesses the correlation of all 4 variables.
The only other indicator that does this only determines the correlation of the close price. However, correlation between all 4 variables varies. The correlation between open prices, high prices, low prices and close prices varies in statistically significant ways. As such, this indicator plots the correlation of all 4 ticker variables and displays each correlation.
Assessing this matters because sometimes a stock may not have the same magnitude in highs and lows as another stock (one stock may be more bullish, i.e. attain higher highs in comparison to another stock). Close price is helpful but does not pain the full picture. As such, the indicator displays the correlation relationship between all 4 variables (image below):
Function 2: Converts both tickers to Z-Score
Z-Score is a way of standardizing data. It simply measures how far a stock is trading in relation to its mean. As such, it is a way to express both tickers on a level playing field. Z-Score was also chosen because the Z-Score Values (0 – 4) also provide an appropriate scale to plot correlation lines (which range from 0 to 1).
The primary ticker (Ticker 1) is plotted in blue, the secondary comparison ticker (Ticker 2) is plotted in a colour changing format (which will be discussed below). See the image below:
Function 3: Displays areas of high and low correlation
While Ticker 1 is plotted in a static blue, Ticker 2 (the comparison ticker) is plotted in a dynamic, colour changing format. It will display areas of high correlation (i.e. areas with a P value greater than or equal to 0.9 or less than and equal to -0.9) in green, areas of moderate correlation in white. Areas of low correlation (between 0.4 and 0 or -0.4 and 0) are in red. (see image below):
Function 4: Checks consistency of relationship
While at the time of assessing a stock there very well maybe a high correlation, whether that correlation is consistent or not is the question. The indicator employs the use of the SMA function to plot the average correlation over a defined period of time. If the correlation is consistently high, the SMA should be within an area of statistical significance (over 0.5 or under -0.5). If the relationship is inconsistent, the SMA will read a lower value than the actual correlation.
You can see an example of this when you compare ETH to Tezos in the image below:
You can see that the correlation between ETH and Tezo’s on the high level seems to be inconsistent. While the current correlation is significant, the SMA is showing that the average correlation between the highs is actually less than 0.5.
The indicator also tells the user narratively the degree of consistency in the statistical relationship. This will be discussed later.
Function 5: Displays the variance
When it comes to correlation, variance is important. Variance simply means the distance between the highest and lowest value. The indicator assess the variance. A high degree of variance (i.e. a number surpassing 0.5 or greater) generally means the consistency and stability of the relationship is in issue. If there is a high variance, it means that the two tickers, while seemingly significantly correlated, tend to deviate from each other quite extensively.
The indicator will tell the user the variance in the narrative bar at the bottom of the chart (see image below):
Function 6: Permits manual conversion of price
One thing that I frequently want and like to do is convert prices between tickers. If I am looking at SPX and I want to calculate a price on SPY, I want to be able to do that quickly. This indicator permits you to do that by employing a regression based formula to convert Ticker 1 to Ticker 2.
The user can actually input which variable they would like to convert, whether they want to convert Ticker 1 Close to Ticker 2 Close, or Ticker 1 High to Ticker 2 High, or low or open.
To do this, open the settings and click “Permit Manual Conversion”. This will then take the current Ticker 1 Close price and convert it to Ticker 2 based on the regression calculations.
If you want to know what a specific price on Ticker 1 is on Ticker 2, simply click the “Allow Manual Price Input” variable and type in the price of Ticker 1 you want to know on Ticker 2. It will perform the calculation for you and will also list the standard error of the calculation.
Below is an example of calculating a SPY price using SPX data:
Above, the indicator was asked to convert an SPX price of 4,100 to a SPY price. The result was 408.83 with a standard error of 4.31, meaning we can expect 4,100 to fall within 408.83 +/- 4.31 on SPY.
Function 7: Determines the degree of statistical significance
The indicator will provide the user with a narrative output of the degree of statistical significance. The indicator looks beyond simply what the correlation is at the time of the assessment. It uses the SMA and the highest and lowest function to make an assessment of the stability of the statistical relationship and then indicates this to the user. Below is an example of IWM compared to SPY:
You will see, the indicator indicates that, while there is a statistically significant positive relationship, the relationship is somewhat unstable and inconsistent. Not only does it tell you this, but it indicates the degree of inconsistencies by listing the variance and the range of the inconsistencies.
And below is SPY to DIA:
SPY to BTCUSD:
And finally SPY to USDCAD Currency:
Other functions:
The indicator will also plot the raw or smoothed correlation result for the Open, High, Low or Close price. The default is to close price and smoothed. Smoothed just means it is displaying the SMA over the raw correlation score. Unsmoothing it will show you the raw correlation score.
The user also has the ability to toggle on and off the correlation table and the narrative table so that they can just review the chart (the side by side comparison of the 2 tickers).
Customizability
All of the functions are customizable for the most part. The user can determine the length of lookback, etc. The default parameters for all are 14. The only thing not customizable is the assessment used for determining the stability of a statistical relationship (set at 100 candle lookback) and the regression analysis used to convert price (10 candle lookback).
User Notes and important application tips:
#1: If using the manual calculation function to convert price, it is recommended to use this on the hourly or daily chart.
#2: Leaving pre-market data on can cause some errors. It is recommended to use the indicator with regular market hours enabled and extended market hours disabled.
#3: No ticker is off limits. You can compare anything against anything! Have fun with it and experiment!
Non-Indicator Specific Discussions:
Why does correlation between stocks mater?
This can matter for a number of reasons. For investors, it is good to diversify your portfolio and have a good array of stocks that operate somewhat independently of each other. This will allow you to see how your investments compare to each other and the degree of the relationship.
Another function may be getting exposure to more expensive tickers. I am guilty of trading IWM to gain exposure to SPY at a reduced cost basis :-).
What is a statistically significant correlation?
The rule of thumb is anything 0.5 or greater is considered statistically significant. The ideal setup is 0.9 or more as the effect is almost identical. That said, a lot of factors play into statistical significance. For example, the consistency and variance are 2 important factors most do not consider when ascertaining significance. Perhaps IWM and SPY are significantly correlated today, but is that a reliable relationship and can that be counted on as a rule?
These are things that should be considered when trading one ticker against another and these are things that I have attempted to address with this indicator!
Final notes:
I know I usually do tutorial videos. I have not done one here, but I will. Check back later for this.
I hope you enjoy the indicator and please feel free to share your thoughts and suggestions!
Safe trades all!
Opening Hour/Closing Hour Indices Statistics: high/low times; 5mVery specific indicator designed for 5min timeframe, to show the statistical timings of the highs and lows of Opening hour (9:30-10am) and Closing hour (3pm-4pm) NY time
~~Shown here on SPX 5min chart. Works all variants of the US indices. SPX and SPY typically show more days of history (non-extended session =>> more bars).
//Purpose:
-To get statistics on the timings of the high and low of the opening hour and the high & low of the closing hour.
//Design & Limitations:
- Designed for the 5minute chart ONLY . Need a sweet spot of 'bucket' size for the statistics: to allow meaningful comparison between times.
-Will also display on 1min chart but NOT the statistics panel, only the realtime data (today's opening hour/ closing hour timings).
-Can be slow to load depending on server load at the time. This is becasue of the multiple usage of looping array functions. Please be patient when loading or changing settings.
//User inputs:
-Standard formatting options: highlight color, table text color. Toggle on/off independently
-Decimal % percision (default = 0, i.e. 23%. If set to 1 => 22.8%)
-Show statistics: Show Opening hour statistics, Show Closing hour statistics
//Notes:
-Days of history shown at top of table; this is the size of the dataset. i.e. 254 here (254 trading days) =>> 254 opening hour highs, 254 closing hour lows etc.
--to illustrate with the above: 18% of those 254 closing hour highs occured on the 15:00 5min candle (i.e. between 15:00 and 15:05).
-SPY or SPX offer the largest history/dataset (circa 254 trading days).
-Note that the final timing in each hour is 10:25am and 15:55pm respectively: this is because the 10:25am 5min candle essentially ends at 10:30am =>> we properly captures the opening hour this way
-Pro+ users will get less data history than Premium users (half as much, due to 10k vs 20k bars history limit).
Fair Value Strategy UltimateThis is a strategy using an index's (SPX, NDX, RUT) Fair Value derived from Net Liquidity.
Net Liquidity function is simply: Fed Balance Sheet - Treasury General Account - Reverse Repo Balance
Formula for calculating the fair value of and Index using Net Liquidity looks like this: net_liquidity/1000000000/scalar - subtractor
The Index Fair Value is then subtracted from the Index value which creates an oscillating diff value.
When diff is greater than the overbought threshold, Index is considered overbought and we go short/sell.
When diff is less than the oversold signal, Index is considered oversold and we cover/buy.
The net liquidity values I calculate outside of TradingView. If you'd like the strategy to work for future dates, you'll need to update the reference to my NetLiquidityLibrary , which I update daily.
Parameters:
Index: SPX, NDX, RUT
Strategy: Short Only, Long Only, Long/Short
Inverse (bool): check if using an inverse ETF to go long instead of short.
Scalar (float)
Subtractor (int)
Overbought Threshold (int)
Oversold Threshold (int)
Start After Date: When the strategy should start trading
Close Date: Day to close open trades. I just like it to get complete results rather than the strategy ending with open trades.
Optimal Parameters:
I've optimized the parameters for each index using the python backtesting library and they are as follows =>
SPX
Scalar: 1.1
Subtractor: 1425
OB Threshold: 0
OS Threshold: -175
NDX
Scalar: 0.5
Subtractor: 250
OB Threshold: 0
OS Threshold: -25
RUT
Scalar: 3.2
Subtractor: 50
OB Threshold: 25
OS Threshold: -25
S&P500 Sectors Relative Overviewdear fellows,
this indicator is yet another representation of S&P 500 industry sectors.
it is inspired by mr. stanley drukenmiller who in an interview mentioned that he knows no better market forecaster than the inside of the sp500 itself, which are its industry sectors.
thus, we have been for a while thinking on how to represent the performance of these sectors such that one could visually estimated the current stage of the cycle, and grasp the next one.
unfortunatelly, we believe this cannot be achieved by solely looking into SP500 industry sectors. perhaps coupled with a broad market indicator like our MRI, for instance, one can have greater odds of success.
what does it show
it displays colorfully through out time how each sector travels through its 200 period high and lows.
note that an alternative view of the sectors relatively to SPX could be considered, but by now we focused on the relative performance against its recent past (200 period, regardless the timeframe).
over the colored columns we've plotted in white the SPX under the same logic.
how is it calculated
each sector price is converged into a percentage of how near it is to its 200 period low.
so, when the price of the sector index equals the 200 period min, it is valued as 0.
when it equals the 200 period max, it is valued as 100.
same for the white plot of SPX above the colored columns.
thus a flat reading at 100 makes it indistinguishable a continued ATH extension from a pause at the ATH.
how is it colored
when the converted price results in a value lesser or equal 33, its respective bar is colored in red.
when it is between 33 and 66, the bar is colored in yellow.
and when it lies above 66, in green.
on how is it grouped
the specific ordering of the sectors is not yet settled.
we've grouped it visually based on likelihood.
on how to use this indicator
although we believe that it does not suffice for any conclusion on the market, we do not believe that an above chart can improve the resulting insight. so, at least by the time being, we recommend it to be stared alone, although not exclusively, by trader.
we are open to suggestions of any sort.
your feedback is much appreciated.
this is a work we'd have been looking for a while to put it out.
enjoy.
best regards.
Price Divergence IndicatorThis Price Divergence Indicator indicator modifies the standard Divergence Indicator to look for price divergences between the current chart and any other selected TradingView chart.
The thesis that this indicator is built upon:
Prices on assets or indices that are normally correlated move in lock step. Where there are deviations between the confirmed highs or lows of two assets or indices it is likely that they will "catch up" in the near future.
By default it will load the price data for the SPX and look for price divergences on the current chart timeframe. Any TradingView Symbol can be selected as the 'Comparison Source' and any timeframe. Some of the options I've been trying out include:
SPX vs NDQ
XAO vs SPX
UK100 vs NDQM
MSFT vs NDQM
GOOG vs NDQM
AMZN vs MSFT
BTC vs ETH
BTC vs NDQ
BTC vs DXY
I've found looking for divergences on a longer timeframe can be useful and don't expect any meaningful results if you set it to shorter than chart timeframes.
Alerts can be created based on any of the divergences and the 'Backtest Buy Signal' can be used to send notification to a backtester (bull = 2, hidden bull = 1, neutral = 0, hidden bear = -1, bear = -2), this is plotted to display.none, so enable it in Settings - Style and disable all other plots to see it.
Divergences are measured between the CONFIRMED peaks of the two charts. The confirmation timeframe is set using 'Pivot Lookback Right'. The lower the lookback the quicker the signal and the more likely it is to not have hit an actual peak, a higher lookback will give a much more dependable signal but the move may be finished by the time the alert actually fires. The "Plot When Alerts Fire" option should give you an idea (top and bottom triangles) of what to expect, but you should watch bar replays to understand how your setting will impact when alerts are created and potential false positives.
Magic Line 2.0 βWELCOME TO MAGIC LINE 2.0 β
This indicator is intended to show current market sentiment – a reflection of that which market internals (VIX, ADD, TICK, VOLD and TRIN) are doing.
The indicator does not make any reference to, or have any knowledge of, SPX price action.
If Magic Line is green, that suggests that market sentiment is rising. If Magic Line is red, that suggests that market sentiment is falling.
If Magic Line is above zero, that usually suggests an overall positive market sentiment, and if it is only slightly red, then SPX price action could still be bullish. And vice versa.
USERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO:
- Adjust the Main Parameters … find out what works for you!
- Adjust the Flat Zone … if you are using a longer timeframe, a higher value in the Flat Zone might be beneficial
Users are also encouraged to play with the Internals, in particular:
- Turn the individual Internals on / off … experiment; what happens if you turn off everything, other than say ADD?
- Adjust the relative weighting of each Internal
It's not really recommended to play with the EMA weightings (either of the internals, or the fast / slow lines) - but you're welcome to do so, if you wish!
ADDITIONAL NOTES
Market internals are often not very beneficial for trading futures, or long options. If you’re not careful, you can get badly chopped up.
If you set Grind Correction to max. (100) you’ll get a positive trend even on a grind day. The downside is that on a more volatile day, the indicator will be a little slower in responding.
If Magic Line is flat, or just wandering around in the chop zone, SPX price action may well be flat, slowly grinding, or choppy.
This has been back-tested and forward-tested during 2022 (April – August) market conditions (Trading View doesn’t give short-timeframe data further back) . If market conditions change significantly, I may find that I need to adjust / update some of the coding. TBA …
Disclaimer; it is of course recommended to have all market internals open individually, rather than relying on a ‘Market Internals Smoothie’ for making trading decisions! :)
Racer Correlation [racer8]This indicator gauges correlation between 2 markets using my own method I invented. It is far superior to the correlation coefficient in that it maintains steady correlation values, meaning less false signals regarding correlation. Yet, the indicator's calculation is very simple in fact...
It simply calculates the percentage of moves in the same direction as the other market. So if MSFT moved in the same direction as SPX 80% of the time, then the indicator would show you a value of 80. Unlike correlation coefficient, you can calculate exactly how many of MSFT's bars moved in the same direction as SPX's bars. Everytime MSFT moves in the same direction as SPX, it is included in the percentage of positively correlated moves.
Closing prices are used solely in the indicator's calculations. All indicator values represent a percentage. Also, I recommend a length of at least 100 periods.
Values between 0% and 25% indicate strong negative correlation. (bright red)
Values between 25% and 33% indicate moderate negative correlation. (red)
Values between 33% and 50% indicate weak negative correlation. (dark red)
Values between 50% and 67% indicate weak positive correlation. (dark green)
Values between 67% and 75% indicate moderate positive correlation. (green)
Values between 75% and 100% indicate strong positive correlation. (bright green)........Enjoy :)
Index of indexxesHi, this is pretty straight forward. This is the DXY equivalent of NDX, SPX, RUT, DJ. It's a full index of the US market.
You can play with the weights, drag and drop, let's say SPX and see how SPX performs compared to the four major indexxes.
Percentage Relative StrengthA relative strength indicator that compares your main symbol (one on your chart) strength to another symbol by percentage.
The result is plotted as a histogram showing which symbol is rising or falling more in percentage.
In case your chart symbol is TSLA (Tesla) and the indicator 'Symbol to compare' is SPX:
GREEN area (above zero) means TSLA is rising more than the SPX.
RED area (below zero) means TSLA is falling more than the SPX.
To these who wants to understand calculation, it's pretty straightforward.
For each asset we calculate everyday percentage change based on previous close and current close.
We take main asset (chart symbol) percentage and subtract it from percent of change of the symbol we want to compare to.
Result are smoothed by SMA (Simple Moving Average)
You can select different indexes or cfds such as S&P500 (SPX), NASDAQ 100 (NSX), RUSSELL 2000 (RUT) and NASDAQ (IXIC).
Default is S&P 500 (SPX).
Enjoy and Like if you like.
Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI)This is the Beta release of the Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI), expect an update by the end of year.
The Momentum Reversal Indicator (MRI) is an advanced script for professional traders who have taken the time to learn all its functions. It is a time based indicator that anticipates the ending of trends based on the momentum in price movement. As an important secondary element, MRI also suggests when a trend might be starting or continuing, which a trader can certainly take advantage of. It is useful across all assets and all time frames but is ideal in more liquid assets on Daily & Weekly time frames.
Since this is an Invite Only Script, I will not be making the code public nor explain the math logic of the code here in TradingView. TradingView also limits any external links, but those interested in details or access should be resourceful enough to find all the information they need on my website. However, I will try and explain the usefulness of the MRI indicator with the following images.
MRI will display a downwards red arrow above the candle when the bullish trend is ending and an upwards green arrow above the candle when the bearish trend is ending. The candle before the MRI top/bottom is marked by an orange arrow warning you that the trend might be ending on the next candle. (It's common that the trend ends on the candle before or after this MRI signal, I personally like to use single candlestick reversals for confirmation like Shooting Stars, Hammers and Doji). The orange arrow will disappear if a green or red arrow shows up, but will remain on the chart if on the following candle, the conditions needed to make the MRI signal are not met. See NYSE:UBER chart below:
When the number above the arrow is something other than a 1, it indicates a strong trend and the number represents consecutive instances of hitting that MRI extreme condition. These consecutive instances have been known to cause major changes in trend and the larger the number, the bigger the move might be. Here is a recent example of the daily chart hitting a 3 on the MRI, with the market falling 6.5% in the following 3 days and 10% over the next 3 weeks (you can see this in the image used to publish this script)
The biggest number I have seen is a 5, this occurred on the weekly chart of AMEX:CBOE as it was followed by a 30% correction over the next two weeks.
Following an MRI Top/Bottom there are three different Extensions of trend if the price continues to move in the same direction and does not reverse with the MRI. It’s up to the trader to decide which of the three they find most relevant, for me it’s B & C, and there are settings you can use to remove what you don't care for from display. They have a different but similar rule set which is explained to those serious about the indicator and purchase access, which comes with full explanations in a video. Here is a recent chart of NASDAQ:AMZN for an example:
And here is a weekly chart of NYSE:GM topping on Extension C with the MRI warning (Orange Arrow). Extensions A & B also provided good profit takes after a big run up
These Extensions are particularly useful when they occur on (or right around) an MRI Top/Bottom. Here is an example where it timed the 2018 stock market SPCFD:SPX top perfectly leading directly into an MRI Bottom two weeks later (Also notice how we can show multiple timeframes hitting MRI levels)
In addition to Extensions, an MRI Top/Bottom generates a Resistance/Support line (dotted) and a Breakout Line (solid). The Support/Resistance not only has a tendency to reverse the price but also increases the probability of the MRI leading to a full reversal if the line is not broken. By breaking this dotted line, you increase the probability of entering the Extension of Trend. The Breakout line tends to notify the trader that the trend is very strong and continuing. As an example of Support line, here is a recent 1 hour BITSTAMP:BTCUSD chart
Here is FX_IDC:EURUSD as of today on a daily chart which shows the Extension of trends once these critical support/resistance and breakout lines are taken out.
The indicator also shows you if the MRI is hitting critical levels on higher level time frames. We have set the defaults to Hourly (H), Daily (D), Weekly (W), Monthly (M) and Yearly (Y). You can turn these off in settings and you can also add up to 3 additional custom timeframes of your choice to the display list. When MRI lines up across several time frames it has a history of causing significant moves, here is an example of NSE:TITAN which fell 25% after aligning with the Daily, Weekly and Monthly timeframes for a top.
The recent top in TVC:GOLD came on a Friday which had a Daily Extension B & C top. The following Monday kicked off a weekly MRI Top and a week later was the start of September, which happens to be a Monthly MRI Top. Gold is still trending lower as of today and is down 11% since this top less than 2 months ago.
One final note on the multi-timeframe is that if you have the Hourly (H) set to display on a chart that only has end of day data, the Indicator will not work so make sure to uncheck all timeframes that can't be identified in the settings.
Here are additional charts that show the power of MRI including cryptocurrencies:
Recent 25% crash in BINANCE:BNBBTC
Of course we have to mention BITSTAMP:BTCUSD here is how MRI called the time period around the big crash in March 2020. There was a very timely MRI Top several weeks prior and once the Support line broke, it went right down into a nice MRI Bottom.
Volatility Index Weekly & Daily as of today CBOE:VIX
Here is the current look at the weekly USD chart TVC:DXY you can see how it tops on Extension C in March and seems to have bottomed with the MRI in late August.
One more look at a stock chart, here we have the Weekly NASDAQ:SBUX as of today, it perfectly oscillates between the MRI calls the last two years.
Disclaimer : Trading is risky and using MRI (like any other indicator) does not guarantee positive returns. It does not blindly provide Buy/Sell/Short calls and the trader will need to evaluate every alert.
“The average man doesn’t wish to be told that it is a bull or a bear market. What he desires is to be told specifically which particular stock to buy or sell. He wants to get something for nothing. He does not wish to work. He doesn’t even wish to have to think.” - Jesse Livermore
Personal Note: I would like to credit the following people that all lead to the knowledge needed to build the MRI: Larry Williams, Tom DeMark, Tyler Jenks, Martin Armstrong & Kevin O’Dowd (most of whom I have met or interacted with)
Thank you everyone, if this indicator interests you, you know what to do...
Good Luck Trader,
Tone Vays
Probability: Bull/Bear Dominance | Ratio | Bar CountIntro
What's the probability of the next bar being red? How about green? Well, there are many ways to quantify the probability but I am presenting just one stupidly simple (but generally accurate) way to measure it.
Strangely... no one has done this before that I can find. I try to check if someone else has done it first (Pro Tip: Plz do this. We honestly don't need the 5 trillionth "MTF MAs" script.)
Indicator
Its a basic counting script, but the nice thing about this script is you choose the time range. It starts counting from a specified point of your choosing. It counts up the bull bars and bear bars separately.
Bull Bar = Close > Open
Bear Bar = Open > Close
You can look at them in sum or as a ratio of Green Bars : Red Bars
I know, it's almost too simple. But, here's some interesting food for thought from a layman to fellow laymen.
Analysis/Edge
Between the time of candle open and candle close, the price can do one of three things, close higher, close lower, or close equal to.
'Equal to' is rare on higher timeframes in liquid markets and it provides no useful information. Thus, we'll nix it for purposes of this conversation.
So boil it down. The next candle is going to be a red candle or a green candle.
It is popular to refer to the general probability of most candles as 50/50, with trader's mission in life being to seek an edge that tilts the probabilities slightly in their favor.
The truth is the odds are probably never actually 50/50, but knowing the precisely correct probability is unknowable, just like the accuracy of a weather forecast is inherently unknowable. What we're trying to do as traders is develop systems that give us predictive probabilistic outcomes that correspond with future realities based on various ways of measuring the market (most often heavily dependent on the past).
The reality is that the market can be measured in many, many different ways. The important thing is that you measure it in a way that is accurate, relevant, and universally applicable.
So look at this indicator here:
You start from a point in time on a chosen timeframe and you put red bars in the red column, green in the green column, and count them all up.
Then you make a ratio, in this case, Green : Red.
What the ratio shows you is the percentage of green bars compared to red bars . At the time of this screenshot, the 4h on the SPX starting from the 2020 bottom is showing a ratio of 1.2.
This means there have been 20% more green bars than there have been red bars.
Now there are 1,000 directions you can take this discussion. What is the overall volatility picture, the size of the red bars vs the green bars, what happens if you miss out on the 5 biggest green bars... so many more variables that you would need to take into account to develop a true edge from this idea. But, the bottom line fact (which is what I like about this) is that we can take this data and say with a certain level of confidence that on the SPX you have a 20% better shot at making money (otherwise stated there's a 60/40 chance) if you open a LONG trade at the beginning of a 4h candle than if you open a short.
That's useful information. One could argue that it's not a complete strategy in and of itself (although I bet it could be with a couple of additional parameters). But I can tell you, based on the 4h candles in the 2020 rally if you open a short, the deck is stacked against you from this perspective. And we can actually somewhat demonstrate this to be true for our dataset because we can look at the price history and see who likely made more money. The SPX is up 1000pts off the bottom. So, thus far, for this dataset, it rings true; Bulls have been doing way better in the latter part of 2020 than the bears.
Conclusion
Predictive systems with a small number of variables tend to be more robust than a system with many variables when applied to a complex system. I may keep updating this script if people like it and determine aspects like population vs sample size, confidence intervals, volatility, and exclusion of outliers. For now, this is just an opening foray into the basic idea of how we can establish an edge in the markets. It really can be this simple.
Thanks for Reading.
ORACLE: Command Center (Macro & Correlation HUD)Overview
ORACLE is the final piece of the ecosystem. It provides Situational Awareness.
Most traders fail because they trade in a vacuum. They stare at a 5-minute chart of Gold and have no idea that the US Dollar is spiking or that Bond Yields are collapsing.
ORACLE is a multi-asset "Heads Up Display" (HUD) designed to sit on your chart and monitor the entire battlefield simultaneously. It scans 5 Custom Assets in real-time, grading their Trend, Momentum, and Volatility so you always know the "Risk Environment."
Core Capabilities
1. 🌍 The Macro Scanner (God’s Eye View) By default, ORACLE is pre-configured to monitor the "Market Movers":
DXY (Dollar Index): Currency Strength.
US10Y (10-Year Yields): The cost of money (Risk On/Risk Off).
SPX (S&P 500): General Market Health.
BTC (Bitcoin): Speculative Risk Appetite.
XAU (Gold): Safe Haven Flow.
2. 📊 The Data Engine The HUD processes four critical metrics for every asset instantly:
Trend: Uses an algorithmic EMA cloud to determine if the asset is Bullish, Bearish, or Ranging.
Momentum: Detects "Overheated" (Fire) or "Frozen" (Ice) conditions using RSI logic.
Volatility: Alerts you when an asset is "waking up" with high volatility or "sleeping."
Performance: Real-time daily percentage change to show where the money is flowing today.
How to Use (The "Hedge Fund" Correlation)
Scenario A: The Short Signal
You see a Sell signal on Gold (using NEXUS/PREDATOR).
You glance at ORACLE.
DXY is "🚀 BULLISH" and US10Y is "🚀 BULLISH."
Analysis: If the Dollar and Yields are ripping, Gold must fall.
Action: EXECUTE WITH FULL CONFIDENCE.
Scenario B: The Warning
You see a Buy signal on Bitcoin.
You glance at ORACLE.
SPX is "🐻 BEARISH" and DXY is "🚀 BULLISH."
Analysis: Risk assets are selling off. The Bitcoin signal is likely a trap.
Action: STAND DOWN.
Customization
You are not limited to the defaults. Go into the settings and change the 5 tickers to anything you want (e.g., EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDJPY) to turn ORACLE into a dedicated Forex Scanner.
Disclaimer
This tool visualizes data from multiple assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Index Construction Tool🙏🏻 The most natural mathematical way to construct an index || portfolio, based on contraharmonic mean || contraharmonic weighting. If you currently traded assets do not satisfy you, why not make your own ones?
Contraharmonic mean is literally a weighted mean where each value is weighted by itself.
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Now let me explain to you why contraharmonic weighting is really so fundamental in two ways: observation how the industry (prolly unknowably) converged to this method, and the real mathematical explanation why things are this way.
How it works in the industry.
In indexes like TVC:SPX or TVC:DJI the individual components (stocks) are weighted by market capitalization. This market cap is made of two components: number of shares outstanding and the actual price of the stock. While the number of shares holds the same over really long periods of time and changes rarely by corporate actions , the prices change all the time, so market cap is in fact almost purely based on prices itself. So when they weight index legs by market cap, it really means they weight it by stock prices. That’s the observation: even tho I never dem saying they do contraharmonic weighting, that’s what happens in reality.
Natural explanation
Now the main part: how the universe works. If you build a logical sequence of how information ‘gradually’ combines, you have this:
Suppose you have the one last datapoint of each of 4 different assets;
The next logical step is to combine these datapoints somehow in pairs. Pairs are created only as ratios , this reveals relationships between components, this is the only step where these fundamental operations are meaningful, they lose meaning with 3+ components. This way we will have 16 pairs: 4 of them would be 1s, 6 real ratios, and 6 more inverted ratios of these;
Then the next logical step is to combine all the pairs (not the initial single assets) all together. Naturally this is done via matrices, by constructing a 4x4 design matrix where each cell will be one of these 16 pairs. That matrix will have ones in the main diagonal (because these would be smth like ES/ES, NQ/NQ etc). Other cells will be actual ratios, like ES/NQ, RTY/YM etc;
Then the native way to compress and summarize all this structure is to do eigendecomposition . The only eigenvector that would be meaningful in this case is the principal eigenvector, and its loadings would be what we were hunting for. We can multiply each asset datapoint by corresponding loading, sum them up and have one single index value, what we were aiming for;
Now the main catch: turns out using these principal eigenvector loadings mathematically is Exactly the same as simply calculating contraharmonic weights of those 4 initial assets. We’re done here.
For the sceptics, no other way of constructing the design matrix other than with ratios would result in another type of a defined mean. Filling that design matrix with ratios Is the only way to obtain a meaningful defined mean, that would also work with negative numbers. I’m skipping a couple of details there tbh, but they don’t really matter (we don’t need log-space, and anyways the idea holds even then). But the core idea is this: only contraharmonic mean emerges there, no other mean ever does.
Finally, how to use the thing:
Good news we don't use contraharmonic mean itself because we need an internals of it: actual weights of components that make this contraharmonic mean, (so we can follow it with our position sizes). This actually allows us to also use these weights but not for addition, but for subtraction. So, the script has 2 modes (examples would follow):
Addition: the main one, allows you to make indexes, portfolios, baskets, groups, whatever you call it. The script will simply sum the weighted legs;
Subtraction: allows you to make spreads, residual spreads etc. Important: the script will subtract all the symbols From the first one. So if the first we have 3 symbols: YM, ES, RTY, the script will do YM - ES - RTY, weights would be applied to each.
At the top tight corner of the script you will see a lil table with symbols and corresponding weights you wanna trade: these are ‘already’ adjusted for point value of each leg, you don’t need to do anything, only scale them all together to meet your risk profile.
Symbols have to be added the way the default ones are added, one line : one symbol.
Pls explore the script’s Style setting:
You can pick a visualization method you like ! including overlays on the main chart pane !
Script also outputs inferred volume delta, inferred volume and inferred tick count calculated with the same method. You can use them in further calculations.
...
Examples of how you can use it
^^ Purple dotted line: overlay from ICT script, turned on in Style settings, the contraharmonic mean itself calculated from the same assets that are on the chart: CME_MINI:RTY1! , CME_MINI:ES1! , CME_MINI:NQ1! , CBOT_MINI:YM1!
^^ precious metals residual spread ( COMEX:GC1! COMEX:SI1! NYMEX:PL1! )
^^ CBOT:ZC1! vs CBOT:ZW1! grain spread
^^ BDI (Bid Dope Index), constructed from: NYSE:MO , NYSE:TPB , NYSE:DGX , NASDAQ:JAZZ , NYSE:IIPR , NASDAQ:CRON , OTC:CURLF , OTC:TCNNF
^^ NYMEX:CL1! & ICEEUR:BRN1! basket
^^ resulting index price, inferred volume delta, inferred volume and inferred tick count of CME_MINI:NQ1! vs CME_MINI:ES1! spread
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Synthetic assets is the whole new Universe you can jump into and never look back, if this is your way
...
∞
CRUX-3 Macro Regime Index"CRUX-3 Macro Regime Index"
Description:
CRUX-3 Macro Regime Index is a higher-timeframe macro indicator designed to evaluate how crypto markets are performing relative to traditional equities. It compares Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader altcoin market (TOTAL3) against the S&P 500 using Z-score normalization to highlight periods of relative outperformance or underperformance.
The indicator incorporates liquidity-based regime detection using Bitcoin dominance and stablecoin dominance to classify market environments as Risk-On, BTC-Led, or Risk-Off. Background shading visually highlights these regimes, helping users identify broader macro conditions rather than short-term trade signals.
CRUX-3 is intended for macro context, regime awareness, and allocation bias decisions, not for precise trade entries or timing.
How to Use:
Weekly timeframe recommended for best results
Rising Z-scores indicate crypto outperforming equities
ETH/SPX typically acts as an early rotation signal
TOTAL3/SPX confirms broader altcoin participation
Regime shading reflects liquidity conditions, not price forecasts
Regime Definitions:
Risk-On: BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance declining
BTC-Led: BTC dominance strong while stablecoin dominance eases
Risk-Off: BTC dominance and stablecoin dominance rising
Notes:
Forward regime bands are statistical reference guides based on historical behavior
This indicator does not predict future prices or market direction
Best used alongside price charts and other macro tools
Disclaimer:
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading recommendations.
Recommended Settings:
Timeframe: Weekly (1W)
Z-Score Lookback: 52
Forward Regime Bands: Enabled
DANGER SP500This indicator is designed to identify severe correlation anomalies between the Volatility Index (VIX) and the S&P 500 (SPX). It operates on the premise that a simultaneous rise in both assets often precedes market corrections or significant local tops.
The underlying concept is "fear in the rally": investors are buying equities (driving price up), but at the same time, they are aggressively buying protection (Puts), causing the VIX to spike.
⚠️ Strict Usage Rules
To guarantee the mathematical reliability of the VIX data, this indicator includes strict security restrictions:
EXCLUSIVE ASSET: Designed solely for the S&P 500 (SPX, SPY, US500, ES1!). It should not be used on Crypto or Forex, as the VIX correlation does not apply in the same way.
LOCKED TIMEFRAME: It only functions on the Daily Chart (1D).
Note: The script includes a runtime.error block that will prevent execution if you attempt to load it on intraday charts (H1, H4, etc.) to avoid false signals caused by market noise.
Visualization
Red Background: Visually highlights the exact moment the alert is triggered.
"DANGER" Label: Prints clearly above the signaled bar.
Max Price Display: Unlike other indicators that mark the close, this tool specifically labels the HIGH of the candle, allowing you to identify the exact point of price extension.
🔔 Alerts
The script is ready for TradingView Alerts. The alert message is dynamic and will include the exact High price reached during the signal candle.
Disclaimer: This script is for technical analysis purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves risk.
Market Maker Position Bars (Position Size)**Market Maker Position Bars (Position Size) – Indicator Description for TradingView**
This indicator is a clean, professional visualization tool designed for traders who track suspected **market maker / institutional positioning** (especially popular in ICT/SMC communities) on indices like the SPX, NDX, ES, etc.
It draws up to **20 horizontal position bars** directly on the chart, anchored to the very last bar, representing hypothetical long and short positions at specific price levels with corresponding position sizes.
### Key Features & Visual Logic
- **Green bars (Boxes 1–10)** → Extend to the **right** of the last bar
Represent **long positions** (bullish interest)
Default translucent green fill
- **Red bars (Boxes 11–20)** → Extend to the **left** of the last bar
Represent **short positions** (bearish interest)
Default translucent red fill
- **Bar width = Position size**
The length of each box is automatically scaled based on the absolute value you enter in “Position Size”.
Larger position → wider (longer) bar
- Each box displays **Price / Position Size** text inside (e.g., `5720.50 / 1250`)
### Fully Customizable Settings
**Global Geometry**
- Total Box Height (default 10.0) – controls vertical thickness of all boxes
**Position Size Scaling**
- Base Box Width (bars)
- Width per Position Unit – fine-tune how aggressively width grows with size
- Minimum & Maximum Bar Width – prevents boxes from becoming too tiny or excessively long
**Global Text Settings**
- Text color, size (Tiny → Huge), and bold option
**Individual Box Controls (20 independent boxes)**
- Show/Hide toggle
- SPX Price (or any symbol price level)
- Position Size (any positive/negative number; absolute value determines width)
- Fill color (override default green/red if desired)
### How It Works Internally
- All boxes are drawn only on the **last confirmed bar** (`barstate.islast`)
- Width calculation:
`Width = BaseWidth + (|Position Size| × Width per Unit)`
Clamped between Min and Max Bar Width
- Green boxes start at the current bar and extend forward (right)
- Red boxes end at the current bar and extend backward (left)
- Uses Pine Script v6 `box.new()` with `xloc.bar_index` for perfect alignment and performance
### Ideal Use Cases
- Visualizing daily/weekly **order block** or **fair value gap** interest levels with estimated size
- Mapping **dealer positioning**, gamma exposure levels, or large options interest
- Quickly seeing where the “smart money” is theoretically stacked on both sides of the market
- Clean chart markup for screenshots, mentoring, or live trading journals
A minimalist yet powerful tool favored by ICT, SMC, and footprint-style traders who want to see **where the big players might be positioned** — all in one glance without cluttering the chart with hundreds of objects.
Clean. Visual. Size-aware. Perfect for high-level market profiling.
RS Rating Multi-TimeframeRS Rating Multi-Timeframe (IBD-Style Relative Strength)
Short Description:
IBD-style Relative Strength Rating (1-99) comparing any stock's performance vs the S&P 500 across multiple timeframes.
Full Description:
Overview
This indicator calculates an IBD-style Relative Strength (RS) Rating that measures a stock's price performance relative to the S&P 500 over the past 12 months. The rating scale ranges from 1 (weakest) to 99 (strongest), telling you how a stock ranks against all other stocks in terms of relative performance.
How It Works
The RS Rating uses a weighted formula based on quarterly performance:
Last 63 days (1 quarter): 40% weight
Last 126 days (2 quarters): 20% weight
Last 189 days (3 quarters): 20% weight
Last 252 days (4 quarters): 20% weight
This weighting emphasizes recent performance while still accounting for longer-term strength.
Rating Interpretation
90-99 (Elite): Top 10% of all stocks - exceptional relative strength
80-89 (Excellent): Top 20% - strong leadership candidates
50-79 (Average): Middle of the pack
30-49 (Below Average): Underperforming the market
1-29 (Weak): Bottom 30% - avoid or consider shorting
Features
Multi-Timeframe: Works on any timeframe from 1-hour to weekly (always uses daily data for calculation)
Moving Average: Optional EMA or SMA of the RS Rating to smooth signals
Visual Zones: Color-coded zones for quick identification of strength/weakness
Signal Markers: Triangles appear when RS crosses key levels (80 and 30)
Info Table: Displays current RS Rating, change, MA value, and raw score
Alerts: Built-in alerts for key crossover events
Settings
Show Moving Average: Toggle MA line on/off
MA Length: Period for the moving average (default: 10)
MA Type: Choose between EMA or SMA
Benchmark Index: Change the comparison index (default: SP:SPX)
Show Rating Table: Toggle the info table on/off
How To Use
Buy candidates: Look for stocks with RS Rating above 80, ideally rising
Avoid: Stocks with RS Rating below 30 or falling rapidly
Confirmation: Use RS above its moving average as additional confirmation
Divergence: Watch for RS making new highs before price (bullish) or new lows before price (bearish)
Credits
RS Rating calculation methodology inspired by Investor's Business Daily (IBD) and adapted from Fred6724's RS Rating script. Percentile calibration based on analysis of ~6,600 US stocks.
Tags: relative strength, RS rating, IBD, momentum, CAN SLIM, benchmark, SPX, market leaders, stock ranking
Category: Relative Strength
BTC Price Prediction Model [Global PMI]V2🇺🇸 English Guide
1. Introduction
This indicator was created by GW Capital using Gemini Vibe Coding technology. It leverages advanced AI coding capabilities to reconstruct complex macroeconomic models into actionable trading tools.
2. Credits
Special thanks to the original model author, Marty Kendall. His research into the correlation between Bitcoin's price and macroeconomic factors lays the foundation for this algorithm.
3. Model Principles & Formula
This model calculates the "Fair Value" of Bitcoin based on four key macroeconomic pillars. It assumes that Bitcoin's price is a function of Global Liquidity, Network Security, Risk Appetite, and the Economic Cycle.
💡 Unique Insight: PMI & The 4-Year Cycle
A key distinguishing feature of this model is the hypothesis that Bitcoin's famous "4-Year Halving Cycle" may be intrinsically linked to the Global Business Cycle (PMI), rather than just supply shocks.
Therefore, the model incorporates PMI as a valuation "Amplifier".
Note: Due to TradingView data limitations, US PMI is currently used as the proxy for the global cycle.
The Formula
$$\ln(BTC) = \alpha + (1 + \beta \cdot PMI_{z}) \times $$
Global Liquidity (M2): Sum of M2 supply from US, China, Eurozone, and Japan (converted to USD). Represents the pool of fiat money available to flow into assets.
Network Security (Hashrate): Bitcoin's hashrate, representing the physical security and utility of the network.
Risk Appetite (S&P 500): Used as a proxy for global risk sentiment.
Economic Cycle (PMI Z-Score): US Manufacturing PMI is used to amplify or dampen the valuation based on where we are in the business cycle (Expansion vs. Contraction).
4. How to Use
The indicator plots the Fair Value (White Line) and four sentiment bands based on statistical deviation (Z-Score).
Sentiment Zones
🚨 Extreme Greed (Red Zone): Price > +0.3 StdDev. Historically indicates a market top or overheated sentiment.
⚠️ Greed (Orange Zone): Price > +0.15 StdDev. Bullish momentum is strong but caution is advised.
⚖️ Fair Value (White Line): The theoretical "correct" price based on macro data.
😨 Fear (Teal Zone): Price < -0.15 StdDev. Undervalued territory.
💎 Extreme Fear (Green Zone): Price < -0.3 StdDev. Historically a generational buying opportunity.
Sentiment Score (0-100)
100: Maximum Greed (Top)
50: Fair Value
0: Maximum Fear (Bottom)
5. Usage Recommendations
Timeframe: Daily (1D) or Weekly (1W) ONLY.
Reason: The underlying data sources (M2, PMI) are updated monthly. The S&P 500 and Hashrate are daily. Using this indicator on intraday charts (e.g., 15m, 1h, 4h) adds no value because the fundamental data does not change that fast.
Long-Term View: This is a macro-cycle indicator designed for identifying cycle tops and bottoms over months and years, not for day trading.
6. Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. The model relies on historical correlations which may not hold true in the future. All trading involves risk. GW Capital and the creators assume no responsibility for any trading losses.
7. Support Us ❤️
If you find this indicator useful, please Boost 👍, Comment, and add it to your Favorites! Your support keeps us going.
🇨🇳 中文说明 (Chinese Version)
1. 简介
本指标由 GW Capital 使用 Gemini Vibe Coding 技术制作。利用先进的 AI 编程能力，将复杂的宏观经济模型重构为可执行的交易工具。
2. 致谢
特别感谢模型原作者 Marty Kendall。他对这一算法的研究奠定了基础，揭示了比特币价格与宏观经济因素之间的深层联系。
3. 模型原理与公式
该模型基于四大宏观经济支柱计算比特币的“公允价值”。它假设比特币的价格是全球流动性、网络安全性、风险偏好和经济周期的函数。
💡 独家洞察：PMI 与 4年周期
本模型的一个核心独特之处在于：我们认为比特币著名的“4年减半周期”背后的真正驱动力，可能与全球商业周期 (PMI) 高度同步，而不仅仅是供应减半。
因此，模型特别引入 PMI 作为估值的“放大器” (Amplifier)。
注：由于 TradingView 数据源限制，目前采用历史数据最详尽的美国 PMI 作为全球周期的代理指标。
模型公式
$$\ln(BTC) = \alpha + (1 + \beta \cdot PMI_{z}) \times $$
全球流动性 (M2): 美、中、欧、日四大经济体的 M2 总量（折算为美元）。代表可流入资产的法币资金池。
网络安全性 (Hashrate): 比特币全网算力，代表网络的物理安全性和实用价值。
风险偏好 (S&P 500): 作为全球风险情绪的代理指标。
经济周期 (PMI Z-Score): 美国制造业 PMI 用于根据商业周期（扩张 vs 收缩）来放大或抑制估值。
4. 指标用法
指标会在图表上绘制 公允价值 (白线) 以及基于统计偏差 (Z-Score) 的四条情绪带。
情绪区间
🚨 极度贪婪 (红色区域): 价格 > +0.3 标准差。历史上通常预示市场顶部或情绪过热。
⚠️ 一般贪婪 (橙色区域): 价格 > +0.15 标准差。多头动能强劲，但需谨慎。
⚖️ 公允价值 (白线): 基于宏观数据的理论“正确”价格。
😨 一般恐惧 (青色区域): 价格 < -0.15 标准差。进入低估区域。
💎 极度恐惧 (绿色区域): 价格 < -0.3 标准差。历史上通常是代际级别的买入机会。
情绪评分 (0-100)
100: 极度贪婪 (顶部)
50: 公允价值
0: 极度恐惧 (底部)
5. 使用建议
周期: 仅限日线 (1D) 或周线 (1W)。
原因: 底层数据源（M2, PMI）是月度更新的。标普500和算力是日度更新的。在日内图表（如15分钟、1小时、4小时）上使用此指标没有任何意义，因为基本面数据不会变化得那么快。
长期视角: 这是一个宏观周期指标，旨在识别数月甚至数年的周期顶部和底部，而非用于日内交易。
6. 免责声明
本指标仅供教育和参考使用，不构成任何财务建议。该模型依赖于历史相关性，未来可能不再适用。所有交易均涉及风险。GW Capital 及制作者不对任何交易损失承担责任。
